Asymmetric Trends of Daily Maximum and Minimum Temperature in Global Warming and Its Effects on Agriculture Ecosystems

Tan Kaiyan; Fang Shibo; Ren Sanxue; Zhang Xinshi

Vol.20, NO.5, 2009

Article Contents

Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2009 > 20(5): 634-641

Tan Kaiyan, Fang Shibo, Ren Sanxue, et al. Asymmetric trends of daily maximum and minimum temperature in global warming and its effects on agriculture ecosystems. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2009, 20(5): 634-641.

Citation:

Tan Kaiyan, Fang Shibo, Ren Sanxue, et al. Asymmetric trends of daily maximum and minimum temperature in global warming and its effects on agriculture ecosystems. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2009, 20(5): 634-641.

Citation:

PDF( 422 KB)

Asymmetric Trends of Daily Maximum and Minimum Temperature in Global Warming and Its Effects on Agriculture Ecosystems

1.
Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081
2.
Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100093

Received Date: 2008-11-10
Rev Recd Date: 2009-07-23
Publish Date: 2009-10-31

Abstract

Abstract

Some recent major research findings on trends of daily maximum and minim um temperature in global warming and warming experiments in agro-ecosystems are summarized briefly.Investigating the daily mean maximum and minimum temperatures of the Northern Hemisphere landmass, it's found that the rising rate of the minim um temperature is 2—3 times as big as that of the maximum temperature during the period of 1950—1993. It indicates that the daily mean maximum and minim um temperatures rising are asymmetry. The largest increase in temperature occurs in wintertime and springtime, implying that temperature increase is asymmetry in seasons too. Similar trends are observed for the past 52 years (1951—2002) in China.The agro-ecosystems response to temperature increasing in asymmetric trends is introduced in detail. As for the rise of the minimum temperature, almost all researches confirm that the growing season has been extended and the spring crops phenological phases have become earlier than before. The minimum temperature and the maximum temperature have different effects on different crops' phenological calendar and on one crop's different phenological phases. Most of the existing reports about agro-ecosystems response to temperature increase concentrate on crops model simulation and statistic description. And most of the results show that increasing temperature has made the growth period shorter and the ripe date earlier. As for these causes, some studies imply that it could cut down the crops yields.But others consider that increasing minimum temperature will lessen the danger of crop chill injury, and will improve the crops yields. Some studies also suggest that the temperature rising, especially the daily maximum temperature rising has nonlinear effects on corn yields. Thus the roles of minimum temperature and maximum temperature to crops grow and yields are still uncertain. The temperature also plays an important role in controlling the soil CO₂ releases. Most of experiments about temperature rising are conducted in OTC (open-top chamber) or greenhouse, where the maximum temperature is increased much more than the minimum temperature (the minimum temperature are almost unchanged comparing with blank). Therefore, all the OTC and greenhouse experiments are mainly set to simulate the effects of the maximum temperature rising on crops. A recently reported method designed to simulate minimum temperature rising is also reviewed. Minimum temperature rising experiments have been carried out on grassland and forest ecosystems, but the experiments in agro-ecosystems are seldom reported.
- asymmetric trends of daily maximum and minimum temperature;
- global climate warming;
- agro-ecosystems;
- warming experiment

FullText(HTML)

References(71)

Figures and Tables

表 1 北半球近50年平均最高、最低气温变化速率 (单位: ℃/ 100 a)

Table 1 Changing trends of maximum and minimum temperature variation in the Northern Hemisphere during the past 50 years (unit : ℃/100 a)

表 2 中国近50年和季节平均最高、最低气温变化幅度速率 (单位: ℃/ 10 a)

Table 2 Changing trends of maximum and minimum temperature variation in China during the past 50 years (unit : ℃/ 10 a)

References

[1]	IPCC Fourth Assessment Report:Climate Change 2007 (AR4). http:∥www. ipcc. ch/publications_and_data/publications _and_data_reports. htm.
[2]	IPCC Third Assessment Report :Climate Change 2001 (TAR). http:∥www. ipcc. ch/publications_and_data/publications_and _data reports.htm.
[3]	Karl T R, Jones P D, Knight R W, et al.A new perspective on recent global warming :A symmetric trends of daily maximum and minim um temperature.Bull Amer Meteor Soc, 1993, 74(6): 1007-1023. doi: 10.1175/1520-0477(1993)074<1007:ANPORG>2.0.CO;2
[4]	Easterling D R, Peterson T C, Karl T R, et al. Maximum and minimum temperature trends for the globe.Science, 1997, 277(18):364-367. http://science.sciencemag.org/content/277/5324/364
[5]	Price C, Michaelides S, Pashiardis S, et al. Long term changes in diurnal temperature range in Cyprus.Atmos Res, 1999, 51 (2):85-98. doi: 10.1016/S0169-8095(99)00022-8
[6]	Ventura F, Rossi Pisa P, Ardizzoni E.Temperature and precipitation trends in Bologna (Italy) from 1952 to 1999.Atmos Res, 2002, 61(3):203-214. doi: 10.1016/S0169-8095(01)00135-1
[7]	Hasenauer H, Nemani R R, Schadauer K, et al. Forest growth response to changing climate between 1961 and 1990 in Austria.Forest Ecology and Management, 1999, 122(3) : 209-219. doi: 10.1016/S0378-1127(99)00010-9
[8]	Hess T M.Trends in reference evapo-transpiration in the North East Arid Zone of Nigeria, 1961 —91.Journal of Arid Environments, 1998, 38(1) :99-115. doi: 10.1006/jare.1997.0327
[9]	Boyles R P, Raman S. Analysis of climate trends in North Carolina (1949 —1998).Environment International, 2003, 29 : 263-275. doi: 10.1016/S0160-4120(02)00185-X
[10]	翟盘茂, 任福民.中国近四十年最高最低气温变化.气象学报, 1997, 55(4): 418-429 http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXB704.003.htm
[11]	Zhai P M, Pan X H.Trends in tem perature extremes du rin g 1951 — 1999 in China. GeophysRes Lett, 2003, 30(17): 1913-1916.
[12]	马晓波.中国西北地区最高、最低气温的非对称变化.气象学报, 1999, 57(5): 613-620. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXB199905010.htm
[13]	王菱, 谢贤群, 苏文, 等.中国北方地区50年来最高和最低气温的变化及其影响.自然资源学报, 2004, 19(3): 337-343. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZRZX200403009.htm
[14]	王石立, 庄立伟, 王馥棠.近20年气候变暖对东北农业生产水热条件影响的研究.应用气象学报, 2003, 14(2): 152-163.
[15]	任国玉, 初子莹, 周雅清, 等.中国气温变化研究最新进展.气候与环境研究, 2005, 10(4): 701-716. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QHYH200504001.htm
[16]	唐国利, 丁一汇.由最高最低气温求算的平均气温对我国年平均气温序列的影响.应用气象学报, 2007, 18(2) : 187-192. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20070232&flag=1
[17]	气候变化国家评估报告编写委员会.气候变化国家评估报告.北京:科学出版社, 2007
[18]	Menzel A, Fabian P. Grow ing season extended in Eu rope.Nature, 1999, 397 : 659. doi: 10.1038/17709
[19]	Moonen A C, Ercoli L, Mariotti M, et al. Climate change in Italy indicated by agrometeorological indices over 122 years. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2002, 111(1): 13-27. doi: 10.1016/S0168-1923(02)00012-6
[20]	Hu Q, Weiss A, Feng S, et al.Earlier winter wheat heading dates and warmer spring in the US Great Plains.Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2005, 135 : 284-290. doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2006.01.001
[21]	Schwartz M D, Chen X Q.Examining the onset of spring in China.Climate Research, 2002, 21 :157-164. doi: 10.3354/cr021157
[22]	叶殿秀, 张勇.1961-2007年我国霜冻变化特征.应用气象学报, 2008, 19(6): 661-665. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20080604&flag=1
[23]	Heide O M, Prestrud A K. Low temperature, but not photoperiod, controls growth cessation and dormancy induction an d release in apple and pear.Tree Physiology, 2005, 25(1): 109-114. doi: 10.1093/treephys/25.1.109
[24]	Lu P L, Yu Q, Liu J D, et al.Effects of changes in spring temperature on flowering dates of woody plants across China. Botanical Studies, 2006, 47 :153-161. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/279554765_Effects_of_changes_in_spring_temperature_on_flowering_dates_of_woody_plants_across_China
[25]	王润元, 张强, 王耀琳, 等.西北干旱区玉米对气候变暖的响应.植物学报, 2004, 46(12) : 1387-1392. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SXLX201310022.htm
[26]	Sadras V O, Monzon J P. Modelled wheat phenology captures rising temperature trends :Shortened time to flowering an d maturity in Australia and Argentina.Field Crops Research, 2006, 99(2-3): 136-146 doi: 10.1016/j.fcr.2006.04.003
[27]	Lobell D B. Changes in diurnal temperature range and national cereal yields.Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2007, 145 : 229-238. doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2007.05.002
[28]	Lobell D B, Ortiz-Monasterio J I, Asner G P, et al. Analysis of wheat yield and climatic trends in Mexico. Field Crops Research, 2005, 94(2-3): 250-256. doi: 10.1016/j.fcr.2005.01.007
[29]	Lobell D B, Field C B.Global scale climate-crop yield relations hips and the impacts of recent warming.Environ Res Lett, 2007, doi: 10.1088/ 1748-9326/ 2/ 1/ 014002.
[30]	Lobell D B, Ortiz-Monasterio J I. Impacts of day versus night temperatures on spring wheat yields :A comparison of empirical and ceres model predictions in three locations.Agron J, 2007, 99 :469-477. doi: 10.2134/agronj2006.0209
[31]	Wilkens P, Singh U.A Code-level Analysis for Temperature Effects in the C ERES Models ∥White J.Modeling Temperature Response in Wheat and Maize.CIMMYT, ElBatan, Mexico, 2001 : 1-7.
[32]	Nicholls N. Increased Australian wheat yield due to recent climate trends.Nature, 1997, 387 : 484-485. doi: 10.1038/387484a0
[33]	Todisco F, Vergni L. Climatic changes in Central Italy and their potential effects on corn water consumption.Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2008, 148: 1-11. doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2007.08.014
[34]	Dhakhwa G B, Campbell C L, LeDuc S K, et al. Maize growth : Assessing the effects of global warming and CO₂ fertilization with crop models.Agriculturaland Forest Meteorology, 1997, 87(4): 253-272. doi: 10.1016/S0168-1923(97)00030-0
[35]	Peng S B, Jianliang H, Sheehy J E, et al.Rice yields decline with higher night temperature from global warming.PNAS, 2004, 101 : 9971-9975. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0403720101
[36]	Schlenker W, Roberts M J.Nonlinear effects of weather on corn yields. Rev Agric Econ, 2006, 28 : 391-398. doi: 10.1111/raec.2006.28.issue-3
[37]	Bannayan M, Hoogenboom G, Crout N M J.Photothermal impact on maize performance :A simulation approach.Ecological Modelling, 2004, 180 : 277-290. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2004.04.022
[38]	Lal M, Singh K K, Srinivasan G, et al.Growth an d yield responses of soybean in Madhya Pradesh, India to climate variability and change. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 1999, 93 (1) : 53-70. doi: 10.1016/S0168-1923(98)00105-1
[39]	Lal M, Singh K K, Rathore L S, et al.Vulnerability of rice and wheat yields in NW India to future changes in climate. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 1998, 89(2):101-114. doi: 10.1016/S0168-1923(97)00064-6
[40]	Wang H, Greenberg S E.Reconstructing the response of C3 and C4 plants to decadal-scale climate change during the late Pleistocene in southern Illinois using isotopic analyses of calcified rootlets. Quaternary Research, 2007, 67 : 136-142. doi: 10.1016/j.yqres.2006.10.001
[41]	Alward R D, Detling J K, Milchunas D G.Grassland vegetation changes and nocturnal global warming.Science, 1999, 283 : 229-231. doi: 10.1126/science.283.5399.229
[42]	Jose J S, Montes R, Nikonova N. Seasonal patterns of carbon dioxide, water vapour and energy fluxes in pineapple.Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2007, 147 : 16-34. doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2007.06.003
[43]	He Y, Dong W J, Guo X Y. Terrestrial growth in China and its relation ship with climate based on the M ODIS data.Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2007, 27(12):5086-5092. doi: 10.1016/S1872-2032(08)60015-3
[44]	Li Y L, Otieno D, Owen K, et al.Temporal variability in s oil CO₂ emission in an orchard forest ecosystem.Pedosphere, 2008, 18(3): 273-283. doi: 10.1016/S1002-0160(08)60017-X
[45]	Iqbal J, Hu G R, Du L J, et al.Differences in soil CO₂ flux between different land use types in mid-subtropical China. Soil Biology < Biochemistry, 2008, 40(9): 2324-2333. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S003807170800165X
[46]	Shi P L, Zhang X Z, Zhong Z M, et al.Diurnal and seasonal variability of s oil CO₂ efflux in acropland ecosystem on the Tibetan Plateau. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2006, 137 : 220-23. doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2006.02.008
[47]	Shen K P, Harte J.Ecosystem Climate Manipulations ∥Sala O E, Jackson R B, Mooney H A, et al.Methodsin Ecosystem Science.New York :Springer-Verlag Press, 353-270-369, 2000.
[48]	Hollister R D, Webber P J.Biotic validation of small opentop chambers in a tundra ecosystem. Global Change Biology, 2000, 6 : 835-842. doi: 10.1046/j.1365-2486.2000.00363.x
[49]	Klein J A, Harte J, Zhao X Q. Dynamic and complex microclimate responses to warming and grazing manipulations. Global Change Biology, 2005, 11 : 1440-1451. doi: 10.1111/gcb.2005.11.issue-9
[50]	许庆民, 赵建中, 刘伟.模拟增温对短穗兔耳草生长特征的影响.安徽农业科学, 2007, 35(36): 11826-11828. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-AHNY200736051.htm
[51]	Van Oijen M, Schapendonk A H C M, Jansen M J H, et al.Do open-top chambers overestimate the effects of rising CO₂ on plants? An analysis using spring wheat. Global Change Biology, 1999, 5 : 411-421. doi: 10.1046/j.1365-2486.1999.00233.x
[52]	Wan S Q, Richard J N, Joanne L.Responses of soil respiration to elevated CO₂, air warming, and changin g soil water availability in a model old-field grassland. Global Change Biology, 2007, 13 : 2411-2424. doi: 10.1111/gcb.2007.13.issue-11
[53]	Kudernatscha T, Fischera A, Bernhardt-Rämermann M.Shortterm effects of temperature enhancement on growth and reproduction of alpine grassland species.Basic and Applied Ecology, 2007, doi: 10.1016/ j. baae. 2007. 02. 005.
[54]	王春乙, 白月明, 郑昌玲. CO₂和O₃浓度倍增对作物影响的研究进展.气象学报, 2004, 62(5): 875-881. http://www.docin.com/p-508494451.html
[55]	Wolf J, Van Oijen M, Kempenaar C. Analysis of the experimental variability in wheat responses to elevated CO₂ and temperature.Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 2002, 93 : 227-247. doi: 10.1016/S0167-8809(01)00353-X
[56]	Suzuki S, Kudo G.Short-term effects of simulated environmental change on phenology, leaf traits, and shoot growth of alpine plants on a temperate mountain, northern Japan.Global Change Biology, 1997, 3(Suppl.1): 108-115. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.1997.gcb146.x/abstract
[57]	Werkman B R, Callaghan T V, Welker J M. Responses of bracken to increased temperature and nitrogen availability.Global Change Biology, 1996, 2 : 59-66. doi: 10.1111/gcb.1996.2.issue-1
[58]	Marion G M, Henry G H R, Freckman D W, et al. Open-top designs for manipulating field temperature in high-latitude ecosystems. Global Change Biology, 1997, 3(Suppl.1): 20-32. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.1997.gcb136.x/full
[59]	Stenstrom M, Gugerli F, Henry G H R. Response of Saif raga oppositifolia L to simulated climate change at three contrasting latitudes.Global Change Biology, 1997, 3(Suppl.1): 44-54.
[60]	S haver G R, Canadell J, Chapin Ⅲ F S, et al.Global warming and terrestrial ecosystems :A conceptual framework for analysis. BioScience, 2000, 50 : 871-882. doi: 10.1641/0006-3568(2000)050[0871:GWATEA]2.0.CO;2
[61]	牛书丽, 韩兴国, 马克平, 等.全球变暖与陆地生态系统研究中的野外增温装置.植物生态学报, 2007, 31(2): 262-271. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZWSB200702008.htm
[62]	Rosenzweig C, Tubiello F N. Effects of changes in minimum and maximum temperature on wheat yields in the central US : A simulation study.A gricultural and Forest Meteorology, 1996, 80(2-4) : 215-230. doi: 10.1016/0168-1923(95)02299-6
[63]	刘颖杰, 林而达.气候变暖对中国不同地区农业的影响.气候变化研究进展, 2007, 3(4): 229-233. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QHBH200704011.htm
[64]	蔺涛, 谢云, 刘刚, 等.黑龙江省气候变化对粮食生产的影响.自然资源学报, 2008, 23(2): 307-318. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZRZX200802015.htm
[65]	廉毅, 高枞亭, 沈柏竹, 等.吉林省气候变化及其对粮食生产的影响.气候变化研究进展, 2007, 3(1): 46-49. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QHBH200701010.htm
[66]	王艳秋, 高煜中, 潘华盛, 等.气候变暖对黑龙江省主要农作物的影响.气候变化研究进展, 2007, 3(6): 373-378. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QHBH200706016.htm
[67]	袁婧薇, 倪健.中国气候变化的植物信号和生态证据.干旱区地理, 2007, 30(4): 465-473. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GHDL200704001.htm
[68]	张建平, 赵艳霞, 王春乙, 等.气候变化对我国华北地区冬小麦发育和产量的影响.应用生态学报, 2006, 17 (7): 1179-1184. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YYSB200607005.htm
[69]	张宇, 王石立, 王馥棠.气候变化对我国小麦发育及产量可能影响的模拟研究.应用气象学报, 2000, 11(3): 264-270. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20000341&flag=1
[70]	高素华, 郭建平, 赵四强, 等. "高温"对我国小麦生长发育及产量的影响.大气科学, 1996, 20(5): 599-605. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK605.010.htm
[71]	陈希勇, 赵爱菊, 李亚军, 等.高温胁迫对小麦籽粒品质的影响.河北农业科学, 2007, 11(1): 1-4. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-HBKO200701003.htm