Vol.13, NO.1, 2002
Turn off MathJax
Article Contents
Article Navigation >  Journal of Applied Meteorological Science  > 2002  >  13(1): 16-28
Jun Du. Present situation and prospects of ensemble numerical prediction. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2002, 13(1): 16-28.
Citation: Jun Du. Present situation and prospects of ensemble numerical prediction. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2002, 13(1): 16-28.
shu

PRESENT SITUATION AND PROSPECTS OF ENSEMBLE NUMERICAL PREDICTION

  • National Centers for Environmental Prediction/ NOAA, Washington DC, USA

  • Received Date: 2001-05-02
  • Rev Recd Date: 2001-07-08
  • Publish Date: 2002-02-28
    Abstract
  • Over the past few years ensemble prediction has come to the fore as a major element in defining the future of numerical weather prediction (NWP) and operational weather forecasting. This stems basically from convergence of increasing recognition of the importance of explicitly addressing the intrinsic uncertainties in forecasts (originated from both initial conditions and model physics) with rapid advance in expanding capability to provide quantitative estimates of those uncertainties. It is widely agreed that ensemble based probabilities and measures of confidence hold the best potential for enhancing the ability to make user dependent informed decisions. Indeed, the U. S. National Weather Service is requiring that many forecast products evolve to probabilistic in nature, especially for quantitative precipitation forecasting. In this paper, the basic concepts, outstanding issues and recent development of ensemble technique are briefly described, which include (1) how to establish and validate an ensemble forecasting system; (2) how to correctly represent intrinsic uncertainties in both initial conditions and model physics; and (3) how to extract useful information out of an ensemble of forecasts and how to interpret and evaluate ensemble products especially probabilistic forecasts. Besides its application to direct weather forecasting, application of ensemble technique to adaptive observation and data assimilation are also mentioned.
    • FullText(HTML)
    References(61)
  • [1]
    Lorenz E N. A study of the predictability of a 28-variable atmospheric model. Tellus, 1965, 17: 321-333. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/227661690_A_Study_of_the_Predictability_of_a_28-Variable_Atmospheric_Model
    [2]
    Epstein E S. Stochastic dynamic prediction. Tellus, 1969, 21, 739-759.
    [3]
    Leith C E. Theoretical skill of Monte Carlo forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 1974, 102:409-418. doi:  10.1175/1520-0493(1974)102<0409:TSOMCF>2.0.CO;2
    [4]
    杜钧. 集合预报概论. 东亚季风和中国暴雨, 北京:气象出版社, 1998. 457-462.
    [5]
    Mullen S L, Du J. Monte Carlo forecasts of explosive cyclogenesis with a limited-area, mesoscale model. Preprints, 10th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Portland, Oregon, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 1994. 638-640.
    [6]
    Stensrud D J, Bao J, Warner T. Using initial condition and model physics perturbation in short-range ensemble simulations of mesoscale connective system. Mon. Wea Rev., 2000, 128:2077-2107. doi:  10.1175/1520-0493(2000)128<2077:UICAMP>2.0.CO;2
    [7]
    Mylne K R, Evans R E, Clark R T. Multi-model multi-analysis ensemble forecasting in quasi-operational medium range forecasting. submitted to Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 2000.
    [8]
    Talagrand O, Vautard R, Strauss B. Evaluation of probabilistic prediction systems. Proc. ECMWF Workshop on Predictability, Reading, United Kingdom, ECMWF, 1997. 1-26.
    [9]
    Hamill T M, Colucci S J. Verification of Eta-RSM short-range ensemble forecasts. Mon. Wea Rev., 1997, 125:1312-1327. doi:  10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<1312:VOERSR>2.0.CO;2
    [10]
    Whitaker J S, Loughe A F. The relationship between ensemble spread and ensemble mean skill. Mon. Wea Rev., 1998, 126:3292-3302. doi:  10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<3292:TRBESA>2.0.CO;2
    [11]
    Stensrud D J, Brooks J H E, Du J, Tracton M S, Rogers E. Using ensembles for short-range forecasting. Mon. Wea Rev., 1999, 127:433-446. doi:  10.1175/1520-0493(1999)127<0433:UEFSRF>2.0.CO;2
    [12]
    Mullen S L, Baurahefner D P. Monte Carlo simulations of explosive cyclogenesis. Mon. Wea Rev., 1994, 122:1548-1567. doi:  10.1175/1520-0493(1994)122<1548:MCSOEC>2.0.CO;2
    [13]
    Du, J, Mullen S L, Sanders F. Short-range ensemble forecasting of quantitative precipitation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 1997, 125:2427-2459. doi:  10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<2427:SREFOQ>2.0.CO;2
    [14]
    Tracton M S, Du J. Short-range ensemble forecasting (SREF) at the National Centers for Environment Prediction. Preprints of 12th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Phoenix, Arizona, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 1998. 269-272.
    [15]
    Molteni F, Palmer T N, Buizza R, Pertroliagis T. The ECMWF ensemble prediction system methodology and verification. Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc., 1996, 122:73-121. doi:  10.1002/(ISSN)1477-870X
    [16]
    Toth Z, Kalnay E. Ensemble forecasting at NMC, the generation of perturbations. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 1993, 74:2317-2330. doi:  10.1175/1520-0477(1993)074<2317:EFANTG>2.0.CO;2
    [17]
    Toth Z, Kalnay E. Ensemble forecasting at NCEP and the breeding method. Mon. Wea Rev., 1997, 125:3297-3319. doi:  10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<3297:EFANAT>2.0.CO;2
    [18]
    Barkmeijer J, Buizza R, Palmer T N. 3D-Var Hussein singular vectors and their potential use in the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor, Soc., 1999, 125:2333-2351. doi:  10.1002/(ISSN)1477-870X
    [19]
    Houtekamer P L, Derome J. Methods for ensemble prediction. Mon. Wea Rev., 1995, 123: 2181-2196. doi:  10.1175/1520-0493(1995)123<2181:MFEP>2.0.CO;2
    [20]
    Sindic-Rancic G, Toth Z, Lalnay E. Storm scale ensemble experiments with the ARPS model preliminary results. Preprints, 12th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Phoenix, Arizona, Amer. Meteor. Soc. 1998. 279-280.
    [21]
    Mullen S L, Du J, Sanders F. The dependence of ensemble dispersion on analysis forecast system implications to short-range ensemble forecasting of precipitation. Mon. Wea Rev., 1999, 127:1674-1686. doi:  10.1175/1520-0493(1999)127<1674:TDOEDO>2.0.CO;2
    [22]
    Hamill T M, Colucci S J. Perturbations to the land-surface condition in short-range ensemble forecasts. Preprints, 12th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Phoenix, Arizona, Amber, Meteor. Soc., 1998a. 273-276.
    [23]
    Buizza R, Miller M, Palmer T N. Stochastic representation of model uncertainties in the ECMWF EPS. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor, Soc., 1999, 125:2887-2908. doi:  10.1002/qj.49712556006
    [24]
    Houtekamer P L, Lefaivre L, Derome J, et al. A system simulation approach to ensemble prediction. Mon. Wea Rev., 1996, 124: 1225-1242. doi:  10.1175/1520-0493(1996)124<1225:ASSATE>2.0.CO;2
    [25]
    Stensrud D J, Bao J, Warner T. Using initial condition and model physics perturbation in short-range ensemble simulations of mesoscale connective system. Mon. Wea Rev., 2000, 128:2077-2107. doi:  10.1175/1520-0493(2000)128<2077:UICAMP>2.0.CO;2
    [26]
    Mylne K R. Decision-making from probability forecasts using calculations of forecast value. Submitted to Meteorl. Appl. 2000.
    [27]
    Hou D, Kalnay E, Droegemeler K K. Objective verification of the SAMEX'98 ensemble forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 2001, 129:73-91. doi:  10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<0073:OVOTSE>2.0.CO;2
    [28]
    Du J, Tracton M S. Impact of lateral boundary conditions on regional-model ensemble prediction. In: H. Ritchie, ed. Research Activities in Atmospheric and Oceanic Modeling. Report 28, CAS/JSC Working Group Numerical Experimentation (WGNE), WMO/TD-No. 1999.
    [29]
    Warner T T, Peterson R A, Treadon R E. A tutorial on lateral boundary conditions as a basic and potentially serious limitation to regional numerical prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 1997, 78: 2599-2617. doi:  10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<2599:ATOLBC>2.0.CO;2
    [30]
    Zhang Z, Krishnamurti T N. Ensemble forecasting of hurricane tracks. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 1998, 78:2785-2795.
    [31]
    Eckel F A, Walter M K. Calibrated probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts based on the MRF ensemble. Wea. Forecasting, 1998, 13:1132-1147. doi:  10.1175/1520-0434(1998)013<1132:CPQPFB>2.0.CO;2
    [32]
    Zhu Y, Toth A, Kalnay E, et al. Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts based on the NCEP global ensemble. Preprints, 16th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Phoenix, Arizona, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 1998. 8-11.
    [33]
    Aberson S D, Lord J, DeMaria M, et al. Short-range ensemble forecasting of hurricane tracks. Preprints. The 21st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Miami, Florida, Amer. Meteor, Soc., 1995. 494-496.
    [34]
    Aberson S D, Bender M A, Tuleya R E. Ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclone tracks. Preprints. The 12nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Phoenix, Arizona, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 1998a. 290-292.
    [35]
    Aberson S D, Bender M A, Tuleya R E. Ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclone intensity. Preprints, Symposium on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change, Phoenix, Arizona, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 1998b. 150-153.
    [36]
    Cheung K K W, Chan J C L. Ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclone motion using a barotropical model, Part I:Perturbations of the environment. Mon. Wea. Rev., 1999a, 127: 1229-1243. doi:  10.1175/1520-0493(1999)127<1229:EFOTCM>2.0.CO;2
    [37]
    Cheung K K W, Chan J C L. Ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclone motion using a barotropical model. Part II:Perturbations of the vertex. Mon. Wea. Rev., 1999b, 127:2617-2640.
    [38]
    Du J. Applications of Monte Carlo method in short-range weather forecasting precipitation and connective activity. Preprints, 13 th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, San Francisco, California, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 1996. 281-290.
    [39]
    Hamill T M, Colucci S J. Evaluation of Eta-RSM ensemble probabilistic precipitation forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 1998b, 126:711-724. doi:  10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<0711:EOEREP>2.0.CO;2
    [40]
    Du J, Mullen S L, Sanders F. Removal of distortion error from an ensemble forecast. Mon. Wea. Rev., 2000, 128:2427-3351.
    [41]
    Wilks D S. Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. Academic Press, 1995. 467.
    [42]
    Murphy A H. A new vector partition of the probability score. J. Appl. Meteor., 1975, 12:595-600. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/234395762_A_New_Vector_Partition_of_the_Probability_Score
    [43]
    Murphy A H. The value of climatological, categorical and probabilistic forecasts in the cost-lost situation. Mon. Wea Rev., 1977, 105:803-816. doi:  10.1175/1520-0493(1977)105<0803:TVOCCA>2.0.CO;2
    [44]
    Richardson D. Skill and relative economic value of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc., 2000, 126(Part B):649-667. http://www.citeulike.org/user/eimaj42jdp/article/244699
    [45]
    Toth Z. Ensemble forecasting in WRF. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 2001, 82:695-697. doi:  10.1175/1520-0477(2001)082<0695:MSEFIW>2.3.CO;2
    [46]
    Buizza R. Potential forecast skill of ensemble prediction and spread and skill distributions of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Mon. Wea Rev., 1997, 125:99-119. doi:  10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<0099:PFSOEP>2.0.CO;2
    [47]
    Evans R E, Harrison M S J, Graham R J, et al. Joint medium-range ensembles from the Met. Office and ECMWF systems. Mon. Wea Rev., 2000, 128:3104-3127. doi:  10.1175/1520-0493(2000)128<3104:JMREFT>2.0.CO;2
    [48]
    Brooks H E, Tracton M S, Stensrud D J, et al. Short-range ensemble forecasting (SREF). Report from a workshop. Bull. Amer. Met, Soc., 1995, 76: 1617-1624.
    [49]
    Du J, Mullen S L. Application of MM4 in short-range ensemble forecasting of 2nd-order physical variables. Preprints, 5th Workshop on PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Modeling System, Boulder, Colder, Colorado, MMM, NCAR, 1995. 9-10.
    [50]
    Du J, Tracton M S. Implementation of real-time short-range ensemble forecasting system at NCEP, an update. Preprints, 9th Conference on Mesoscale Processes, Ft. Lauderdale, Florida, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 2000. in press.
    [51]
    Black T L. The new NMC mesoscale Eat model description and forecast examples. Wea. Forecasting, 1994, 9:265-278. doi:  10.1175/1520-0434(1994)009<0265:TNNMEM>2.0.CO;2
    [52]
    Juang H M, Kanamitsu. The NMC nested regional spectral model. Mon. Wea Rev., 1994, 122:3-26. doi:  10.1175/1520-0493(1994)122<0003:TNNRSM>2.0.CO;2
    [53]
    Benjamin S G, et al. The operational RUC-2. Preprints, 16th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Phoenix, Arizona, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 1998. 249-252.
    [54]
    Tracton M S, Du J. Application of the NCEP/EMC short-range ensemble forecast system (SREF) to predicting extreme precipitation events. Preprints, Symposium on Precipitation Extremes, Prediction, Impacts, and Responses, Albuquerque, New Mexico, Amer. Meteor. Soc. 2001.
    [55]
    Krzysztofowicz R. Probabilistic hydro meteorological forecasts toward a new era in operational forecasting. Bull. Amer. Soc., 1998, 79:243-251. doi:  10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079<0243:PHFTAN>2.0.CO;2
    [56]
    NWS. NWS Vision 2005-National Weather Service Strategic Plan for Weather, Water, and Climate Services 2000-2005. Maryland:NWS, 1999.
    [57]
    Toth Z, Kalnay E, Wobus R. On the economic value of ensemble based weather forecasts. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 2001, 82. in press.
    [58]
    Hamill T M, Mullen S L, Snyder C, et al. Ensemble forecasting in the short to medium range. Report from a workshop. Bull Amer. Met. Soc., 2000, 81.
    [59]
    Toth Z, et al. Ensemble-based targeted observations during FASTEX. Preprints, 12th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Phoenix. Arizona, Amer. Meteor. Soc. 1998. 24-27.
    [60]
    Houtekamer P L, Mitchell H L. Data assimilation using ensemble Kalman filter technique. Mon . Wea Rev., 1998, 126:796-811. doi:  10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<0796:DAUAEK>2.0.CO;2
    [61]
    Hamill T M, Synder C. A hybrid ensemble Kalman filter-three-dimensional variational analysis scheme. Mon. Wea. Rev., 2000, 128:2905-2919. doi:  10.1175/1520-0493(2000)128<2905:AHEKFV>2.0.CO;2
    • Relative Articles
    • Supplements(0)
    • Cited By
  • 加载中
  • -->

Catalog

    Get Citation
    PDF
    XML
    Article views (7452) PDF downloads(5444) Cited by()
    • Received : 2001-05-02
    • Accepted : 2001-07-08
    • Published : 2002-02-28
    Journal Online
    Contact

    © 2020 Journal of Applied Meteorological Science   京ICP备15006967号-1

    Supported by Beijing Renhe Information Technology Co. Ltd

    /

    DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint
    Return