A BRIEF REVIEWON THE DEVELOPMENT OF NOWCASTING FOR CONVECTIVE STORMS

Chen Mingxuan; Yu Xiaoding; Tan Xiaoguang; Wang Ying chun

Vol.15, NO.6, 2004

Article Contents

Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2004 > 15(6): 754-766

Chen Mingxuan, Yu Xiaoding, Tan Xiaoguang, et al. A brief review on the development of nowcasting for convective storms. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2004, 15(6): 754-766.

Citation:

Chen Mingxuan, Yu Xiaoding, Tan Xiaoguang, et al. A brief review on the development of nowcasting for convective storms. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2004, 15(6): 754-766.

Chen Mingxuan, Yu Xiaoding, Tan Xiaoguang, et al. A brief review on the development of nowcasting for convective storms. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2004, 15(6): 754-766.

Citation:

Chen Mingxuan, Yu Xiaoding, Tan Xiaoguang, et al. A brief review on the development of nowcasting for convective storms. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2004, 15(6): 754-766.

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A BRIEF REVIEWON THE DEVELOPMENT OF NOWCASTING FOR CONVECTIVE STORMS

1.
Institute of Urban Meteorology, CMA, Beijing 100089
2.
China Meteorological Ad ministration Training Center, Beijing 100081

Received Date: 2003-06-20
Rev Recd Date: 2003-08-26
Publish Date: 2004-12-31

Abstract

Abstract

Nowadays, the nowcasting technique and research for convective storms have an exciting advancement along with the rapid development of Doppler weather radar and many else meso-and micro-scale meteorological observation instruments. At present, main nowcasting techniques comprise three aspects: identification, tracking and extrapolation forecast, numerical model forecast, knowledge-based forecast technique. Cross-correlation technique and echo feature identification and algorithms are well-performed extrapolation techniques mainly based on weather radar data and are utilized by many operational nowcasting systems, but there are very short forecast period and low accuracy. Now the techniques that assimilate radar, mesonet and micro-scale data into fine meso-and micro-scale numerical models to nowcast initiation, evolution and dissipation of thunderstorms are very promising and robust. Techniques are progressing rapidly but not mature for operation. Knowledge-based nowcasting techniques are more observation-based. They combine and analyze a variety of fine meteorological data sources, including radar and satellite data, then theorize conceptual models of initiation, evolution and dissipation of thunderstorms, especially, the close relation between boundary layer convergence lines and enhanced convection, as well as integrate fine numerical models outputs initiated with or without radar data and extrapolation technique results, then build expert system of thunderstorm nowcasting to gain information about not only the development but also the initiation and dissipation of thunderstorms and convective rainfall. Verification and qualitative assessment of forecast also show that the expert systems outperform all other techniques for operational nowcasting thunderstorms and convective precipitation in accuracy and period. The expert systems are one of the primary techniques for nowcasting convective storms evolution in the near future. Auto-Nowcaster developed by NCAR is one of the state-of-the-art expert systems for nowcasting thunderstorms.
- Nowcasting;
- Algorithm;
- Expert system

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References(52)

Figures and Tables

图 1 交叉相关追踪法示意图

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图 2 TITAN对风暴单体追踪的一个例子^[19]

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图 3 使用交叉相关法对一定反射率阈值之上的区域追踪的例子^[20]

(图中箭头给出了雷达反演的风场信息)

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图 4 由TITAN系统获得的单体风暴 (a) 和多单体及超级单体风暴 (b) 个例的生命史统计结果^[23]

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图 5 Auto-Now caster (ANC) 系统流程框图

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图 6 各种预报方法对风暴临近预报准确性的定性评估^[19]

(假定各种方法预报的空间尺度均可达几公里)

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表 1 几种方法对风暴发生和消亡30 min临近预报的检验^[19]

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