Characteristic Analysis of Ice Accumulation on Transmission Lines and Simulation Based on ANN Model over China

Yin Shuiqing; Zhao Shanshan; Wang Zunya; Zhang Qiang; Tang Weian

Vol.20, NO.6, 2009

Article Contents

Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2009 > 20(6): 722-728

Yin Shuiqing, Zhao Shanshan, Wang Zunya, et al. Characteristic analysis of ice accumulation on transmission lines and simulation based on ANN model over China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2009, 20(6): 722-728.

Citation:

Yin Shuiqing, Zhao Shanshan, Wang Zunya, et al. Characteristic analysis of ice accumulation on transmission lines and simulation based on ANN model over China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2009, 20(6): 722-728.

Citation:

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Characteristic Analysis of Ice Accumulation on Transmission Lines and Simulation Based on ANN Model over China

1.
National Climate Center, Beijing 100081
2.
Anhui Climate Center, Anhui Meteorological Bureau, Hefei 230031

Received Date: 2009-02-10
Rev Recd Date: 2016-01-13
Publish Date: 2009-12-31

Abstract

Abstract

An extreme frozen ice and snow disaster brought severe losses in early 2008 to China. A large number of overhead transmission lines are destroyed seriously during this event. It is critical to investig ate the characteristics of ice accumulation and develop appropriate models to estimate transmission line icing in China.Using the observation data of ice accumulation on transmission lines and meteorological data collected from over 600 meteorological stations of China, the characteristics of ice accumulation are analyzed and an ANN model for predicting ice accumulation depth grades is developed. The results mainly include four aspects. First, the area with ice accumulation extremes over 10 mm is mainly located in the southeastern part of Northeastern China, the northeastern part of Inner Mongolia, the middle part of North China, the southern part of Gansu Province and a east-west zone to the south of the Yangtze River. Second, there are 50 stations (1/6 of totalice accumulation observation stations) expe riencing extreme ice accumulation in 2008. Third, trends for yearly maximum of ice accumulation depth and ice accumulation days increase for Huangshan station in Anhui Province and Lushan station in Jiangx iProvince, while decrease for Emeishan station in Sichuan Province and Xifengzhen station in Gansu Province. Finally, an ANN model based on three layer BP network is developed to predict ice accumulation thickness grades. It is used to predict ice accumulation thickness grades in recent 10 years, and the accuracy rate is 81.3%comparing with obser-vation. For 7.5% of the samples, prediction result is one grade higher than observation and for 11.3% it is one to four grades lower. The ANN model underestimates extreme high values seriously, which suggests it needs improving.Besides, the data from weather observation stations might be different from the field surroundings. Nevertheless, in the areas with high risks of freezing hazard, the model can provide information for electricity suppliers to optimize the design of reliable equipments and to take preventive actions avoiding serious damage by ice-snow frozen weather.
- ice-snow frozen weather;
- glaze;
- rime;
- ice accumulation on transmission lines;
- ANN model

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References(28)

Figures and Tables

图 1 电线结冰厚度历史极值空间分布

Fig. 1 The spatial distribution of ice accumulation extremes for each station

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图 2 电线结冰厚度历史极值所在年代空间分布

Fig. 2 The spatial distribution of decades when ice accumulations extremes appear

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图 3 结冰厚度与厚度观测前 1 天各气象要素关系

(a)日最低气温, (b)日相对湿度, (c)日平均风速, ( d)日降水量

Fig. 3 Relationship between ice accumulation depths with meteorological parameters cont rolling ice accretion

(a)daily minimumtemperature, (b)daily relative humidity, (c)daily wind speed, (d)daily rainfall amount

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图 4 不同结冰厚度等级下气象要素组合的关系

(黄点、绿点、蓝点和红点分别表示结冰厚度为0mm, 0～20 mm, 20～40 mm和40mm 以上的样本) (a)最低气温与相对湿度, (b)最低气温与风速, (c)最低气温与降水量, (d)相对湿度与风速

Fig. 4 Relationship between pairs of meteorological parameters controlling ice accretion

(yellow, green, blue and red dots represent samples with ice accretion depth of 0 mm, 0-20 mm, 20-40 mm and >40 mm, respectively) (a)daily minimum tempera ture vs daily relative humidity, (b)daily minimum temperature vs daily wind speed, (c)daily minimum tempera ture vs daily rainfall amount, (d)daily relative humidity vs daily wind speed

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表 1 全国电线结冰站点数据情况统计

Table 1 Statist ics about the stations with ice accretion observation over China

表 2 代表站点历年覆冰厚度极大值及覆冰日数长期变化趋势

Table 2 Trend for yearly maximal ice accumulation depth and ice accumulation days

表 3 冰冻厚度与厚度观测当天及前 1 ～ 3 天气象要素的偏相关系数

Table 3 Partial correlation coeff icients between ice accumulation depth and meteorological parameters controlling ice accretion for 4 days including the ice-accretion-depth-observed day and 1-3 days before that

表 4 ANN 建模评估---预报等级的误差

Table 4 Assessment of ANN model by comparing prediction grades with observation grades

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