Vulnerability Analysis, Evaluation and Vulnerability Zoning of Lightning Disaster in Beijing

Based on the lightning disasters, thunderstorm days, economic and population data of eighteen counties in Beijing during 1995—2005, vulnerability analysis, evaluation and vulnerability zoning of lightning disaster are made. The analysis on spatial distribution of annual mean thunderstorm days in Beijing shows that there are more thunderstorms in the north than those in the south, and more thunderstorms in the west than those in the east. The thunderstorm activities in Miyun district are the most, whose annual thunderstorm are more than thirty-five days. The least thunderstorm activities exit in Tongzhou district, whose thunderstorm days are less than twenty-five.The study on spatial distribution of lightning disaster frequency indicates that more lightning disasters occur in the city zone and near the suburb than in the remote suburb.There are more dwellers in the city zone and near the suburb than in the remote suburb, and regarding GDP (gross domestic product) the former is more than the latter. It suggests that the thunderstorm activity is not the only cause for lightning disaster in Beijing. The lightning disaster might also relate with the population density and the economy in the disaster area.The vulnerability of lightning disaster might include two factors at least :the criticality of the disaster and the frangibility of the disaster area. Therefore, four indices are selected to evaluate the vulnerability of lightning disaster in Beijing. They are annual mean thunderstorm days (M), lightning disaster frequency (P), economic vulnerability module (D) and vital vulnerability module (L).M is used as a measurement of nature thunderstorm activity in Beijing. P is historical lightning disaster frequency.D and L are used to scale the economic and population characters of disaster areas respectively. Firstly, the four indices are classified into four degrees with a given value as follows:the extreme high degree is 1.0, the high degree is 0.8, the intermediate degree is 0.5, and the low degree is 0.2. Secondly, the comprehensive vulnerability evaluation index of lightning disaster is obtained by adding the degree values of the four indices. Then the comprehensive vulnerability evaluation index for the eighteen counties is also graded as four degrees, which are defined as the maximal damageable area, the high damageable area, the medium damageable area and the low damageable area. Finally, vulnerability zoning of the lightning disaster is obtained based on the vulnerability degree values of the eighteen counties in Beijing. The result shows that the city zone and Fengtai district belong to the maximal damageable area. Haidian district, Chaoyang district, Changping district and Shijinshan district belong to the high damageable area. Yanqing district, Daxing district, Mentougou district and Pinggu district belong to the low damageable area.The rest districts belong to the medium damageable area. Scientific basis might be provided for the planning of regional prevention and reduction of lightning disaster in Beijing.