Application of Dynamic Extended Forecast Products to Monthly Precipitation Forecast in Guangxi

He Hui; Jin Long; Qin Zhinian; Chen Jian

Vol.18, NO.5, 2007

Article Contents

Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2007 > 18(5): 727-731

He Hui, Jin Long, Qin Zhinian, et al. Application of dynamic extended forecast products to monthly precipitation forecast in Guangxi. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2007, 18(5): 727-731.

Citation:

He Hui, Jin Long, Qin Zhinian, et al. Application of dynamic extended forecast products to monthly precipitation forecast in Guangxi. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2007, 18(5): 727-731.

He Hui, Jin Long, Qin Zhinian, et al. Application of dynamic extended forecast products to monthly precipitation forecast in Guangxi. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2007, 18(5): 727-731.

Citation:

He Hui, Jin Long, Qin Zhinian, et al. Application of dynamic extended forecast products to monthly precipitation forecast in Guangxi. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2007, 18(5): 727-731.

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Application of Dynamic Extended Forecast Products to Monthly Precipitation Forecast in Guangxi

1.
Climate Center of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Nanning 530022
2.
Meteorological Disasters Reduction Institute of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Nanning 530022
3.
Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Regional Meteorological Observation, Nanning 530022

Received Date: 2006-04-18
Rev Recd Date: 2007-01-09
Publish Date: 2007-10-31

Abstract

Abstract

Based on the monthly mean 500 hPa geopotential height fields from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data during 1958 to 2005 and the products of dynamic extended forecast from China National Climate Center during 2003 to 2005, monthly precipitation in Guangxi is predicted.The eigenvectors with typical spatial distribution patterns for the predicting key areas and time coefficients reflecting their variation trends can be developed to by way of making empirical orthogonal function (EOF) with the 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies over every predicting key areas. The monthly precipitation in Guangxi is predicted by using analog deviation to find out historical samples similar to predictors in the prediction year. Prediction models are tested by independent samples and results show that the models with predictors from products of dynamic extended forecast are superior in prediction ability to those with predictors from higher correlation areas of former 500 hPa geopotential height.
- dynamic extended forecast;
- monthly precipitation prediction;
- analog deviation

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References(15)

Figures and Tables

图 1 广西1958—2004年7月降水量的第一时间系数y₁与500 hPa高度距平相关场

Fig. 1 Correlation coefficient field between the frist time cofficient of monthly precipitation in July from 1958 to 2004 of Guangxi and geopotential height amomaly at 500 hPa

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表 1 广西1958—2004年7月降水量的前5个特征值及各自的方差贡献

Table 1 The first 5 eigevalues and their variance contribution of monthly precipitation in July from 1958 to 2004 of Guangxi

表 2 y₁关键区前8个特征向量的方差贡献及对应时间系数与y₁的相关系数

Table 2 The first 8 eigenvectors variance contribution to key areas of y₁ and the correlation coefficients between their time coefficients and y₁

表 3 以同期实况为预报因子的2003—2005年广西4—9月各月降水趋势PS评分 (单位:%)

Table 3 The PS evaluation of precipitation forecast in Guangxi from April to September during 2003—2005 using simultaneous observation data as predictors (unit:%)

表 4 分别以动力延伸预报产品和前期实况为预报因子的2003—2005年广西4—9月各月降水趋势的PS评分 (单位:%)

Table 4 The PS evaluation of precipitation forecast in Guangxi from April to September during 2003—2005 using products of dynamic extended forecast and former observation data as predictors respectively (unit:%)

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