THE COMPARISON EXPERIMENTS OF SV AND LAF INITIAL PERTURBATION TECHNIQUES USED AT THE NMC ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM

Yang Xuesheng; Chen Dehui; Leng Tingbo; Huang Zhuo

Vol.13, NO.1, 2002

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Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2002 > 13(1): 62-66

Yang Xuesheng, Chen Dehui, Leng Tingbo, et al. The comparison experiments of SV and LAF initial perturbation techniques used at the NMC ensemble prediction system. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2002, 13(1): 62-66.

Citation:

Yang Xuesheng, Chen Dehui, Leng Tingbo, et al. The comparison experiments of SV and LAF initial perturbation techniques used at the NMC ensemble prediction system. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2002, 13(1): 62-66.

Citation:

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THE COMPARISON EXPERIMENTS OF SV AND LAF INITIAL PERTURBATION TECHNIQUES USED AT THE NMC ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM

1.
National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081
2.
North Computation Center, Beijing 100091

Received Date: 2001-04-28
Rev Recd Date: 2001-06-28
Publish Date: 2002-02-28

Abstract

Abstract

The Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) at NMC is briefly described. It mainly includes such seven parts as the data pre-processing, optimal interpolation analysis, the forecasting model (T106L19), the computation of initial perturbations based on singular vectors, post-processing, the generation of ensemble products and the system monitoring. The configuration of EPS compromises one control forecast started from the unperturbed analysis and 31 perturbed forecasts started from the perturbed analysis. Then the lagged average forecasting (LAF) scheme with 12 members is proposed and implemented at the SW-1 computer. The comparison experiments are conducted by using different initial perturbation techniques. One is SV (singular vectors), the other is LAF. The results show that the performance of SV is better than that of LAF in most of the verified regions and lead times, both for the anomaly correlation coefficients and the root mean square errors.
- Singular vector;
- Lagged average forecasting;
- Ensemble prediction system;
- Initial perturbation

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Figures and Tables

1(a) 亚洲和北半球集合预报(平均)与控制预报(CRL)500 hPa高度场检验距平相关系数对比图(---SV … …LAF -·-·C RL，下同)

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1(b) 亚洲和北半球集合预报(平均)与控制预报500 hPa高度场检验均方根误差对比图

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2(a) 欧洲和北美集合预报(平均)与控制预报500 hPa高度场检验距平相关系数对比图

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2(b) 欧洲和北美集合预报(平均)与控制预报500 hPa高度场检验均方根误差对比图

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3(a) 高纬和低纬集合预报(平均)与控制预报500 hPa高度场检验距平相关系数对比图

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3(b) 高纬和低纬集合预报(平均)与控制预报(CRL)500 hPa高度场检验均方根误差对比图

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

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