THE DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF THE OPERATIONAL ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM AT NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL CENTER

Li Zechun; Chen Dehui

Vol.13, NO.1, 2002

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Li Zechun, Chen Dehui. The development and application of the operational ensemble prediction system at National Meteorological Center. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2002, 13(1): 1-15.

Citation:

Li Zechun, Chen Dehui. The development and application of the operational ensemble prediction system at National Meteorological Center. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2002, 13(1): 1-15.

Li Zechun, Chen Dehui. The development and application of the operational ensemble prediction system at National Meteorological Center. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2002, 13(1): 1-15.

Citation:

Li Zechun, Chen Dehui. The development and application of the operational ensemble prediction system at National Meteorological Center. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2002, 13(1): 1-15.

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THE DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF THE OPERATIONAL ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM AT NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL CENTER

National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081

Received Date: 2001-05-25
Rev Recd Date: 2001-06-28
Publish Date: 2002-02-28

Abstract

Abstract

The basic concepts of the Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) are addressed. A brief review is given on the development and implementation of the operational EPS at National Meteorological Center (NMC): the main components and their functions of the EPS/NMC, the interpretation of the EPS’ products and the routine uses in the Weather Forecast Offices (WFO). The future development issues of the EPS, the national-wide uses of the EPS products in the provincial WFO over China are discussed.
- Numerical ensemble prediction;
- Operational system;
- Interpretation of the model output products;
- National meteorological center

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References(31)

Figures and Tables

图 1 利用时间滞后方法生成集合预报模式初值

(虚线表示“过去” 时刻，生成初值；实线表示“未来” 时刻，集合预报)

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图 2 国家气象中心第一代中期集合数值预报试验系统T63L16/ LAF 第1~5 天

(第1 候)预报平均北半球500 hPa 距平相关系数(1996 年9 月下旬~11 月，8 次个例过程)

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图 3 国家气象中心第一代中期集合数值预报试验系统T63L16/ LAF 第6~10 天

(第2 候)预报平均北半球500 hPa 距平相关系数(1996 年9 月下旬~11 月，8 次个例过程)

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图 4 神威集合预报系统运行流程结构图

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图 5 2000 年4~10 月逐日西风指数的分析与5 天集合预报比较

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图 6 集合数值预报(平均)和控制预报北半球500 hPa 高度场检验:均方根误差(a)距平相关系数(b)

(SV 为奇异量的预报，LAF 为时间滞后的预报，CRL 为控制预报)

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图 7 500 hPa 高度场(粗实线表示降雨区域)

(a)2000 年6 月1 日实况，(b)4 天集合预报，(c)4 天业务预报，(d)5 天集合预报

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表 1 ECMWF 各业务系统所需计算机资源比较

表 2 并行效率表

表 3 ECMWF、美国和加拿大等国集合预报业务系统

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