Simulating Future Climate Changes over North China with a High Resolution Regional Climate Model

Shi Ying; Gao Xuejie; Wu Jia; Giorgi F

Vol.21, NO.5, 2010

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Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2010 > 21(5): 580-589

Shi Ying, Gao Xuejie, Wu Jia, et al. Simulating future climate changes over North China with a high resolution regional climate model. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2010, 21(5): 580-589.

Citation:

Shi Ying, Gao Xuejie, Wu Jia, et al. Simulating future climate changes over North China with a high resolution regional climate model. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2010, 21(5): 580-589.

Shi Ying, Gao Xuejie, Wu Jia, et al. Simulating future climate changes over North China with a high resolution regional climate model. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2010, 21(5): 580-589.

Citation:

Shi Ying, Gao Xuejie, Wu Jia, et al. Simulating future climate changes over North China with a high resolution regional climate model. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2010, 21(5): 580-589.

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Simulating Future Climate Changes over North China with a High Resolution Regional Climate Model

1.
National Climate Center, Beijing 100081
2.
The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy

Received Date: 2009-12-04
Rev Recd Date: 2010-06-21
Publish Date: 2010-10-31

Abstract

Abstract

Multi decadal climate change simulations have been performed over China using 20 km horizontal resolution regional climate model (RegCM3) one way nested within a global model (FvGCM/CCM3, here in after called FvGCM) from NCAR/NASA. Two experiments are conducted, one for the period of 1961—1990, the other is for the future climate of 2071—2100 under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 emission scenario. The analysis focuses on the warm half of the year, from April to September. First, simulations of present climate conditions over North China by FvGCM and RegCM3 are compared with observations to assess the model performance. Results show that both models can reproduce the observed spatial patterns of surface air temperature and precipitation. Compared with FvGCM, RegCM3 shows a better performance especially in providing more spatial details of the surface variables. The changes (differences between future and present) of mean temperature and precipitation are analyzed and compared between the two models simulations. Significant warming in the end of 21st century is predicted by both models however their results are different both in spatial distribution and amount. Compared with FvGCM, a greater warming is simulated by RegCM3 in some areas of the northern part while in the southeast and the east of the region RegCM3 indicates the warming is slighter. General increase in mean precipitation is found in FvGCM simulation, in a range of less than 10% to exceeding 30%. While for RegCM3, the simulated precipitation increases in the north of Henan as well as Shandong, but changes little or even decreases in the northern part of the region is simulated. Future changes in extreme heat events simulated by RegCM3 are statistically analyzed using the days with daily maximum temperature no less than 35 ℃(D_T35) and the days with a heat index which includes the humidity factor also no less than 35 ℃(D_HI35). Results show a substantial increase of D_T35 over the whole region and increase of D_HI35over the plain areas. Increase in the maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD) is also simulated by the model over the region, especially in the north of Hebei Province. According to the classification of UNEP drought index (A_U), there will be significant less humid area and a corresponding increase of dry sub humid and semi arid, indicating the future increase of drought extent in the future over the region.
- climate change;
- regional climate model;
- North China

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References(36)

Figures and Tables

图 1 模式的模拟范围 (阴影部分)(a) 及华北地区的地形分布 (b)

Fig. 1 Model domain (shadedarea) (a) and to pography over North China (b)

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

图 2 华北地区4—9月平均地面气温和降水分布

(a) 观测气温, (b) 观测降水, (c) 全球模式模拟的气温, (d) 全球模式模拟的降水, (e) 区域模式模拟的气温, (f) 区域模式模拟的降水

Fig. 2 Mean temperature and precipitation from April to September over North China

(a) observed temperature, (b) observed precipitation, (c) temperature simulated by FvGCM, (d) precipitation simulated by FvGCM, (e) temperature simulated by RegCM3, (f) precipitation simulated by RegCM3

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

图 3 区域模式模拟华北地区当代和未来4—9月日最高气温的频率分布

Fig. 3 Frequency of dailymaximum temperature from April to September over North China

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

图 4 华北地区4—9月平均气温和降水变化

(a) 全球模式模拟的气温, (b) 区域模式模拟的气温, (c) 全球模式模拟的降水, (d) 区域模式模拟的降水

Fig. 4 Simulated mean temperature and precipitation changs from April to September over North China

(a) temperature change by FvGCM, (b) temperature change by RegCM3, (c) precipitation change by FvGCM, (d) precipitation change by RegCM3

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

图 5 华北地区4—9月D_T35和D_HI35的观测及区域模式对未来的模拟

(a) 观测D_T35, (b) 未来D_T35, (c) 观测D_HI35, (d) 未来D_HI35

Fig. 5 The observation and RegCM3 simulation of future D_T35 and D_HI35 from April to September over North China

(a) D_T35 in observation, (b) D_T35in A2, (c) D_HI35 in observation, (d) D_HI35 in A2

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

图 6 华北地区4—9月CDD和A_U的观测及区域模式对未来的模拟

(a) 观测CDD, (b) 未来CDD, (c) 观测A_U, (d) 未来A_U

Fig. 6 The observation and RegCM3 simulation of future CDD and A_U from April to September over North China

(a) CDD in observation, (b) CDD in A2, (c) A_U in observation, (d) A_Uin A2

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

表 1 华北地区4—9月全球和区域模式气温模拟与观测的相关系数和误差标准差

Table 1 The spatial correlation coefficient and standard deviation between the simulated and observed mean temperature from April to September over North China

表 2 华北地区4—9月全球和区域模式降水模拟与观测的相关系数和误差标准差

Table 2 The spatial correlation coefficient and standard deviation between the simulated and observed mean precipitation from April to September over North China

表 3 区域模式模拟华北区域内A_U各分类气候当代、未来的分布及其变化情况

Table 3 Climate types defined by A_U in RF and A2 and its change over North China simulated by RegCM3

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