THE APPLICATION OF PERFECT PROGNOSIS METHOD TO GALE WIND ALONG THE GUANGDONG COAST WINTER

Based on the gradient wind theory and the statistical data of pressure field and the representative stations’winds along the Guangdong coast from 1990 to 1999, a new objective method, the perfect prognosis method, which reveals more obvious relations between the ground pressure field patterns and the winter gale wind than used to be, is proposed to distinguish the ground pressure field patterns, choose empirical factors and forecast winter gale wind along the Guangdong coast in the application of the JMA’s NWP products. The method was used in real-time operation forecast of gale wind from 2001 to 2002, the result shows that the method is capable to forecast gale wind in winter along the coast.