Zhang Yongheng, Fan Guangzhou, Ma Qingyun, et al. The evaluation model of typhoon disaster influence on Zhejiang Province. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2009, 20(6): 772-776.
Citation: Zhang Yongheng, Fan Guangzhou, Ma Qingyun, et al. The evaluation model of typhoon disaster influence on Zhejiang Province. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2009, 20(6): 772-776.

The Evaluation Model of Typhoon Disaster Influence on Zhejiang Province

  • Received Date: 2008-11-06
  • Rev Recd Date: 2009-09-09
  • Publish Date: 2009-12-31
  • Based on the unceasing increase of economy and continual development of society, the loss from typhoon disaster is getting more fierce and fatal. So the scientific and objective evaluation model of typhoon disaster is very important for recovery from the disaster. Historical research shows that most evaluation methods centralize elements of natural disaster change, but ignore crucial factors about society and economy.Taking the social and economic factors into account, the Fuzzy Mathematics method is applied to analyze the disaster damage caused by 20 typhoons that have influenced on Zhejiang Province during the period from 2000 to 2006. Ten disaster impact factors are selected as model input and an index of every typhoon disaster can be obtained using the method. Meanwhile, the concept of disaster grade in Feng Lihua's work is used to translate the casualty and direct loss of every typhoon disaster into a normal index by means of numerical statistical analysis. Losses of typhoon disasters are divided into four grades as extreme great, heavy, and general by the two indexes. Comparison result shows that for 90% of the cases, the two indexes are accordant while the discrepancy for the rest 10% of cases is only one grade. So the model established can reasonably evaluate the losses caused by typhoon disaster of different density. The model is feasible in beforehand and fast evaluation of typhoon disasters based on the weather forecast and observation data as well as the economic data. It can offer directorial gist for emergency management, and support decision-making for disaster recovery.
  • Fig. 1  The variety of the disaster grade and evaluation index of every tropical cyclone influence on Zhejiang Province during 2000-2006

    Table  1  Weighting of various factors allocation

    Table  2  The classification of every disaster grade, loss and evaluation index

    Table  3  The comparison of disaster grade and evaluation index of every tropical cyclone influence on Zhejiang Province during 2000-2006

  • [1]
    吕振平, 姚月伟. 浙江省台风灾害及应急机制建设. 灾害学, 2006, 21(3): 69-71. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZHXU200603014.htm
    [2]
    薛根元, 俞善贤, 何风翩, 等.云娜台风灾害特点与浙江省台风灾害初步研究.自然灾害学报, 2006, 15(4): 39-47. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZRZH200604007.htm
    [3]
    刘庭杰, 施能, 顾骏强.浙江省台风灾害的统计分析.灾害学, 2002, 17(4): 64-71. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZHXU200204013.htm
    [4]
    李春梅, 罗晓玲, 刘锦銮.层次分析法在热带气旋灾害影响评估模式中的应用. 热带气象学报, 2006, 22(3): 223-228. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-RDQX200603002.htm
    [5]
    卢峰本, 黄滢, 许文龙. 影响防城港市的热带气旋灾害评估方法. 广西气象, 2005, 26(2): 14-15. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GXQX200502003.htm
    [6]
    樊琦, 梁必骐. 热带气旋灾害经济损失的模糊数学评测. 气象科学, 2000, 20(3): 360-366. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXKX200003015.htm
    [7]
    樊琦, 梁必骐. 热带气旋灾情的预测及评估. 地理学报, 2000, 55(增刊): 52-55. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DLXB2000S1009.htm
    [8]
    冯利华.灾害损失的定量计算.灾害学, 1993, 8(2): 17-19. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZHXU199302003.htm
    [9]
    中国气象局.热带气旋年鉴.北京:气象出版社, 2000-2006.
    [10]
    浙江统计局. 浙江统计年鉴. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2000-2006.
    [11]
    曹祥村, 袁群哲, 杨继鉝, 等. 2005年登陆我国热带气旋特征分析.应用气象学报, 2007, 18(3): 412-416. http://qk.cams.cma.gov.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20070367&flag=1
    [12]
    陈联寿.热带气旋研究和业务预报技术的发展.应用气象学报, 2006, 17(6): 672-681. http://qk.cams.cma.gov.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=200606116&flag=1
    [13]
    Emanuel K.Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years.Nature, 2005, 436: 686-688. doi:  10.1038/nature03906
    [14]
    彭祖赠, 孙韫玉. 模糊数学及其应用. 武汉: 武汉大学出版社, 2002: 1-465.
    [15]
    贺仲雄. 模糊数学与应用. 天津: 天津科技出版社, 1988: 15-75.
    [16]
    周浩亮.模糊数学基本理论及其应用. 建井技术, 1994, (21): 70-80. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-JJJS4Z1.018.htm
    [17]
    梁必骐, 樊琦, 杨洁, 等. 热带气旋灾害的模糊数学评价. 热带气象学报, 1999, 15(4): 305-311. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-RDQX199904002.htm
    [18]
    李登峰, 程春田, 陈守煜.部分信息不完全的多目标决策方法. 控制与决策, 1998, 13(1): 83-86.
  • 加载中
  • -->

Catalog

    Figures(1)  / Tables(3)

    Article views (4139) PDF downloads(2229) Cited by()
    • Received : 2008-11-06
    • Accepted : 2009-09-09
    • Published : 2009-12-31

    /

    DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint