Liu Huanzhu, Zhao Shengrong, Lu Zhishan, et al. Objective element forecasts at NMC—a MOS system. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2004, 15(2): 181-191.
Citation: Liu Huanzhu, Zhao Shengrong, Lu Zhishan, et al. Objective element forecasts at NMC—a MOS system. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2004, 15(2): 181-191.

OBJECTIVE ELEMENT FORECASTS AT NMC—A MOS SYSTEM

  • Received Date: 2003-02-21
  • Rev Recd Date: 2003-05-06
  • Publish Date: 2004-04-30
  • The meteorological elements such as temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind speed, cloud cover and visibility are predicted for the whole China by using the equations derived from the MOS (model output statistics) technique. The routine operational forecasts are made once daily for approximately 2230 sites. The qualities of objective element forecasts are affected by the data processing of predictors and predictands, the choice of parameters before making equation and also the choice of predictors. Therefore tremendous and careful efforts are needed. The results of the forecast verification indicate that the shortrange forecasts of max/min temperature and max/min relative humidity are reliable in most cases, but still need improvement. However, the forecast of precipitation is far from satisfaction. Its improvement requires the proper selection of predictors and full incorporations of various information obtained from different observation chances.

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    黄嘉佑. 气象统计分析与预报方法. 北京:气象出版社,2000.
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    • Received : 2003-02-21
    • Accepted : 2003-05-06
    • Published : 2004-04-30

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