The Patterns of Anomalous Climate and Their Pre-circulation Signals in November

Yang Xiaobo; Wang Yongguang; Liang Xiaoyun

Vol.22, NO.3, 2011

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Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2011 > 22(3): 275-282

Yang Xiaobo, Wang Yongguang, Liang Xiaoyun. The patterns of anomalous climate and their pre-circulation signals in November. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2011, 22(3): 275-282.

Citation:

Yang Xiaobo, Wang Yongguang, Liang Xiaoyun. The patterns of anomalous climate and their pre-circulation signals in November. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2011, 22(3): 275-282.

Yang Xiaobo, Wang Yongguang, Liang Xiaoyun. The patterns of anomalous climate and their pre-circulation signals in November. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2011, 22(3): 275-282.

Citation:

Yang Xiaobo, Wang Yongguang, Liang Xiaoyun. The patterns of anomalous climate and their pre-circulation signals in November. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2011, 22(3): 275-282.

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The Patterns of Anomalous Climate and Their Pre-circulation Signals in November

1.
Institute of Plateau Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Chengdu 610072
2.
National Climate Center, Beijing 100081
3.
Sichuan Provincial Climate Center, Chengdu 610072

Received Date: 2010-03-10
Rev Recd Date: 2011-02-28
Publish Date: 2011-06-30

Abstract

Abstract

Based on the stationery data of temperature and precipitation of 160 stations in China in November, the reanalysis data of 500 hPa geopotential height (GPH) of NCEP/NCAR, the four circulation patterns corresponding to the warm and wet, warm and dry, cold and wet, cold and dry in the monsoon regions over eastern China are analysed, and the previous and corresponding circulations are inspected with t-test method. The time series of positive station numbers about the temperature and precipitation are labeled as S₁ and S₂ respectively after removing long-term trend more than 9 years. Then the typical years according to the cold, warm, dry and wet patterns could be acquired by using the values of S₁+S₂ and S₁-S₂. In detail, the larger values of S₁+S₂ are defined as the warm and wet years, and the smaller values are defined as the cold and dry years. Meanwhile, the larger values of S₁-S₂ are represented as the warm and dry years, and the smaller values are represented as the cold and wet years. The results are as follows: The warm (cold) pattern takes on the inactive (active) blocking high over Ural Mountain and zonal (meridional) circulation prevails at middle and high latitudes. The dry (wet) type is corresponding to the weak (strong) and eastward (westward) of subtropical high in western North Pacific. The circulation difference of warm and dry pattern minus cold and wet pattern in t-test is in meridional direction, similar to the EU pattern. The circulation difference of warm and wet pattern minus cold and dry pattern in t-test is in zonal direction, similar to the anti-PNA pattern. The pentad running-mean of monthly circulation has significant differences for the warm and dry (cold and wet) type in the beginning time on 6, 11, 16 September and warm and wet (cold and dry) type in the beginning time on 11, 16 and 21 September which indicate that the previous circulation has significant implication for climate prediction. The characteristics of cold and wet (warm and dry) type are as below: On one hand, the GPH is high (low) at high latitude and low (high) at middle and low latitudes, and meanwhile AO is negative (positive), leading to low (high) temperature over northern China; on the other hand, the GPH is low (high) at the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and the active (inactive) southern branch trough induces the more (less) precipitation.
- cold and warm;
- dry and wet;
- circulation type;
- EU;
- PNA

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References(16)

Figures and Tables

图 1 1955—2004年S₂′与全国160站11月降水的相关系数 (a) 和S₁′与全国160站11月温度的相关系数 (b)

(阴影区为信度超过95%的区域)

Fig. 1 The correlation of S₂′ to precipitation of 160 stations in November (a) and S₁′ to temperature of 160 stations in November (b) during 1955—2004 (the area passing the test of 95% level is shaded)

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图 2 近50年来S₁+S₂(实线) 和S₁-S₂(虚线) 的时间演变序列

Fig. 2 The time series of S₁+S₂ (solid line) and S₁-S₂ (dashed line) in recent 50 years

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

图 3 暖干年平均 (a) 和冷湿年平均 (b) 的11月500 hPa高度距平场 (单位：gpm；阴影区为负值区)

Fig. 3 The mean geopotential height anomaly of warm and dry years (a), cold and wet years (b) at 500 hPa in November (unit: gpm; the negative is shaded)

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

图 4 暖湿年平均 (a) 和冷干年平均 (b) 的11月500 hPa高度距平场 (单位：gpm；阴影区为负值区)

Fig. 4 The mean geopotential height anomaly of warm and wet years (a), cold and dry years (b) at 500 hPa in November (unit: gpm; the negative is shaded)

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

图 5 11月500 hPa高度场的t检验值分布 (阴影区为信度超过90%的显著差异区)

(a) 暖干年平均与冷湿年平均偏差, (b) 暖湿年平均与冷干年平均偏差

Fig. 5 The t-test of geopotential height anomaly of warm and dry years to cold and wet years (a), warm and wet years to cold and dry years (b) at 500 hPa in November

(the area passing the test of 90% level is shaded)

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

图 6 不同时段暖干年平均与冷湿年平均的前期500 hPa高度场偏差t检验值分布

(阴影区为信度超过90%的显著差异区)

Fig. 6 The t-test of geopotential height anomaly of warm and dry years to cold and wet years at 500 hPa in different lead-time (the area passing the test of 90% level is shaded)

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

图 7 不同时段暖湿年平均与冷干年平均的前期500 hPa高度场偏差t检验值分布

(阴影区为信度超过90%的显著差异区)

Fig. 7 The t-test of geopotential height anomaly of warm and wet years to cold and dry years at 500 hPa in different lead-time (the area passing the test of 90% level is shaded)

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

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