FORECASTING AND EVALUATION OF MM5 NUMERICAL PREDICTION IN SHANGHAI WITH GRAPES-3DVAR SCHEME

The applications of GRAPES-3DVAR in MM5 numerical prediction was introduced briefly. Meanwhile, the 3 months' (March, 2003—May, 2003) observed data of the East China and the numerical prediction results of MM5 with GRAPES-3DVAR were used for evaluating the models 'prediction ability for precipitation. Then effects of GRAPES-3DVAR on the results of MM5 numerical prediction were analyzed. The results show that GRAPES-3DVAR scheme is rather reasonable. It was indicated that 24-hour precipitation prediction with assimilation is better than those of without assimilation for most of regions in the East China and the EH value is higher with assimilation for most of regions in the East China as well.