A CALCULATION OF CONVECTIVE ENERGY AND THE METHOD OF SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTING

Li Yaodong; Gao Shouting; Liu Jianwen

Vol.15, NO.1, 2004

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Li Yaodong, Gao Shouting, Liu Jianwen. A calculation of convective energy and the method of severe weather forecasting. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2004, 15(1): 10-20.

Citation:

Li Yaodong, Gao Shouting, Liu Jianwen. A calculation of convective energy and the method of severe weather forecasting. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2004, 15(1): 10-20.

Li Yaodong, Gao Shouting, Liu Jianwen. A calculation of convective energy and the method of severe weather forecasting. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2004, 15(1): 10-20.

Citation:

Li Yaodong, Gao Shouting, Liu Jianwen. A calculation of convective energy and the method of severe weather forecasting. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2004, 15(1): 10-20.

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A CALCULATION OF CONVECTIVE ENERGY AND THE METHOD OF SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTING

1.
I nstitute of Atmospheric Physics , Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing 100029
2.
Beijing Aviation Meteorological Institute , Beijing 100085

Received Date: 2003-01-24
Rev Recd Date: 2003-05-22
Publish Date: 2004-02-29

Abstract

Abstract

Two methods-pseudo equivalent potential temperature conservation and reversible moist adiabatic process are reviewed to deal with moist adiabatic process .Modified convective available potential energy (MCAPE) is int roduced to modify CAPE by presenting the gravitational effect of the condensed liquid water in upward convection .Modified downdraft convective available potential energy (MDCAPE) is defined to modify DCAPE by considering the dragging effect of liquid water .Real case studies show that liquid water plays more significant roles in rising parcel by diminishing CAPE largely than it does in downward f low by increasing DCAPE tenderly .Reversible moist adiabatic process is recommended in calculating MCAPE and MDCAPE .A synthetic multi-indicator superposition method is developed to predict the unstable and severe weather area based on the diagnosis of numerical model output .Experiment shows that the skill is practicable to both MM5 and Chinese National Meteorological Center T106 model output s.
- Reversible moist adiabatic process;
- MCAPE;
- MDCAPE;
- Synthetic multi-indicator superposition;
- Severe weather forecasting

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References(18)

Figures and Tables

图 1 1998年8月3日20:00北京站探空分析图

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图 2 同图 1，抬升起点为897.0 hPa

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图 3 2000年7月3日08:00北京站探空分析图

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图 4 2000年7月3日08:00北京站湿球位温垂直结构

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图 5 1997年8月31日20:00 24 h 强天气预报落区与9月1日20:00强天气发生实况图

(综合多指标叠套预报有强天气的格点以圆圈标识，站点发生强天气以黑点标识，没有强天气的站点以浅色点标识位置)

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图 6 2000年5月6日20:00 24 h 对流有效位能预报图

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图 7 2000年5月6日20:00 24 h 强天气威胁指数预报图

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图 8 2000年5月6日20:00 24 h雷暴落区预报

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图 9 2000年5月7日20:00实际强对流天气落区

(图中“ ○” 点为强对流天气发生地点)

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References

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