Ensemble Prediction Experiments of Tropical Cyclone Track

Wang Chenxi; Liang Xudong

Vol.18, NO.5, 2007

Article Contents

Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2007 > 18(5): 586-593

Wang Chenxi, Liang Xudong. Ensemble prediction experiments of tropical cyclone track. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2007, 18(5): 586-593.

Citation:

Wang Chenxi, Liang Xudong. Ensemble prediction experiments of tropical cyclone track. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2007, 18(5): 586-593.

Wang Chenxi, Liang Xudong. Ensemble prediction experiments of tropical cyclone track. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2007, 18(5): 586-593.

Citation:

Wang Chenxi, Liang Xudong. Ensemble prediction experiments of tropical cyclone track. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2007, 18(5): 586-593.

PDF( 1659 KB)

Ensemble Prediction Experiments of Tropical Cyclone Track

Shanghai Typhoon Institute, Laboratory of Typhoon Forecast Technique, CMA, Shanghai 200030

Received Date: 2006-07-25
Rev Recd Date: 2007-01-08
Publish Date: 2007-10-31

Abstract

Abstract

In order to find the ensemble prediction method that can be used to forecast the tracks of tropical cyclones in the Western North Pacific Ocean, 52 cases tropical cyclone track ensemble prediction experiments are made, the 52 cases are from the 8 tropical cyclones that made landfall at China in 2005.MM5 model is used as the experiment model. The model has a horizontal grid spacing of 45 km with 115×115 points and 23 vertical sigma layers. It is run for 72 h. The model domain center is same as the center of experiment tropical cyclone. There are 12 ensemble members. 12 members consist of 11 perturbation members and a control forecast. Two methods are used to create the perturbation members. One method is breeding of growing modes (BGM), in which two 12-h breeding cycles are carried out. The other method is model physics perturbation (MPP), in which members are created by choosing different physics parameterization schemes. The experiment results show that the ensemble mean of BGM is better than the control forecast and the ensemble mean of MPP is worse than the control forecast. For BGM, the ensemble mean for the tropical cyclones whose initial intensity is smaller than 32.6 m/s is more skillful than the ensemble mean for the tropical cyclones whose initial intensity is larger than 32.6 m/s. For MPP, the ensemble mean for the tropical cyclones whose initial intensity is larger than 32.6 m/s is better than the control forecast. According to the different results of BGM ensemble and MPP ensemble, a new method is used to create the perturbation members. In this new method, when the initial intensity of tropical cyclone is smaller than 32.6 m/s, BGM method is used to create the perturbation members, when the initial intensity of tropical cyclone is larger than 32.6 m/s, both BGM method and MPP method are used to create the perturbation members. The ensemble mean of this method is better than the ensemble mean of BGM or MPP. The spreads of BGM ensemble, MPP ensemble and the new method are all too small.
- ensemble prediction;
- tropical cyclone;
- track;
- breeding of growing modes

FullText(HTML)

References(15)

Figures and Tables

图 1 BGM方法(a)和MPP方法(b)预报的0509“麦莎”72 h路径

(起报时刻为8月5日08:00, 实心圆线为实况路径, 空心圆线为集合预报路径, 空心正方形线为控制试验预报路径, 其他直线为扰动成员预报路径, 时间间隔为6 h)

Fig. 1 The 72 h tracks of Maisa(0509)forecasted by the methods of BGM(a)and MPP(b)

(the initial time is 08:00 on August 5;line with solid circles:best track; line with empty circles:ensemble mean track; line with empty squares:control forecast; other lines:perturbation members; time interval:6 h)

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

图 2 BGM方法(a)和MPP方法(b)预报的0513“泰利” 72 h路径

(起报时刻8月28日20:00, 其他说明同图 1)

Fig. 2 The 72 h tracks of Talim(0513)forecasted by the methods of BGM(a)and MPP(b)

(the initial time is 20:00 on August 28, others as in Fig.1)

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

图 3 BGM方法(a)和MPP方法(b)预报的0515“卡努” 72 h路径

(起报时刻9月9日08:00, 其他说明同图 1)

Fig. 3 The 72 h tracks of Khanum(0515)forecasted by the methods of BGM(a)and MPP(b)

(the initial time is 08:00 on September 9;others as in Fig.1)

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

图 4 试验A、试验B和试验C的52次预报的平均技巧水平R

Fig. 4 The mean skill levels R from 52 forecasts of test A, test B and test C

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

图 5 不同方法预报的0505“海棠”72 h路径

(起报时刻7月15日20:00, 实心圆线为实况路径, 空心圆线为控制试验预报路径, 三角形线、空心正方形线和实心正方形线分别为试验A、试验B和试验C的集合预报路径, 时间间隔为6 h)

Fig. 5 The 72 h tracks of Haitang(0505)forecasted by different methods

(the initial time is 20:00 on July 15; line with solid circles:best track; line with empty circles:control forecast; line with triangles:ensemble mean track of test A; line with empty squares:ensemble mean track of test B; line with solid squares:ensemble mean track of test C; time interval:6 h)

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

图 6 不同方法预报的0509“麦莎” 72 h路径

(起报时刻8月5日20:00, 其他说明同图 5)

Fig. 6 The 72 h tracks of Maisa(0509)forecasted by different methods

(the initial time is 20:00 on August 5; others as in Fig.5)

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

表 1 试验热带气旋概况

Table 1 The information of the experiment tropical cyclones

表 2 试验B(MPP)12个集合成员的构成

Table 2 The formation of the 12 ensemble members of test B(MPP)

表 3 52次预报的平均技巧水平R、正技巧比率及Spread与Frms比值(D/r)

Table 3 The mean skill levels R, positive skill percentages and the ratio of Spread to Frms(D/r)from 52 forecasts

表 4 两类热带气旋的平均技巧水平R及Spread与Frms比值(D/r)

Table 4 The mean skill levels R and the ratio of Spread to Frms(D/r)of two kind tropical cyclones

References

[1]	Toth T, Kalnay E.Ensemble forecasting at NCEP and the breeding method.Mon Wea Rev, 1997, 125:3297-3319. doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<3297:EFANAT>2.0.CO;2
[2]	李泽椿, 陈德辉.国家气象中心集合数值预报业务系统的发展及应用.应用气象学报, 2002, 13(1):1-15. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20020101&flag=1
[3]	杜钧.集合预报的现状和前景.应用气象学报, 2002, 13(1):16-28. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20020102&flag=1
[4]	Stensrud D J, Brooks H E, Du J, et al.Using ensembles for short-range forecasting.Mon Wea Rev, 1999, 127:433-446. doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(1999)127<0433:UEFSRF>2.0.CO;2
[5]	王晨稀, 端义宏.短期集合预报技术在梅雨降水预报中的试验研究.应用气象学报, 2003, 14(1):69-78. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20030108&flag=1
[6]	Zhang Z, Krishnamurti T N.Ensemble forecasting of hurricane tracks.Bull Amer Meteor Soc, 1997, 78:2785-2795. doi: 10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<2785:EFOHT>2.0.CO;2
[7]	Cheung K K W, Chan J C L.Ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclone motion using a barotropic model.Part Ⅰ:Perturbations of the environment.Mon Wea Rev, 1999, 127:1229-1243. doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(1999)127<1229:EFOTCM>2.0.CO;2
[8]	Cheung K K W, Chan J C L.Ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclone motion using a barotropic model.Part Ⅱ:Perturbations of the vortex.Mon Wea Rev, 1999, 127:2617-2640. doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(1999)127<2617:EFOTCM>2.0.CO;2
[9]	Goerss J S.Tropical cyclone track forecasts using an ensemble of dynamical models.Mon Wea Rev, 2000, 128:1187-1193. doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(2000)128<1187:TCTFUA>2.0.CO;2
[10]	Kumar T S V, Krishnamurti T N, Michael Fiorino, et al.Multimodel superensemble forecasting of tropical cyclones in the Pacific.Mon Wea Rev, 2003, 131:574-583. doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<0574:MSFOTC>2.0.CO;2
[11]	周霞琼, 端义宏, 朱永禔.热带气旋路径集合预报方法研究Ⅰ-正压模式结果的初步分析.热带气象学报, 2003, 19(1):1-8. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-RDQX200301000.htm
[12]	周霞琼, 端义宏, 朱永禔.应用集合预报产品开展热带气旋路径概率预报试验.气象学报, 2002, 60(增刊):111-118.
[13]	周霞琼, 张秀珍, 端义宏, 等.滞后平均法(LAF)在热带气旋路径集合预报中的应用.气象科学, 2003, 23(4):410-417. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXKX200304003.htm
[14]	袁金南, 万齐林, 黄燕燕, 等.南海热带气旋路径集合预报试验.热带气象学报, 2006, 22(2):105-112. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-RDQX200602000.htm
[15]	黄燕燕, 袁金南, 万齐林, 等.基于BDA扰动法的台风路径集合预报试验研究.热带气象学报, 2006, 22(1):49-54. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-RDQX200601006.htm