Interpretation of Monthly Dynamical Extended Range Forecast Products in Northwest China

Lin Shu; Chen Lijuan; Chen Yanshan; Li Xingmin; Li Yanchun

Vol.18, NO.4, 2007

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Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2007 > 18(4): 555-560

Lin Shu, Chen Lijuan, Chen Yanshan, et al. Interpretation of monthly dynamical extended range forecast products in Northwest China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2007, 18(4): 555-560.

Citation:

Lin Shu, Chen Lijuan, Chen Yanshan, et al. Interpretation of monthly dynamical extended range forecast products in Northwest China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2007, 18(4): 555-560.

Lin Shu, Chen Lijuan, Chen Yanshan, et al. Interpretation of monthly dynamical extended range forecast products in Northwest China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2007, 18(4): 555-560.

Citation:

Lin Shu, Chen Lijuan, Chen Yanshan, et al. Interpretation of monthly dynamical extended range forecast products in Northwest China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2007, 18(4): 555-560.

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Interpretation of Monthly Dynamical Extended Range Forecast Products in Northwest China

1.
Lanzhou Institute of Arid Meteorology, CMA, Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Disaster Reducing of Gansu, Lanzhou 730020
2.
Lanzhou Regional Climate Center, Lanzhou 730020
3.
National Climate Center, Beijing 100081
4.
Qinghai Meteorological Observatory, Xining 810001
5.
Shaanxi Meteorological Observatory, Xi'an 710015
6.
Ningxia Autonomous Regional Climate Center, Yinchuan 750001

Received Date: 2006-05-26
Rev Recd Date: 2007-04-09
Publish Date: 2007-08-31

Abstract

Abstract

Using monthly precipitation data of 163 observatory stations in Northwest China, reanalysis data of 500 hPa monthly average geopotential height from NCEP/NCAR, and monthly 500 hPa geopotential height of monthly dynamical extended range forecast, comparisons among the climatic forecast, persistence forecast, explanation test of reanalysis data, forecast experiment with the interpretation method of monthly dynamical extended range forecast products are made. The results show that the skill of the reanalysis data explanation test has the highest score, while the climatic forecast score is the lowest. The score of the interpretation method of monthly dynamical extended range forecast is a little lower than that of the interpretation test of reanalysis data, but higher than that of climatic forecast and persistence forecast. It indicates that by the spatial distribution of the PS score over Northwest China, the distribution of monthly dynamical extended range forecast is very similar with that of the analysis data of interpretation test. The regions with the highest PS score located in the south of Qinghai Province, south of Gansu Province and south of Shaanxi Province where the monthly precipitation climate value is relatively high. The regions with the lowest PS score locate in part of Xinjiang, west of Hexi of Gansu Province where the monthly precipitation climate value is relatively lower. And the downscaling tests show high skill when more data of observation stations are used.
- dynamical extended range forecast;
- interpretation;
- monthly precipitation forecast;
- Northwest China

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References(14)

Figures and Tables

图 1 1991—2000年西北地区NCEP/NCAR高度场的实况降水回报年平均PS分布图 (单位:%)

Fig. 1 The average score skill (PS) distribution of interpretation precipitation over northwest China by NCEP/NCAR 500 hPa geopotential height from 1991 to 2000 (unit:%)

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图 2 2002—2005年西北地区月动力延伸预报解释应用降水年平均PS分布图 (单位:%)

Fig. 2 The average score skill (PS) distribution of interpretation precipitation over northwest China by DERF 500 hPa geopotential height from 2002 to 2005 (unit:%)

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图 3 西北地区2002—2005年163站与31站各月500 hPa动力延伸预报方法预报评分PS差值 (单位:%)

Fig. 3 The difference score skill (PS) of interpretation precipitation between 163 stations and 31 stations over northwest China by DERF 500 hPa geopotential height from 2002 to 2005 (unit:%)

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表 1 不同试验设计

Table 1 The experiments design

表 2 西北地区1991—2000年各月NCEP/NCAR 500 hPa高度场的实况降水回报PS评分 (单位:%)

Table 2 The score skill (PS, unit:%) of interpretation precipitation over northwest China by NCEP/NCAR 500 hPa geopotential height from 1991 to 2000 (unit:%)

表 3 西北地区2002—2005年各月500 hPa动力延伸预报方法预报PS评分 (单位:%)

Table 3 The score skill (PS) of interpretation precipitation over northwest China by dynamical extended range forecast (DERF) from 2002 to 2005 (unit:%)

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