PRELIMINARY RESEARCHES ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ANOMALOUS WINTER MONSOON CIRCULATION OVER EAST ASIA AND FLOOD/DROUGHT FROM APRIL TO JUNE IN GUANGDONG

Zeng Cong; Hu Situan; Liang Jianyin; Lin Liangxun; Xie Jiong guang; Ji Zhongping; Li Xiaojuan; Yi Aimin

Vol.16, NO.5, 2005

Article Contents

Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2005 > 16(5): 645-654

Zeng Cong, Hu Situan, Liang Jianyin, et al. Preliminary researches on the relationship between anomalous winter monsoon circulation over East Asia and flood/drought from April to June in Guangdong. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2005, 16(5): 645-654.

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PRELIMINARY RESEARCHES ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ANOMALOUS WINTER MONSOON CIRCULATION OVER EAST ASIA AND FLOOD/DROUGHT FROM APRIL TO JUNE IN GUANGDONG

1.
Guangz hou Central Meteorological Observatory, Guangzhou510080
2.
Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, CMA, Guangzhou510080

Received Date: 2004-11-26
Rev Recd Date: 2005-06-28
Publish Date: 2005-10-31

Abstract

Abstract

Based on 500 hPa geopotential height fields and mean position of East Asian trough, a definition of the East Asian winter monsoon index(I₅₀₀)is given.The analysis ofI₅₀₀that the winter monsoon undergo a pronounced reduction during the past 50 years.Since the year of 1987, the winter monsoon has become rather weakened.Using the seasonal precipitation data of 48 stations in Guangdong from 1954 to 2004, the grades of drought and flood from April to June are marked off and analyzed by the regional drought and flood index (W-index). Results show that there are nine severe flood years and ten severe drought years in the past 51 years.The effect of abnormal w inter monsoon on the precipitation from April to June is obvious.The strong East Asian w inter monsoon usually leads to severe drought.
- East Asian winter monsoon;
- Guangdong;
- Precipitation from April to June

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References(19)

Figures and Tables

图 1 1954～2004年I₅₀₀指数与广东48站同期冬季气温场的相关分布

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图 2 1952～2004年东亚冬季风强度指数I₅₀₀变化曲线

(虚线为5年滑动平均线)

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图 3 1954～2004年广东省前汛期区域旱涝指数W变化曲线

(虚线为5年滑动平均线)

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图 4 I₅₀₀指数和W指数的协谱P(T)、正交谱Q(T)

(实线为协谱, 虚线为正交谱)

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图 5 I₅₀₀指数和W指数的凝聚谱R(T)、落后长度谱L(T)

(实线为凝聚谱, 虚线为落后长度谱, 点划线表示信度为0.01的凝聚检验谱)

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

图 6 1954～2004年I₅₀₀和W指数5年滑动平均线图

(实线为冬季风指数I₅₀₀(×20), 虚线为旱涝指数W)

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图 7 冬季(12月至次年2月)500 hPa位势高度的距平合成图(单位:dagpm)

(a)旱年前一年冬季,(b)涝年前一年冬季

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

图 8 前汛期旱年与涝年合成的500 hPa位势高度差值图(单位:dagpm)

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表 1 旱涝指数与等级

表 2 1954～2004年广东省前汛期旱涝等级

表 3 最大步长m的变化对交叉谱的影响

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