A BRIEF REVIEWON THE DEVELOPMENT OF ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM

Chen Jing; Chen Dehui; Yan Hong

Vol.13, NO.4, 2002

Article Contents

Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2002 > 13(4): 497-507

Chen Jing, Chen Dehui, Yan Hong. A brief review on the development of ensemble prediction system. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2002, 13(4): 497-507.

Citation:

Chen Jing, Chen Dehui, Yan Hong. A brief review on the development of ensemble prediction system. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2002, 13(4): 497-507.

Chen Jing, Chen Dehui, Yan Hong. A brief review on the development of ensemble prediction system. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2002, 13(4): 497-507.

Citation:

Chen Jing, Chen Dehui, Yan Hong. A brief review on the development of ensemble prediction system. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2002, 13(4): 497-507.

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A BRIEF REVIEWON THE DEVELOPMENT OF ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM

1.
Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081
2.
China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081

Received Date: 2000-12-27
Rev Recd Date: 2001-04-28
Publish Date: 2002-08-31

Abstract

Abstract

The main issues of the Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) are presented, such as ensemble prediction concepts, the structure of an EPS, approaches for generating initial perturbation, interpretation and application schemes of EPS outputs. The recent advancements and progresses of the operational implementation and research results of EPS are systematically summarized, as well as the projects of EPS development in the developed countries.
- Ensemble prediction system;
- Initial perturbation;
- Interpretation and application;

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References(28)

Figures and Tables

图 1 集合预报系统结构图

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图 2 2月13日预报的2月13~18日热带气旋路径图

(引自文献[18]，小圆表示集合成员的预报)

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图 3 管形聚类法示意

(引自文献[17]，中央类位于集合平均附近，用距集合平均极端最远的成员位置定义管端和管形类别)

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图 4 ECMWF T L255集合预报模式从23日积分到26日的42 h集合预报海平面气压场邮票图

(引自文献[18]，深色区的气压低于980 hPa，第一排从左向右分别是T L159，T L319确定性预报和实况图，第2至第5排是50个集合成员预报结果)

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表 1 ECMWF、美国和加拿大等国集合预报业务系统

表 2 初始扰动产生方法

References

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