Physical Basis of Short-term Climate Prediction in China and Short-term Climate Objective Prediction Methods

Wei Fengying

Vol.22, NO.1, 2011

Article Contents

Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2011 > 22(1): 1-11

Wei Fengying. Physical basis of short-term climate prediction in China and short-term climate objective prediction methods. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2011, 22(1): 1-11.

Citation:

Wei Fengying. Physical basis of short-term climate prediction in China and short-term climate objective prediction methods. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2011, 22(1): 1-11.

Wei Fengying. Physical basis of short-term climate prediction in China and short-term climate objective prediction methods. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2011, 22(1): 1-11.

Citation:

Wei Fengying. Physical basis of short-term climate prediction in China and short-term climate objective prediction methods. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2011, 22(1): 1-11.

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Physical Basis of Short-term Climate Prediction in China and Short-term Climate Objective Prediction Methods

Wei Fengying^,

State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081

Received Date: 2010-07-22
Rev Recd Date: 2010-10-15
Publish Date: 2011-02-28

Abstract

Abstract

Short-term climate prediction means forecasting monthly, seasonal, and inter-annual climate trends in the future based on the principles of atmospheric science by using climate dynamics, statistics and other means. Although many researches on the short-term climate prediction have been implemented, the prediction capability is far from meeting the demands of the national economy development. A brief review of the progress in China has been made on the short-term climate prediction in recent 60 years. The physical basis of short-term climate prediction, including the external forcing and internal characteristics of the atmosphere is described. Several new short-term climate objective prediction methods are proposed and their applications to operational prediction are introduced.The ElñNio/La Niña phenomenon and snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau in winter are two important external forcing factors for short-term prediction in China. The large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, for example, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), Southern Oscillation (SO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO), are also important physical foundation for short-term climate prediction. Since the 1990s, numerical climate models have made rapid progress, and statistical downscaling method is also an important way to improve the accuracy of short-term climate prediction. In recent years, role of inter-decadal variability in short-term climate prediction are also attracting great attentions.
- short-term climate prediction;
- physical basis;
- prediction method

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References(81)

Figures and Tables

图 1 淮河流域不同气候时段海表温度年代际分量平均值的差值分布

(阴影部分表示差值超过0.05显著性水平) (a) 1943—1964年与1922—1942年，(b) 1965—1997年与1943—1964年

Fig. 1 Difference of SST interdecadal sector between different climate periods of summer precipitation over Huaihe River Valley

(shaded area denotes passing the test of 0.05 level) (a) 1943—1964 and 1922—1942, (b) 1965—1997 and 1943—1964

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

图 2 青藏高原冬季积雪偏多年份 (a) 和偏少年份 (b) 我国夏季降水距平百分率合成分布

Fig. 2 Percentage anomalies of summer precipitation in China during rich snow years (a) and deficient snow years (b) in Tibetan Plateau

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

图 3 我国东部夏季降水年代际变化的时间-纬度剖面图

Fig. 3 The time-latitude cross section of interdecadal oscillation of summer precipitation in the east of China

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

图 4 长江中下游夏季降水与AO的30年滑动相关系数

Fig. 4 The 30-year running correlation coefficients between summer precipitation over the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze and AO

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

图 5 我国夏季降水趋势预测流程

Fig. 5 The predicting process for summer precipitation in China

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

图 6 1981—2000年降尺度方案预报我国东部夏季降水的评分

Fig. 6 The prediction scores for downscaling forecast of summer precipitation in the east of China

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

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