THE VERIFICATION FOR ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM OF NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL CENTER

The various diagnostics, e. g. , Talagrand probability distrbution, spread, Brier score (BS), Brier Skill score (BSS), hit rate and false alarm rate are applied to the Ensemble Prediction System (the singular vector version, 32 members) at the National Meteorological Center, Beijing, China from June to October in 2000. The comparison also is conducted between Singular Vector (SV) and Lagged Averaging Forecast (LAF) methods.