APPLICATION OF THE DISTANCE OF DISPLACEMENT AND MAXIMUM CORRELATION ON THE PRODUCTS OF ECMWF ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM

Yang Xuesheng; Jean Nicolau; Nicole Girardot

Vol.13, NO.1, 2002

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Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2002 > 13(1): 37-46

Yang Xuesheng, Jean Nicolau, Nicole Girardot. Application of the distance of displacement and maximum correlation on the products of ECMWF ensemble prediction system. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2002, 13(1): 37-46.

Citation:

Yang Xuesheng, Jean Nicolau, Nicole Girardot. Application of the distance of displacement and maximum correlation on the products of ECMWF ensemble prediction system. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2002, 13(1): 37-46.

Citation:

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APPLICATION OF THE DISTANCE OF DISPLACEMENT AND MAXIMUM CORRELATION ON THE PRODUCTS OF ECMWF ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM

1.
National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081
2.
SCEM, ME TEO FRANCE, Toulouse 31057

Received Date: 2001-04-28
Rev Recd Date: 2001-06-16
Publish Date: 2002-02-28

Abstract

Abstract

A new method named the Displacement and Maximum Correlation,which is used to interpret the products of ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System(EPS) automatically, is proposed. The basic assumption is that in a certain degree, the EPS members represent the future weather situations based on the conception of weather regimes defined by the forecasters of the Medium-Range Section in Meteo France. The 500 hPa geopotential height fields from ECMWF EPS are classified. It is shown that the predictability of the atmosphere is relevant to the forecast time and the weather patterns. The new classification method is succinct and intuitive, and the large amount of information contained in the EPS is condensed dramatically. The weather regimes that influence France such as warm blocked flow (BCA), cold blocked flow (BFA), straight flow (RE) and perturbation (PE) are well predicted, but the predictability for the undulating flow (OND) is relatively poor because of its variability.
- Ensemble prediction system;
- Automatic classification;
- Weather regimes;
- Displacement and maximum correlation.;

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References(7)

Figures and Tables

图 1 由中期预报员定义的影响法国的5 类天气类型

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图 2 1998 年1 月4 日起报的5~14 日12:00UTC 500 hPa 的分析场

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图 3 1998 年1 月4 日预报的5~14 日天气类型的划分结果

(黑箭头为自动划分结果，白箭头为主观划分结果，黑白箭头均有划分结果正确)

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图 4 1998 年3 月1 日起报的3 月2~11 日12:00UTC 500 hPa 的分析场

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图 5 1998 年3 月1 日预报的2~11 日天气类型划分结果(说明同图 3)

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表 1 根据位移和最大相关距离方法对1998 年12 月6 日的集合预报产品划分的结果(5 种天气形势发生的概率)

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