DETECTION AND EVALUATION OF EFFECTOF HUMAN ACTIVITIES ON CLIMATIC CHANGE IN EAST ASIA IN RECENT 30 YEARS

In the context of annual and seasonal mean observations of temperature, precipitation, diurnal temperature range, vapor pressure from 1961 to 1990, investigated is climatic changes over East Asia due to the effect of greenhouse and anthropogenic sulfate aerosol based on five IPCC models (ECHAM4, HADCM2, GFDL, CGCM1, CSIRO).Results showthat minimum temperature is closer to observations w hen considering the ef fect of CO₂ +SO₂ than only CO₂ in winter.Result s indicate that these models certainly have the capability of modeling climatic changes in East Asia, but they create systematic errors.In the light of correlation coefficient, the study shows that temperature modeling is the best; the second is vapor pressure and precipitation; then diurnal temperature range.For all variables, the spatial distributions in winter are simulated best.Generally speaking, ECHAM4 and HADCM2 arethe best in simulating climatic changes over East Asia in f ive models.