A STUDY OF ASSESSING AND FORECASTING MODELS OF DROUGHT IN AGRICULTURE

Zhao Yanxia; Wang Futang; Qiu Guowang

Vol.12, NO.2, 2001

Article Contents

Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2001 > 12(2): 234-241

Zhao Yanxia, Wang Futang, Qiu Guowang. A study of assessing and forecasting models of drought in agriculture. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2001, 12(2): 234-241.

Citation:

Zhao Yanxia, Wang Futang, Qiu Guowang. A study of assessing and forecasting models of drought in agriculture. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2001, 12(2): 234-241.

Zhao Yanxia, Wang Futang, Qiu Guowang. A study of assessing and forecasting models of drought in agriculture. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2001, 12(2): 234-241.

Citation:

Zhao Yanxia, Wang Futang, Qiu Guowang. A study of assessing and forecasting models of drought in agriculture. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2001, 12(2): 234-241.

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A STUDY OF ASSESSING AND FORECASTING MODELS OF DROUGHT IN AGRICULTURE

1.
Deparment of Geophysics, Peking University, Beijing 100871
2.
Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science, Beijing 100081

Received Date: 2000-01-10
Rev Recd Date: 2000-06-13
Publish Date: 2001-05-31

Abstract

Abstract

A growth model is used in assessing and forecasting drought in order to emphasize the crop's effects on water consumption and crop's demand and sensitivity to water in different developmental stages. The verification indicates that the assessing and forecasting model of winter wheat drought is satisfactory.
- Drought;
- Assessing;
- Forecasting;
- Model

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References(8)

Figures and Tables

图 1 模拟与实测叶面积指数 (a), 土壤湿度 (b), 干物重 (c) 比较

(连线为模拟线, ■为实测值, 旬次的计算以前一年10月上旬为第1旬算起, 如15旬为2月下旬, 依次类推)

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图 2 使用两种天气资料模拟结果比较, 发育速度比较 (a) 叶面积指数比较 (b) 干物重比较 (c) 土壤湿度比较 (d)

(注:图中连线为使用数值天气模式预报的天气资料计算的结果, ■为使用实测天气资料计算的结果。旬次的计算说明同图 1。由于预报的气象资料只有1991年3~5月的, 故3月份以前也就是15旬以前使用的都是实测气象资料)

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表 1 土壤干旱标准

表 2 越冬前和拔节-灌浆期的冬小麦干旱标准

表 3 土壤水分模拟误差分布

References

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[2]	赵艳霞, 王馥棠.土壤-作物-大气连续体水分循环与作物生产关系的模拟模式研究.应用气象学报, 1997, 8(4):427~436. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=19970461&flag=1
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[5]	王树森, 邓根云.地膜覆盖下土壤水分效应的模拟研究.华北农学报, 1990, 5(1): 46~50. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-HBNB199001008.htm
[6]	裴步祥.蒸发和蒸散的测定与计算.北京:气象出版社, 1989.
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