THE DEVE LOPMENT OF ENSEMBLE PRODUCTS BASED ON THE SHENWEI MEDIUM-RANGE ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM

Mao Hengqing; Chen Yi; Chen Dehui

Vol.13, NO.1, 2002

Article Contents

Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2002 > 13(1): 47-55

Mao Hengqing, Chen Yi, Chen Dehui. The development of ensemble products based on the Shenwei medium-range ensemble prediction system. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2002, 13(1): 47-55.

Citation:

Mao Hengqing, Chen Yi, Chen Dehui. The development of ensemble products based on the Shenwei medium-range ensemble prediction system. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2002, 13(1): 47-55.

Mao Hengqing, Chen Yi, Chen Dehui. The development of ensemble products based on the Shenwei medium-range ensemble prediction system. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2002, 13(1): 47-55.

Citation:

Mao Hengqing, Chen Yi, Chen Dehui. The development of ensemble products based on the Shenwei medium-range ensemble prediction system. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2002, 13(1): 47-55.

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THE DEVE LOPMENT OF ENSEMBLE PRODUCTS BASED ON THE SHENWEI MEDIUM-RANGE ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM

National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081

Received Date: 2001-04-18
Rev Recd Date: 2001-06-13
Publish Date: 2002-02-28

Abstract

Abstract

Based on 32 forecast members of the Shenwei Medium-Range Ensemble Prediction System and the need of operational forecast, some new ensemble products are developed. These products include the clusters of 500 hPa height trajectories, “spaghetti” charts of special 500 hPa height contours, probability “plumes” and ensemble mean charts of 850 hPa temperature, and weather element forecasts from provincial capitals of China.
- usters of 500 hPa height trajectories;
- “Spaghetti” chart;
- Special 500 hPa height contour;
- Probability “plume”

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References(6)

Figures and Tables

图 1 离散距离分簇法原理示意图

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图 2 2001 年 3 月 5 日预报时效 7 d(上)、 8 d(中)、 9 d(下)500 hPa 高度预报分簇

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图 3 2001 年3 月3 日544(左)、576 dagpm(右)特征等高线面条图(1~10 分别为预报时效1~10 d)

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图 4 2001 年2 月26 日4 个格点的850 hPa 温度预报概率烟羽图

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图 5 2001 年2 月18 日(左)、3 月4 日(右)第1(上)、2(下)点850 hPa 温度预报集合平均

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图 6 2001 年3 月4 日主要城市温度集合平均(a)、降水概率(b)的5 d 平均预报

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References

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