Vol.21, NO.4, 2010
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Article Navigation >  Journal of Applied Meteorological Science  > 2010  >  21(4): 395-404
Chen Mingxuan, Gao Feng, Kong Rong, et al. Introduction of auto nowcasting system for convective storm and its performance in Beijing Olympics meteorological service. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2010, 21(4): 395-404.
Citation: Chen Mingxuan, Gao Feng, Kong Rong, et al. Introduction of auto nowcasting system for convective storm and its performance in Beijing Olympics meteorological service. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2010, 21(4): 395-404.
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Introduction of Auto nowcasting System for Convective Storm and Its Performance in Beijing Olympics Meteorological Service

  • 1.

    Institute of Urban Meteorology, CMA, Beijing 100089

  • 2.

    Beijng Meteorological Bureau, Beijing 100089

  • 3.

    Beijing Weather Forecast Office, Beijing 100089

  • Received Date: 2009-09-27
  • Rev Recd Date: 2010-02-09
  • Publish Date: 2010-08-31
    Abstract
  • The auto nowcasting system for convective storm (BJ-ANC) is an expert system that has been improved and further developed to many key algorithms and modules other than they are just introduced from US. The skill of the system is focused on nowcasting convective storm in Beijing and its vicinity. Key improvements have been made to the algorithms including quality control of CINRAD radar data, diagnosis and analysis of local observations from radars, satellites, AWSs, rawinsondes and meso NWP results from a WRF based rapid update cycling model, identification, analysis and tracking of storm cells, grid tracking and extrapolation of radar echo, rapid updating assimilation of radar data, quantitative precipitation estimate (QPE) and quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF), etc. The forecast factors produced by the above algorithms are closely related with initiation, evolution and decay of convective storm in general. These algorithms are integrated by a fuzzy logic algorithm under non dimensional modes with different weighting coefficients in the system and nowcasting products are generated. Based on many theoretical and experimental results, the relationship and conceptual model of boundary layer convergence line and initiation and evolution of storm have been imported into the system for nowcasting localized initiation and rapid evolution of storm. BJ-ANC system runs in real-time mode during 2008 summer time. The system performance for nowcasting initiation and rapid evolution of storm is improved after convergence line is adopted by interactive human entry function. Verification of storm cell extrapolation and 1 hour QPF in Beijing area and its vicinity during 2008 summer is performed using the B08FDP real time verification system. The results indicate extrapolation of storm cell in 1 hour is significant and the forecast deviation is small. The 1 hour QPF from the system is comparable with rainfall observation from AWSs, denoting the QPF products can be used for supporting nowcasting operation of convective rainstorm. The storm reflectivity nowcasts from the system have been demonstrated much more significant than those from persistence method. Storm case analyses indicate these products from the system are conductive for storm nowcasting operation and boundary layer convergence line is extremely helpful. In addition, retrieval of thermo dynamical fields can clearly indicate three dimensional structures of wind, convergence and temperature at low layer and further help forecasters make decisions on storm initiation and evolution nowcasts.
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    References(34)

  • Fig. 1  Operational running flow and main products of storm analysis and nowcasting from BJ-ANC

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    Fig. 2  Q-Q verification of 1-hour QPF by BJ-ANC from 11 July to 16 September 2008 in 500 km by 500 km domain (a) and each B08FDP system from 1 August to 20 September 2008 in Beijing are amade by B08FDP verification group (b)

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    Fig. 3  Verification of BJ-ANC extrapolation on storm cells above 35 dBZ during the period from l August to l6 September 2008

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    Fig. 4  Verification average of reflectivity nowcasts of 42 storm events from BJ-ANC and persistence method in Beijing area and its vicinity from 26 May to 19 September 2008

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    Fig. 5  Reflectivity at 0.4° elevation from Beijing S-band radar at 04 : 29 (a) and 05 : 29 (b), and 1-hour forecasts of storm evolution trend (c) and storm reflectivity (d) at 04: 29 14 August 2008

    (solid green lines denote human-entered location of boundary layer convergence line and dotted green lines denote 1-hour extrapolation tn Fig. 5c and Fig. 5d)

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    Fig. 6  VDRAS-based thermo-dynamical retrievals at 04:29 14 August 2008 (a) 562. 5-meter level vertical velocity and wind vectors, (b) 187. 5-meter level convergence/divergence and wind vectors, (c) 187. 5-meter level perturbation temperature and wind vectors, (d) 187. 5-meter level perturbation temperature gradient and wind vectors

    (solid black lines denote observed radar reflectivity above 35 dBZ)

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    Table  1  Improved and developed techniques and algorithms for BJ-ANC

    Table  2  Ingested real-time data by BJ-ANC in 2008 summer

    Table  3  Verification on 1-hour QPF from BJ-ANC period from 11 July to 16 September 2008
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    • Received : 2009-09-27
    • Accepted : 2010-02-09
    • Published : 2010-08-31
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