Winter Wheat Drought Disaster Insurance Risk Assessment and Regionalization in Henan Province

Through quantifying the hazards and distribution of meteorological disasters which impact on crop growth and final yield, taking the drought of winter wheat in Henan Province as an example, a system methodology of the insurance risk assessment and regionalization of agrometeorological disasters is proposed.Based on the calculation of relative humility index in different growth stages, taking the moisture content coercion sensitive coefficient given by Jensen multiplication model as the weighting factor, winter wheat drought index of entire period is established, while considering the first three months before emergence as the period before sowing, using the precipitation anomalous percentage combined with the contribution factors, the winter wheat drought index of entire period is revised and meanwhile the suitable winter wheat drought index for Henan is established.After that, from the aspects of climatic factors, crop yield and social-economic, and after considering the characteristics of agricultural insurances and their requirements for elaboration, specialization, four indicators are used, including drought risk level, vulnerability index, yield risk index and anti-disaster ability, to evaluate the disastrous factors, vulnerability of crops, hazards of disaster events and ability of disaster prevention and reduction. Among these indexes, considering the social economy level and individual management scale, the vulnerability index is constructed by the winter wheat production efficiency index, production specialized index, and exposed index, which manifests the characteristics of agricultural insurance risk regionalization different from the general insurance risk regionalization.Finally, using these four indexes and cluster analysis method, weather index insurance risk regionalization and policy-related insurance risk regionalization are carried out in winter wheat drought at county level in Henan Province. The risk regionalization results of weather index insurance show that most counties located in the west of Henan belong to high risk areas, the south part of Henan belongs to low risk area, while majority of the other counties belong to medium risk areas. The risk regionalization results of policy-related insurance show that most counties located in the west of Henan belong to high risk areas, counties located in south, middle and north of Henan belong to medium risk areas, while most countries located in the southwest and individual counties located in the middle belong to low risk areas. There are remarkable differences between these two regionalization results, for better regional agricultural insurance and implement differential premium rate, different regionalization indexes and methods are required according to their characteristics and demands.Some quantitative analysis conclusions could be combined with elevation, soil types, knowledge level of peasant, GDP level, the agricultural insurance popularization situation as well as space and time rules of the agrometeorological disasters, further consummating the results of crop insurance risk assessment and regionalization, in order to instruct the peasant to choose the types of insurance more properly and the insurance company to arrange the premium rate more reasonably.