Gao Ge, Chen Deliang, Xu Ying. Impact of climate change on runoff in the Huaihe River Basins. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2008, 19(6): 741-748.
Citation: Gao Ge, Chen Deliang, Xu Ying. Impact of climate change on runoff in the Huaihe River Basins. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2008, 19(6): 741-748.

Impact of Climate Change on Runoff in the Huaihe River Basins

  • Received Date: 2008-02-18
  • Rev Recd Date: 2008-05-28
  • Publish Date: 2008-12-31
  • The assessment about future climate change on runoff of the Huaihe River Basins in China is focused. The Xin'anjiang monthly distributed hydrological model is used to simulate the past and future runoffs. The model is run with observed monthly precipitation and air temperature during 1961—2000 and the simulated runoff is verified with the corresponding hydrological observations.The verifications show that annual and monthly runoff are simulated well and the Nash efficiency coefficients range from 60% to 80% for the monthly simulations but above 80% for annual runoff at major hydrological stations such as Wangjiaba, Lutaizi and Bengbu.For runoff average in many years, the simulation is better.The correlation coefficient between simulations and observations reaches 0.99 and the mean absolute relative error is about 10%.The verified model is then forced with future climate scenarios based on three emission ones (B1, A2 and A1B) during 2011—2040 period from four coupled atmospheric and oceanic general circulation models to simulate future changes in the runoff.In the simulated future, the climate of Huaihe River Basins will be warmer and more humid compared with the climate of the base period of 1961—1990.Future annual runoff in the periods would have decreasing trends, which poses a challenge to the sustainable development of the Huaihe River Basins and water management of the East Route in the South-north Division Project.Monthly runoff would decrease in January and from July to December with high certainty and to increase during April to June with high uncertainty in most area of the Huaihe River Basin.During February and March, the monthly runoff would increase in the north of the Basin and to decrease in the south area to the stem of the Huaihe River as well as the Hongze Lake and the plain area of lower reaches of the Huaihe River.
  • Fig. 1  The study area and locations of the meteorological and hydrological stations over the Huaihe River Basins

    Fig. 2  Monthly stream flow simulations in comparison to observations in Bengbu during 1961-1987

    Fig. 3  Projections of annual runoff to change of precipitation and temperature under different climate scenarios during 2011-2040 in the Huaihe River Basins

    Fig. 4  Mean changs of monthly precipitation and monthly mean temperature from 2011 to 2040 averaged from the results of UNKM, MRI and MPI compared to the baseline 1961-1990 in the Huaihe River Basins

    Fig. 5  Possible relative variation of monthly runoff during 2011-2040 in the Huaihe River Basins (baseline is 1961-1990)

    Table  1  Results chosen from 4 CGCMs under three emission scenarios of SRES

    Table  2  Possible vary range of annual runoff and ratio of increasing and decreasing trend to 11 total tests during 2011-2040 in the Huaihe River Basins

    Table  3  Possible major trend analysis of monthly runoff during 2011-2040 in the Huaihe River Basins based on 11 tests with models and scenarios (unit:%)

  • [1]
    黄荣辉, 蔡榕硕, 陈际龙, 等.我国旱涝气候灾害的年代际变化及其与东亚气候系统变化的关系.大气科学, 2006, 30(5):730-743 http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK200605001.htm
    [2]
    陈峪, 高歌, 任国玉, 等.中国十大流域近40多年降水量时空变化特征.自然资源学报, 2005, 20(5):637-643 http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZRZX200505001.htm
    [3]
    任国玉.气候变化与水资源.北京:气象出版社, 2007:1-313
    [4]
    张建云, 王国庆.气候变化对水文水资源影响研究.北京:科学出版社, 2007.
    [5]
    张建云.气候异常对水资源影响评估分析模型∥课题执行专家组课题办公室编.气候异常对国民经济影响评估业务系统的研究.北京:气象出版社, 2001:91-98
    [6]
    郝振纯, 苏凤阁.分布式月水文模型研究及其在淮河流域的应用.水科学进展, 2000, 11(增刊):36-43
    [7]
    汪美华, 谢强, 王红亚.未来气候变化对淮河流域径流深的影响.地理研究, 2003, 22(1):79-88 http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DLYJ200301009.htm
    [8]
    陈英, 刘新仁.淮河流域气候变化对水资源的影响.河海大学学报, 1996, 24(5):111-114 http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-HHDX605.021.htm
    [9]
    Guo S L, Wang J X, Xiong L H, et al. A macroseale and semi distributed monthly water balance model to predict climate change impacts in China. J Hydrol, 2002, 268:1-15 doi:  10.1016/S0022-1694(02)00075-6
    [10]
    [11]
    徐影, 赵宗慈, 高学杰, 等.南水北调东线工程流域未来气候变化预估.气候变化研究进展, 2005(4):176-178 http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QHBH200504011.htm
    [12]
    高歌.气候变化对水资源影响模式评估业务应用研究∥课题执行专家组课题办公室编.短期气候预测系统的总装与业务化试验研究.北京:气象出版社, 2004:207-214
    [13]
    Gellens D, Roulin E. Streamflow response of Belgian catchments to IPCC climate change scenarios. J Hydrol, 1998, 210: 242-258 doi:  10.1016/S0022-1694(98)00192-9
    [14]
    邓慧平, 吴正方, 唐来华.气候变化对水文、水资源影响研究综述.地理学报, 1996, 51(增刊):161-169 http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DLXB6S1.016.htm
    [15]
    陈德亮, 高歌.气候变化对长江流域汉江和赣江径流的影响.湖泊科学, 2003, 15(增刊):105-114. http://www.oalib.com/paper/4827817
  • 加载中
  • -->

Catalog

    Figures(5)  / Tables(3)

    Article views (4041) PDF downloads(1202) Cited by()
    • Received : 2008-02-18
    • Accepted : 2008-05-28
    • Published : 2008-12-31

    /

    DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint