Li Yonghua, Gao Yanghua, Han Fengqing, et al. Features of annual temperature and precipitation variety with the effects on NPP in Chongqing. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2007, 18(1): 73-79.
Citation: Li Yonghua, Gao Yanghua, Han Fengqing, et al. Features of annual temperature and precipitation variety with the effects on NPP in Chongqing. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2007, 18(1): 73-79.

Features of Annual Temperature and Precipitation Variety with the Effects on NPP in Chongqing

  • Received Date: 2005-08-08
  • Rev Recd Date: 2006-06-02
  • Publish Date: 2007-02-28
  • In terms of mean temperature and precipitation data of 34 observation stations in Chongqing from 1959 to 2001 the NPP is calculated using Leith's famous Thornthwaite Memoriae model. Based on EOF and MHF wavelet the variations of temperature, precipitation, NPP and their relations are analyzed. The effects of temperature and precipitation on NPP are discussed and the prediction results in the future and possible increase extent of the NPP in Chongqing are discovered. Results show that there are consistent distributing characters among annual temperature, precipitation and NPP in Chongqing. The variation tendency of annual temperature is descend, that of precipitation is unconspicuous, and that of NPP is descend slightly during the whole times. But they all have their own obvious staggered change features, and the variation tendency of precipitation and NPP are approximate. The variation tendency of climatic productivity strongly resembles that of rainfall in multi-time scales, but it is not consanguineous to that of temperature in less than 10 years scales. The quasi-period of temperature series is main about 10 years and those of precipitation and NPP series is main about 2 years from 1959 to 2003. The interannual oscillations of precipitation and NPP are strong, and interdecadal oscillations of temperature are strong. The increase or decrease of mean temperature or precipitation result in corresponding change of the NPP. The NPP increase by degrees while only temperature or precipitation raises. The warm-wet type climate is most advantageous for NPP but cold-dry type one is most disadvantageous. The NPP will increase 11.2% or so controlled by the former climate type but lessen 12.5% or so controlled by the latter climate type. Correlative climate prediction results show that the temperature and precipitation will both increase little and so the increase scope of the NPP in Chongqing will be 0.3%—3.9% in 2010, but 6.7%—10.0% in 2030 because the temperature and precipitation will both increase much, and 4.4%—8.4% in 2050 while the temperature will continue increase but the precipitation will increase indistinctively. In the coming 50 years the climatic variation tendency will be propitious to increase of NPP and the NPP will be top in 2030 or so.
  • Fig. 1  The 1st eigenvector of EOF analyses (a) and relevant time coefficient (b) of annual mean temperature in 1959—2001 of Chongqing (dashed line is line trend, thick solid line is 5 term polynomial fitting curve)

    Fig. 2  The 1st eigenvector of EOF analyses (a) and relevant time coefficient (b) of annual precipitation in 1959—2001 of Chongqing (others as in Fig. 1)

    Fig. 3  The 1st eigenvector of EOF analyses (a) and relevant time coefficient (b) of NPP in 1959—2001 of Chongqing (others as in Fig. 1)

    Fig. 4  The figures of correlation coefficients between relevant TEOF1 and annual mean temperature (a) or precipitation (b) and NPP (c) series in Chongqing

    Fig. 5  The air temperature, precipitation and NPP change tendencies on 20 a (a), 10 a (b) and 3 a (c) time scales and their wavelet variances (d)

    Table  1  Distribution of 34 observation stations in Chongqing

    Table  2  Percentage change of the NPP under the changing conditions of the annual mean temperature and precipitation in Chongqing (unit:%)

    Table  3  The climatic prediction results in the future and the possible increase extent of the NPP in Chongqing

  • [1]
    IPCC.Emissions Scenarios:A Special Report of Working Group Ⅲ of the Intergovernmental Panels on Climate Change.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 2000. http://www.oalib.com/references/17114442
    [2]
    David B L, Gregory P A. Climate and management contributions to recent trends in US agricultural yields.Science, 2003, 299(14):1032-1033. http://science.sciencemag.org/content/299/5609/1032
    [3]
    Reilly J, Tubieud F, Mccar1 B.US agriculture and climate change:new results.Climatic Change, 2003, 57(1):43-49. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/48856106_US_Agriculture_and_Climate_Change_New_Results
    [4]
    Pittock A B, Nix H A.The effect of change climate on Australian biomics production-A preliminary study.Climatic Change, 1986, 8 (3):243-255. doi:  10.1007/BF00161597
    [5]
    王石立, 王馥棠.气候变化对黄准海地区小麦产量可能影响的模拟实验.气象学报, 1993, 52(2):209-216.
    [6]
    张宇, 王馥棠.气候变暖对我国水稻生产可能影响的数值模拟.应用气象学报, 1995, 6(增刊):19-25. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YYQX5S1.002.htm
    [7]
    马树庆.气候变化对东北区粮食产量的影响及其适应性对策.气象学报, 1996, 54(4):484-492. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXB604.010.htm
    [8]
    李长军, 刘焕彬.山东省气候变化及其对冬小麦生产潜力的影响.气象, 2004, 30(8):49-53. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXX200408012.htm
    [9]
    周子康, 刘为纶.从减灾和提高气候资源利用效率角度探讨浙江省的粮食生产.自然资源, 1997, 19(6):1-9. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZRZY706.000.htm
    [10]
    屠其璞, 王俊德, 丁裕国, 等.气象应用概率统计学.北京:气象出版社, 1984:491-506.
    [11]
    程纯枢, 冯秀藻.中国的气候与农业.北京:气象出版社, 1991:78-81.
    [12]
    杨文坎, 李湘阁.越南北方气候与气候生产力变化的研究.南京气象学院学报, 2003, 26(4):504-515. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-NJQX200304008.htm
    [13]
    姚玉璧, 李耀辉, 王毅荣, 等.黄土高原气候与气候生产力对全球气候变化的响应.干旱地区农业研究, 2005, 23(2):202-208. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GHDQ200502042.htm
    [14]
    邓爱军, 陶诗言, 陈烈庭.我国汛期降水的EOF分析.大气科学, 1989, 13(3):289-295. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK198903004.htm
    [15]
    North G R, Bell T, Cahalan R, et al. Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal function. Mon Wea Rev, 1982, 110:699-706. doi:  10.1175/1520-0493(1982)110<0699:SEITEO>2.0.CO;2
    [16]
    刘德, 李永华, 何卷雄.重庆市夏季气温及降水变化的小波分析.高原气象, 2003, 22(2):173-178. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GYQX200302012.htm
    [17]
    刘德, 李永华, 阳作明, 等.重庆市年平均气温变化多时间尺度特征的诊断研究.应用气象学报, 2004, 15(2):252-256. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20040232&flag=1
    [18]
    Zhou Xiuji, Chen Longxun, Li Weiliang, et al. Environment and climate change in China.Annual Report (1991—1995), 1996:10-20. http://cn.bing.com/academic/profile?id=650ab4e3b40341fd380269ba9c0ad8aa&encoded=0&v=paper_preview&mkt=zh-cn
    [19]
    Chen Longxun, Shao Yongning, Dong Min, et al. Preliminary analysis of climatic variation during the last 39 years in China. Adv Atmos Sci, 1991, 8:279-288. doi:  10.1007/BF02919610
    [20]
    黄荣辉.引起我国夏季旱涝的东亚大气环流异常遥相关及其物理机制的研究.旱涝气候研究进展.北京:气象出版社, 1990:37-50. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK199001013.htm
    [21]
    王绍武.现代气候学研究进展.北京:气象出版社, 2001:80-158.
    [22]
    秦大河, 丁一汇.中国西部环境演变评估 (第二卷)———中国西部环境变化的预测.北京:科学出版社, 2002:38-41.
  • 加载中
  • -->

Catalog

    Figures(5)  / Tables(3)

    Article views (3433) PDF downloads(1691) Cited by()
    • Received : 2005-08-08
    • Accepted : 2006-06-02
    • Published : 2007-02-28

    /

    DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint