ACCURACY EVALUATION OF SHORT-CLIMATIC FORECAST ON TROPICAL CYCLONE FREQUENCY

The tropical cyclone frequency (TCF) is actually a certain integer, but these exists uncertainty in the subjective and objective short-climatic forecasts, so the contiguous degree must be evaluated. In order to evaluate the accuracy of short-climatic forecasting on TCF, fistly three parameters, determine index (d), absolute error (E) and skill score (S), are defined comparatively with climatic probability forecast (CPF) which was regard as naught forecast. Then, the accuracy was evaluated of subjective forecast from 1988 to 1997. The results indicate: d, E and S of typhoon season are 0.3, 1.7 and 0.06; d, E and S of July are 0.9, 0.8 and 0.06; d、E and S of August are 0.7, 0.75 and 0.13; d, E and S of September are 0.65, 0.9 and 0.01, respectively.