THE OPERATIONAL APPLICATION OF THE SHENWEI MEDIUM-RANGE ENSEMBLE PREDICTION PRODUCTS

Mao Hengqing; Chen Yi; Chen Dehui

Vol.13, NO.1, 2002

Article Contents

Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2002 > 13(1): 56-61

Mao Hengqing, Chen Yi, Chen Dehui. The operational application of the Shenwei medium-range ensemble prediction products. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2002, 13(1): 56-61.

Citation:

Mao Hengqing, Chen Yi, Chen Dehui. The operational application of the Shenwei medium-range ensemble prediction products. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2002, 13(1): 56-61.

Mao Hengqing, Chen Yi, Chen Dehui. The operational application of the Shenwei medium-range ensemble prediction products. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2002, 13(1): 56-61.

Citation:

Mao Hengqing, Chen Yi, Chen Dehui. The operational application of the Shenwei medium-range ensemble prediction products. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2002, 13(1): 56-61.

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THE OPERATIONAL APPLICATION OF THE SHENWEI MEDIUM-RANGE ENSEMBLE PREDICTION PRODUCTS

National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081

Received Date: 2001-04-18
Rev Recd Date: 2001-06-13
Publish Date: 2002-02-28

Abstract

Abstract

The products issued by the Shenwei Medium-range Ensemble Prediction System include the ensemble mean of 500 hPa height fields, the probabilities of 850 hPa temperature anomalies, and probabilities of rainfall. The ensemble-mean of 500 hPa height fields has been used in the forecast of the Eurasia circulation pattern, the sandstorm in spring, the rain process, and the change tendency of the subtropical high in summer. The probabilities of 850 hPa temperature anomalies are very useful in the forecast of temperature change tendency and cold air processes. The probabilities of rainfall have been used by forecasters directly.
- Ensemble prediction;
- Ensemble mean;
- Probability

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References(8)

Figures and Tables

图 1 2000 年4 月~2001 年2 月逐日亚洲(65°~155°E 45°~65°N)西风指数(实线)及其120 h 集合预报平均(虚线)a:2000 年4~8 月，b:2000 年9 月~2001 年2 月

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图 2 2001 年4 月29 日500 hPa 高度分析场(a)与相应的96 h 集合预报场(b)

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图 3 2000 年6 月1 日500 hPa 高度分析场(a)与120 h 集合预报(b)

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图 4 2000 年11 月6~12 日全国强冷空气过程的降温幅度(a)与过程最低温度距平(b)

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图 5 2000 年11 月5 日120 h 预报850 hPa 温度距平小于等于-4 ℃(左)、-8 ℃(右)的概率

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图 6 2001 年1 月23 日08:00~25 日08:00 的降水区(左)与对应时段内60 h 预报降水概率60 %以上的区域(右)

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References

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