ASSESSING POTENTIAL PREDICTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH BOREAL SEA ICE WITH AN AGCM

Wang Jia; Guo Yufu

Vol.15, NO.3, 2004

Article Contents

Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2004 > 15(3): 291-300

Wang Jia, Guo Yufu. Assessing potential predictability associated with boreal sea ice with an AGCM. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2004, 15(3): 291-300.

Citation:

Wang Jia, Guo Yufu. Assessing potential predictability associated with boreal sea ice with an AGCM. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2004, 15(3): 291-300.

Wang Jia, Guo Yufu. Assessing potential predictability associated with boreal sea ice with an AGCM. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2004, 15(3): 291-300.

Citation:

Wang Jia, Guo Yufu. Assessing potential predictability associated with boreal sea ice with an AGCM. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2004, 15(3): 291-300.

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ASSESSING POTENTIAL PREDICTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH BOREAL SEA ICE WITH AN AGCM

Wang Jia,
Guo Yufu

LAS G, Instit ute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029

Received Date: 2003-04-01
Rev Recd Date: 2003-06-18
Publish Date: 2004-06-30

Abstract

Abstract

The potential predictability associated alone with boreal sea ice on the seasonal to intraannual scale is studied with AGCMR15L9, the atmospheric component of LASG/IAP GOALS. With the aid of the analysis variance, it is found that the predictability index, expressed as a ratio of the external variance to the total, is weak in most regions. But as far as some low level, say 1000 hPa, variables are concerned, such as atmospheric temperature and relative humidity, stronger predictability larger than 0.5 can be found in some regions where the interannual sea ice variability is great. Compared with sea surface temperature (SST) in the lower latitude, the Boreal sea ice may have an equivalent or even stronger impact on the mid-high latitude atmospheric circulation. In addition, in some regions where the local sea ice variance is great, a greater predictability in the years of large sea ice area anomalies can be achieved than the results of the total 31 years. It means that large sea ice anomalies in some specific regions may lead to great anomalies in the corresponding atmospheric circulation.
- Boreal sea ice;
- Potential predictability;
- Local sea ice

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References(24)

Figures and Tables

图 1 31年1000 hPa大气温度场的R_e分布 (阴影表示R_e＞0.5的区域)

(a) 春季, (b) 夏季

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图 2 31年春季大气温度场的R_e分布

(a)500 hPa, (b)200 hPa

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图 3 同图 1, 但为500 hPa位势高度场的结果

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图 4 同图 1, 但为海平面气压场的结果

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图 5 R1区10个大海冰异常年1000 hPa温度场的R e分布 (阴影表示R_e＞0.5的区域)

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图 6 R2区10个大海冰异常年春季大气温度场的R_e分布 (阴影表示R_e＞0.5的区域)

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图 7 R2区10个大海冰异常年500 hPa位势高度场的R_e分布 (阴影表示R_e＞0.5的区域)

(a) 春季, (b) 夏季

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图 8 R3区春季500 hPa流函数场的R_e分布 (阴影表示R_e＞0.5的区域)

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表 1 本文主要考察的几个海冰区域

表 2 各区域的10个海冰大异常年

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