APPLICATION OF A NEW DOWNSCALING MODEL TO MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FORECAST

Chen Lijuan; Li Weijing; Zhang Peiqun; Wang Jingui

Vol.14, NO.6, 2003

Article Contents

Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2003 > 14(6): 648-655

Chen Lijuan, Li Weijing, Zhang Peiqun, et al. Application of a new downscaling model to monthly precipitation forecast. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2003, 14(6): 648-655.

Citation:

Chen Lijuan, Li Weijing, Zhang Peiqun, et al. Application of a new downscaling model to monthly precipitation forecast. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2003, 14(6): 648-655.

Chen Lijuan, Li Weijing, Zhang Peiqun, et al. Application of a new downscaling model to monthly precipitation forecast. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2003, 14(6): 648-655.

Citation:

Chen Lijuan, Li Weijing, Zhang Peiqun, et al. Application of a new downscaling model to monthly precipitation forecast. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2003, 14(6): 648-655.

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APPLICATION OF A NEW DOWNSCALING MODEL TO MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FORECAST

1.
National Climate Center, Beijing 100081
2.
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029
3.
Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039

Received Date: 2002-08-27
Rev Recd Date: 2003-02-18
Publish Date: 2003-12-31

Abstract

Abstract

A relationship between monthly mean precipitation and monthly mean circulation represented by 500 hPa geo-potential height was given to combine dynamical and statistical approaches. The physical explanations of monthly mean circulation and precipitation were also presented. Statistical weights of each item of the relationship (the downscaling model) were derived from the monthly NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data (500 hPa) and China's observed precipitation data during the control period from January of 1951 to December of 1991. The hindcast test was conducted using those data from January of 1992 to December of 2001. The test indicates that the method (new model) has a high score skill for monthly mean precipitation forecast. Comparison of monthly forecast of precipitation amounts between the issued operational forecast and the new model using the 500 hPa height forecast obtained from T63/NCC GCM from January to June 2002 shows that the new model forecast has a higher score than the issued operational forecast result.
- Downscaling;
- Dynamical and statistical approaches;
- Precipitation forecast

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References(8)

Figures and Tables

图 1 NCEP/NCAR应用试验平均结果---月降水距平百分率评估

(a) 准确率 (Pc %)(b) 距平相关系数 (ACC)

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图 2 1998年7月NCEP/ NCAR应用试验结果与实况 (均为降水距平百分率)

(a) 表示式 (1) 右端第一项的贡献，(b) 表示式 (1) 右端第二项的贡献，(c) 表示式 (1) 右端第三项的贡献，(d) 表示式 (1) 右端第四项的贡献，(e) 表示式 (1) 右端五项相加的结果，(f) 表示实况

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图 3 2000年7月NCEP/ NCAR应用试验结果与实况

(说明同图 2)

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图 4 采用T63形势预报的2002年5月降水预报图 (a) 和实况 (b)

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表 1 2002年1~6月T63预报试验的降水预报与业务预报的评估对比

References

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