Threshold Values on Extreme High Temperature Events in China

Li Qingxiang; Huang Jiayou

Vol.22, NO.2, 2011

Article Contents

Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2011 > 22(2): 138-144

Li Qingxiang, Huang Jiayou. Threshold values on extreme high temperature events in China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2011, 22(2): 138-144.

Citation:

Li Qingxiang, Huang Jiayou. Threshold values on extreme high temperature events in China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2011, 22(2): 138-144.

Li Qingxiang, Huang Jiayou. Threshold values on extreme high temperature events in China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2011, 22(2): 138-144.

Citation:

Li Qingxiang, Huang Jiayou. Threshold values on extreme high temperature events in China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2011, 22(2): 138-144.

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Threshold Values on Extreme High Temperature Events in China

Li Qingxiang^{1
,
,},
Huang Jiayou²

1.
National Meteorological Information Center, Beijing 100081
2.
School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871

Received Date: 2010-02-03
Rev Recd Date: 2011-01-26
Publish Date: 2011-04-30

Abstract

Abstract

The threshold values are very important to define the indices of extreme climate events. Usually, the 90 percentile threshold value is used as the threshold values of extreme high temperature events, while the specific methods of categorization and calculation lead to different threshold values. In order to find the most suitable method, the quality controlled and homogenized daily maximum temperature data in China for the period of 1951—2008 are checked, and some missing data are reconstructed. Analysis is conducted using a new data for 1961—2008 in 224 selected stations. The preliminary analysis shows that the daily data series of most stations are not fit for normal distribution as generally believed. Based on the analysis above, the comparison for the threshold values falling into the percentiles of the extreme events of maximum temperature is accomplished using three different methods (including two traditional methods of calculating threshold values based on the assumed normal distribution and a new method by which the threshold values are calculated based on the sample probability distribution).The results show that the evaluation of the threshold values on the method using the real sample frequency distribution to simulate the probability distribution (the new method) has got the best results than using the other traditional threshold values calculating methods. Based on the comparisons, the threshold values of extreme events of maximum temperature in China have been developed with the 30-year sample climate phase. The following inspection shows the threshold values can reflect the real threshold values on the maximum temperature in daily use, and they are more stable and representative. In addition, the distribution charts of the threshold values developed by the different methods are drawn, and it's found that except for in Southwest and Northeast China, Qinghai, Inner Mongolia, the threshold values of extreme high temperature events for most part of China are all above 35 ℃, which proves that it is reasonable of using the threshold 35 ℃ as the standard of high temperature disasters.
- climatology;
- extreme climate events;
- threshold;
- maximum temperature;
- probability distribution

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References(25)

Figures and Tables

Fig. 1 The geographical distribution for maximum temperature stations in China

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Fig. 2 Annual differences of statistical values t calculated by Method 3 and Method 1

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Fig. 3 The geographical distribution for differences of thresholds calculated by Method 3 and Method 1(unit: ℃)

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Fig. 4 The distribution for threshold values of climate extremes in summer (unit: ℃)

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Table 1 The number of stations and data missing days in daily maximum temperature dataset

日数范围/d	站数	比例/%
0	117	47
1~3	82	33
4~6	20	8
7~10	5	2
11~365	14	5
＞366	12	5

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Table 2 Mean root squire error for interpolated maximum temperature data (unit: ℃)

月份	平均值	均方根误差
1	1.10	0.37
2	1.10	0.49
3	1.04	0.26
4	1.46	0.42
5	1.63	0.46
6	2.23	0.27
7	2.59	0.51
8	2.56	0.83
9	2.16	0.62
10	1.48	0.47
11	1.26	0.56
12	1.14	0.32

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Table 3 The threshold values by 3 methods for summer temperature in 1997 (unit: ℃)

统计量	方法1	方法2	方法3
最大值	39.3	39.3	40.5
最小值	21.1	21.0	22.1
平均值	33.3	33.3	34.7

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Table 4 The threshold values of climate extremes by 3 methods for summer temperature

项目	方法1	方法2	方法3
最大值/℃	39.7	39.7	41.0
最小值/℃	20.8	20.8	22.1
平均值/℃	34.0	33.9	35.3
大于35℃站点所占比例/%	40	38	57

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