Responses of the Electric Power Consumption to Climate Change in Guangzhou City

Duan Hailai; Qian Huaisui

Vol.20, NO.1, 2009

Article Contents

Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2009 > 20(1): 80-87

Duan Hailai, Qian Huaisui. Responses of the electric power consumption to climate change in Guangzhou city. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2009, 20(1): 80-87.

Citation:

Duan Hailai, Qian Huaisui. Responses of the electric power consumption to climate change in Guangzhou city. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2009, 20(1): 80-87.

Duan Hailai, Qian Huaisui. Responses of the electric power consumption to climate change in Guangzhou city. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2009, 20(1): 80-87.

Citation:

Duan Hailai, Qian Huaisui. Responses of the electric power consumption to climate change in Guangzhou city. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2009, 20(1): 80-87.

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Responses of the Electric Power Consumption to Climate Change in Guangzhou City

School of Geographical Sciences, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510006

Received Date: 2008-01-22
Rev Recd Date: 2008-07-21
Publish Date: 2009-02-28

Abstract

Abstract

The earth's climate is now experiencing significant change characterized by global warming. Profoundinfluence has been or will be brought by the global warming to the world. Exploring and assessing climatechange and its impacts are one of the hot issues in the fields of climate change.The electric power consumption of Guangzhou City which lies in the low latitude belt is sensitive to climate change. The trend ofthe electric power consumption changes with different paces and in different forms in Guangzhou City because of the global climate warming. In order to rationalize the allocation of the electric power resource andsave the electric power, it is necessary to study the responses of the electric power consumption to the climate warming. A research method is introduced which is used to study climate change impact on agriculture yield and energy sources, the dynamic assessment model for the influence intensity of the climaticchange in the electric power consumption and the model of cooling degree-day are established respectively.The responses of the electric power consumption to climate change in Guangzhou City are analyzed, andthe trend of the electric power consumption in Guangzhou City is forecasted. Firstly, the correlation between the electric power consumption of Guangzhou City and weather factors is studied, it is found thatthe main weather factors which affect the electric power consumption of Guangzhou City are the temperature, humidity and wind speed, but the temperature is the key factor. Secondly, the stability of climatechange is a very important factor for the electric power consumption besides weather factors. A dynamicassessment model including mean influence intensity and deviation are established. Considering all the climate factors and the stability of climate change, in the late fifty years, influence intensity of the climaticchange to electric power consumption has been increasing steadily, the probability of positive influence intensity has an ascending trend, rising at the speed of 10% every ten years, especially significant in recenttwenty years. Thirdly, through the analysis of cooling degree-day of Guangzhou City, it is found that themain cooling time is from May to October. The intensity of cooling degree-day is influenced by the increaseof the temperature greatly, reaching up to 46.6%/ ℃. At the same time, by analyzing the variability of thelength of cooling period, it shows that the length of cooling period has a gradual increasing trend in Guangzhou City. Therefore, the increase of cooling degree-day caused by temperature increasing has great effectson the electric power consumption.Finally, in the future scenery of climate warming, when the averagemaximum temperature increases 1 ℃ in summer, the unit industrial production value electric power consumption of the whole year will increase 2.02%. When the average temperature from May to October increases 1 ℃, the percentage of electric power consumed by residents will increase 1.25%. So in Guangzhou City, the pressure of the electric power consumption will be continuously increasing in the future because of the climate warming.
- climate change;
- the electric power consumption;
- Guangzhou City

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References(16)

Figures and Tables

图 1 广州市城市实际电力消费总量与趋势量的年际变化

Fig. 1 Inter-annual change of the electric power consumption and the trend quantity in Guangzhou City

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图 2 广州市城市电力消费量年际变化

Fig. 2 Inter-annual change of the electric power consumption in Guangzhou City

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图 3 广州市降温期长度变率10年滑动平均变化趋势

Fig. 3 Change trend of running mean variability of cooling time length over 10 years in Guangzhou City

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图 4 广州市居民生活用电量气温波动百分比及其5—10月的平均温度距平变化

Fig. 4 Variation of the percentage of electric power consumed by townsman and mean temperature anomaly from May to October

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表 1 气象电量与气象要素的相关系数

Table 1 The correlation coefficients between weather electricity quantity and weather factors

表 2 气候变化对广州市城市电力消费影响强度的动态评估模型及其正强度出现概率的动态变化

Table 2 The dynamic assessment model of influence intensity of the climatic change to electric power consumption and the change of probability of positive influence intensity in Guangzhou City

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