Contrast Study of Model Atmospheric Monthly-scale Predictability

Fan Xiaoqing; Li Weijing; Zhang Peiqun

Vol.14, NO.1, 2003

Article Contents

Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2003 > 14(1): 49-60

Fan Xiaoqing, Li Weijing, Zhang Peiqun. Contrast study of model atmospheric monthly-scale predictability. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2003, 14(1): 49-60.

Citation:

Fan Xiaoqing, Li Weijing, Zhang Peiqun. Contrast study of model atmospheric monthly-scale predictability. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2003, 14(1): 49-60.

Fan Xiaoqing, Li Weijing, Zhang Peiqun. Contrast study of model atmospheric monthly-scale predictability. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2003, 14(1): 49-60.

Citation:

Fan Xiaoqing, Li Weijing, Zhang Peiqun. Contrast study of model atmospheric monthly-scale predictability. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2003, 14(1): 49-60.

PDF( 1590 KB)

Contrast Study of Model Atmospheric Monthly-scale Predictability

National Climate Center , Beijing 100081

Received Date: 2001-08-31
Rev Recd Date: 2001-12-24
Publish Date: 2003-02-28

Abstract

Abstract

Based on the observed 500 hPa height, the monthly scale predictability of short-term climate variation by the method of Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) is studied, and the influences of the predictability of different scale movements on the whole predictability are also examined. The predictability of 500 hPa height simulated by the ECMWF T63 spectrum model and forecasted by the National Climate Center T63 spectrum model with the same method is researched. The results show that the atmospheric predictability of two models is much smaller than the actual atmospheric predictability, especially for the movements of wave number 0-3, which have the most important influence on the whole atmospheric movement. Therefore there is plenty of potential skill to improve the climate model if the forecasting of wave number 0-3 movements is improved.
- Short-term climate variety;
- Analysis of Variance (ANOVA);
- predictability

FullText(HTML)

References(10)

Figures and Tables

图 1 全球12月平均全波与1~3波 (a), 4~9波 (b) 模拟与实况的距平相关系数分布

(纵坐标:全波模拟与实况的ACC, 横坐标:1~3波 (a)、4~9波 (b) 模拟与实况的ACC)

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

图 2 ECMWF资料1979~1993年12月500 hPa高度场全波 (a)、0~3波 (b) 以及4波以上 (c) 的F值分布 (阴影区表示具有可预报性 (信度97.5 %下的F-检验))

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

图 3 ECMWF资料1979~1993年6月500 hPa高度场全波 (a)、0~3波 (b) 以及4波以上 (c) 的F值分布 (阴影区表示具有可预报性 (信度97.5 %下的F-检验)

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

图 4 1979~1993年12月 (a)、6月 (b) 实际大气4种划分的全球总面积的百分比

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

图 5 T63模式1979~1992年12月500 hPa高度场全波 (a)、0~3波 (b) 及4波以上 (c) 的F值分布 (阴影区表示具有可预报性 (信度97.5 %下的F-检验))

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

图 6 T63模式1979~1993年6月500 hPa高度场全波 (a)、0~3波 (b) 以及4波以上 (c) 的F值分布 (阴影区表示具有可预报性 (信度97.5 %下的F-检验))

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

图 7 ECMWF模式大气1979~1992年12月 (a)、6月 (b)4种划分的面积占全球面积的百分比

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

图 8 月动力延伸预报模式6月500 hPa高度场全波 (a)、0~3波 (b) 以及4波以上 (c) 的F值分布 (阴影区表示具有可预报性 (信度97.5 %下的F-检验))

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

References

[1]	Shukla J, Gutzler D S. Interannual variability and predictability of 500mb geopotential heights over the northern hemisphere. Mon. Wea. Rev., 1983, 111: 1273～1279.
[2]	Trenberth K E. Potential predictability of geopotential heights over the southern hemisphere. Mon. Wea. Rev., 1984, 113: 54～64.
[3]	Shukla J. Dynamical predictability of monthly means. J. Atmos. Sci., 1981, 38(12): 2547～2572.
[4]	赵彦, 郭裕福,袁重光,等. 短期气候数值预测可预报性问题. 应用气象学报, 2000,11(增刊): 64～71. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YYQX2000S1007.htm
[5]	李维京. 月尺度动力延伸预报进展. 李维京,纪立人主编. 月动力延伸预报研究. 北京:气象出版社, 2000. 1～9.
[6]	李崇银. 气候动力学引论(第二版). 北京: 气象出版社, 2000. 431.
[7]	Trenberth K E. Persistence of daily geopotential heights over the Southern Hemisphere. Mon. Wea. Rev., 1984, 113: 38～53.
[8]	Leith C E. The standard error of time-average estimates of climatic means. J. Appl. Meteor., 1973, 12: 1066～1069.
[9]	龚建东. 统计与动力相结合改进月动力延伸预报的研究: [博士论文]. 甘肃: 兰州大学, 1999.
[10]	陈伯民. 改进动力延伸月预报的一种新方法: [博士论文]. 北京: 中国科学院大气物理研究所, 2000.