Zhao Shanshan, Gao Ge, Sun Xuguang, et al. Climatological characteristics of tropical cyclones in the northwestern Pacific. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2009, 20(5): 555-563.
Citation: Zhao Shanshan, Gao Ge, Sun Xuguang, et al. Climatological characteristics of tropical cyclones in the northwestern Pacific. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2009, 20(5): 555-563.

Climatological Characteristics of Tropical Cyclones in the Northwestern Pacific

  • Received Date: 2008-08-19
  • Rev Recd Date: 2009-07-21
  • Publish Date: 2009-10-31
  • Climatological characteristics of tropical cyclones in the Northwestern Pacific during 1951—2006 areinvestigated based on the tropical cyclone best track data from China Meteorological Administration.Tropical cyclones are classified into 6 different categories to study the long-term variation under the global warming background.From 1951 to 2006, nearly 33.9 tropical cyclones occur in the Northwestern Pacific every year.Tropical depressions contribute 18.8% and super typhoons contribute 17.8%.The total frequency of tropical cyclones in the Northwestern Pacific decreases since 1950s and the decreasing trend is1.8 times every 10 years.Frequency of tropical cyclones is highest in 1967 and lo west in 1998.The decrease trend of tropical cyclones frequency is mainly caused by tropical depression and super typhoon Ⅱ(maximum wind≥58 m · s -1, super typhoon Ⅱ for simple).The decrease trend of super typhoon Ⅱ ismost remarkable.Contributions of tropical depression and super typhoon Ⅱ frequencies decrease whilecontributions of other categories increase.Characteristics of frequency, intensity, the first and last date of super typhoon Ⅱ are different fromthose of other categories.About 56.3%of tropical cyclones in the Northwestern Pacific appear in summerseason, especially in August.The average monthly frequency is 7.9 in August and 0.3 in February.Withthe growing intensity of tropical cyclone, the maximum frequency postulate from August to October.Themaxim um frequency of super typhoon appears in autumn while those of other categories appear in August.Monthly frequencies of tropical depression and super typhoon Ⅱ take on decrease trends in autumn whilethose of other categories don' t show remarkable trends.The annual variations of super typhoon Ⅱ arenegative related with the annual variations of other categories except super typhoon Ⅰ.Yearly mean maxim um speed and minimum depression of tropical cyclones show a decrease trend.Yearly maximum speed oftropical cyclones decreases about 6.5 m · s -1 every 10 years, while yearly minimum depression has increased especially since 1987.Decrease trend of maximum speed is mainly caused by the decrease frequencyof super typhoon Ⅱ.The average first date of tropical cyclones is around 20 February and the average lastdate of tropical cyclones is around 15 December.The first date of tropical cyclones shows a slight delayingtrend.The first date of super typhoon Ⅱ have remarkable long-term delaying trend of 25 day s every 10y ears while the last date displays long-term advancing trend of 9 day s every 10 years.The last date of tropical storm has delaying trend while that of super typhoon Ⅰ has advancing trend.
  • Fig. 1  Time series and trend of cyclone in the Northwestern Pacific during 1951 —2006

    Fig. 2  Time series and trend of super typhoon in the Northwestern Pacific during 1951 —2006

    Fig. 3  Time series and trend of contributions of different cyclone to tropical cyclone in the Northwestern Pacific during 1951— 2006

    Fig. 4  Seasonal variability of different cyclone frequencies in the Northwestern Pacific during 1951 — 2006

    Fig. 5  Temporal variations of the mean and largest intensities of tropical cyclones during 1951—2006 (a) maximum speed, (b) minimum pressure

    Fig. 6  Variations of the first and last date of different tropical cyclone during 1951 — 2006 (dashed line denotes the first date and solid line denotes the last date)

    (a) tropical cyclone, (b) tropical depression, (c) tropical storm—super typhoonⅠ, (d) super typhoon Ⅱ

    Table  1  Long-time trends of monthly frequencies of tropical cyclones about different categories (unit : 1/10a)

    Table  2  Correlations among frequencies of tropical cyclones about different categories

  • [1]
    Webster P J, Holland G J, Curry J A, et al.Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment.Science, 2005, 309 : 1844 -1846. doi:  10.1126/science.1116448
    [2]
    Landsea C W, Nicholls N, Gray W M, et al.Downward trends in the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes during the past five decades.Geophys Res Lett, 1996, 23 : 1697-1700. doi:  10.1029/96GL01029
    [3]
    Goldenberg S B, Landsea C M, Mestas-nunez A M, et al.The recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity : Causes and implications.Science, 2001, 293 : 474 -479. doi:  10.1126/science.1060040
    [4]
    Elsner J B, Kocher B.Global tropical activity :A link to the North Atlantic oscillation.Geophys Res Lett, 2000, 27 : 129 -232. doi:  10.1029/1999GL010893
    [5]
    Trenberth K.Uncertainty in hurricanes and global warming.Science, 2005, 208 :1753 -1754. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/7781029_CLIMATE_Uncertainty_in_Hurricanes_and_Global_Warming
    [6]
    Emanuel K A.Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years.Nature, 2005, 436 :686 -688. doi:  10.1038/nature03906
    [7]
    Johnny C, Chan L.Comment on "Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment".Science, 2006, 311 :1713b. doi:  10.1126/science.1121522
    [8]
    Webster P J, Curry J A, Liu J, et al.Reponse to comment on " Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment".Science, 2006, 311 : 1713c. doi:  10.1126/science.1121564
    [9]
    Neumann C J.Global Overview.Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting.World Meteorological Organization, Reop 1993, TCP -31, WMO / TD -560, Geneva, Switzerland, 1.1 -1.42.
    [10]
    曹祥村, 袁群哲, 杨继鉝, 等.2005年登陆我国热带气旋特征.应用气象学报, 2007, 18(3) : 412 -416. http://qk.cams.cma.gov.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20070367&flag=1
    [11]
    徐良炎, 高歌.50年台风变化特征及灾害年景评估.气象, 2005, 31(3) : 41-44. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXX200503009.htm
    [12]
    陈联寿, 丁一汇.西北太平洋台风概论.北京:科学出版社, 1979 : 22-26.
    [13]
    曹楚, 彭加毅, 余锦华.全球气候变暖背景下登陆我国台风特征的分析.南京气象学院学报, 2006, 29(4) :455 -461. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-NJQX200604003.htm
    [14]
    陈敏, 郑永光, 陶祖钰.近50年 (1949—1996) 西北太平洋热带气旋气候特征的再分析.热带气象学报, 1999, 15(1) : 10 -16. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-RDQX901.001.htm
    [15]
    陈兴芳, 晁淑懿.台风活动的气候突变.热带气象学报, 1997, 12(2) : 97-104. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-RDQX702.000.htm
    [16]
    王小玲, 王咏梅, 任福民, 等.影响中国的台风频数年代际变化趋势:1951—2004年.气候变化研究进展, 2006, 5 (3) : 135 -138. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QHBH200603009.htm
    [17]
    王小玲, 任福民.1957—2004年影响我国的强热带气旋频数和强度变化.气候变化研究进展, 2007, 6(3) :345 -349. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QHBH200706008.htm
    [18]
    Wu L, Wang B, Geng S.Growing typhoon influence on east Asia.Geophys Res Lett, 2005, 32, Li8703, doi: 10.1029/2005GL022937.
    [19]
    Kamahori H, Yamazaki N, Mannoji N, et al.Variability in intense tropical cyclone days in the western North Pacific. SOLA, 2006, 2:104-107, doi:10.215/ sola.2006-207.
    [20]
    Wang Xiaoling, Wu Liguang, Ren Fumin, et al. Influence of tropical cyclones on China during 1965—2004. Adv Atmos Sci, 2008, 25(3) : 417-426. doi:  10.1007/s00376-008-0417-6
    [21]
    CMA-STI热带气旋最佳路径数据集.http:∥www.typhoon.gov.cn.
    [22]
    国家标准化管理委员会.热带气旋等级 (GB/T 19201-2006).北京:中国标准出版社, 2006.
  • 加载中
  • -->

Catalog

    Figures(6)  / Tables(2)

    Article views (3814) PDF downloads(1808) Cited by()
    • Received : 2008-08-19
    • Accepted : 2009-07-21
    • Published : 2009-10-31

    /

    DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint