OPTIMIZATION AND PARALLEL OF TYPHOON TRACK PREDICTION MODEL IN NMC AND TRACK ERROR ANALYSES

Ma Suhong; Qu Anxiang; Zhang Yi

Vol.15, NO.3, 2004

Article Contents

Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2004 > 15(3): 322-328

Ma Suhong, Qu Anxiang, Zhang Yi. Optimization and parallel of typhoon track prediction model in NMC and track error analyses. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2004, 15(3): 322-328.

Citation:

Ma Suhong, Qu Anxiang, Zhang Yi. Optimization and parallel of typhoon track prediction model in NMC and track error analyses. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2004, 15(3): 322-328.

Ma Suhong, Qu Anxiang, Zhang Yi. Optimization and parallel of typhoon track prediction model in NMC and track error analyses. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2004, 15(3): 322-328.

Citation:

Ma Suhong, Qu Anxiang, Zhang Yi. Optimization and parallel of typhoon track prediction model in NMC and track error analyses. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2004, 15(3): 322-328.

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OPTIMIZATION AND PARALLEL OF TYPHOON TRACK PREDICTION MODEL IN NMC AND TRACK ERROR ANALYSES

1.
National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081
2.
North Computer Center, Beijing 100091

Received Date: 2003-03-19
Rev Recd Date: 2003-05-29
Publish Date: 2004-06-30

Abstract

Abstract

The Model for Typhoon Track Prediction (MTTP) on Cray 92 in National Meteorological Center (NMC) was optimized and paralleled through data paralleling and message passing on Shenwei (SW) super computer made in China and the running time could meet the requirement of operational running. The new typhoon track prediction system was set up based on this model and SW computer was put into real time running on 30 June 2002. The initial condition and lateral boundary were updated from T106L19 to T213L31. The track results show that the track forecasts from the new system are better than that from the old system (the system on Cray 92) on the whole. But the performance is different for different types of tracks: The results from the SW system are better for the northeast recurving typhoons and worse for west and northwest moving typhoons.
- Typhoon track prediction model;
- Parallel;
- Optimization

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References(7)

Figures and Tables

图 1 14个台风的24 h预报路径平均误差

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图 2 12个台风的48 h预报路径平均误差

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图 3 基于T213、T106台风预报系统西行或西北行及转向台风平均路径误差分布

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图 4 No.05台风神威机（a）和C92机（b）预报路径（O-O-为观测路径，其他路径为不同初始时刻的预报路径，时效为48h, 每12h一个点）以及48h预报路径误差（c）

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表 1 模式预报子系统并行效率测试结果

表 2 2002年基于T106台风预报系统同基于T213台风预报系统的路径预报误差比较 (km)

References

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