The Hail Risk Zoning in Beijing Integrated with the Result of Its Loss Assessment

Hu Haibo; Dong Pengjie; Pan Jinjun

Vol.22, NO.5, 2011

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Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2011 > 22(5): 612-620

Hu Haibo, Dong Pengjie, Pan Jinjun. The hail risk zoning in Beijing integrated with the result of its loss assessment. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2011, 22(5): 612-620.

Citation:

Hu Haibo, Dong Pengjie, Pan Jinjun. The hail risk zoning in Beijing integrated with the result of its loss assessment. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2011, 22(5): 612-620.

Hu Haibo, Dong Pengjie, Pan Jinjun. The hail risk zoning in Beijing integrated with the result of its loss assessment. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2011, 22(5): 612-620.

Citation:

Hu Haibo, Dong Pengjie, Pan Jinjun. The hail risk zoning in Beijing integrated with the result of its loss assessment. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2011, 22(5): 612-620.

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The Hail Risk Zoning in Beijing Integrated with the Result of Its Loss Assessment

1.
Institute of Urban Meteorology, CMA, Beijing 100089
2.
Beijing Meteorological Bureau, Beijing 100089

Received Date: 2011-01-31
Rev Recd Date: 2011-06-24
Publish Date: 2011-10-31

Abstract

Abstract

In order to recognize the meteorological disaster risk and assess it, the task of risk zoning is started exploring the possibility and severity influenced by the disaster, and the distribution of risk area zone is determined. The study is very important for the disaster avoidance or prevention, and is widely utilized in disaster emergency and meteorological service of supporting decision regulation. Normally the risk zoning depends upon the probability of extreme weather or climate events, such as the occurrence or probability of extreme meteorological elements. However, the risk of disaster focuses on the intensity or loss of the disaster besides the probability. Moreover, the index of hail risk zoning in Beijing is carried out based on the formula that risk equals probability multiplied by loss, and it can avoid the solely doing statistics on the probability of extreme weather and climate events. The loss assessment is firstly fulfilled by the Gray-correlation Model with the data of disaster occurred in Beijing during recent 30 years. Meanwhile, the BG algorithm is introduced here for the time-series analysis on the disaster data, and it is found that the year of 1997 in the time-series is an inconsistent standpoint, which means that the data should be separated into two series for its inconsistence. Based on this judgment, the expectations of the bias from 1997 are considered to be the variation modulus. On the other hand, with the result of loss assessment, the hail occurring frequency is calculated out by 10 groups divided by average intervals form 0 to 1 of the loss index value. It can be utilized in deducing normalized hail risk index of Beijing, with which the risk zoning standards can be determined. Eventually the risk index is calculated with the risk function, and the indexes are also summed up by groups. Furthermore, the risk zonings are symbolized upon the index with its zoning standards. From the result of risk zoning, it can be concluded that the relatively higher hail risk zone mainly locate in urban area of Beijing, such as the centers of Miyun and Pinggu, while the risks of the mountain area and its piedmont, are relatively lower.
- hail;
- risk zoning;
- loss assessment

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References(21)

Figures and Tables

Fig. 1 The technique flow chart of hail disaster zoning in Beijing

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Fig. 2 The time series analysis result by the BG algorithm

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Fig. 3 The map of the hail risk zoning status in Beijing

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Fig. 4 The map of hail frequency distribution in Beijing from 1980 to 2009

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Table 1 The conversion functions of gray correlation index for hail disaster

指标	转换函数
受灾人口
受灾面积
经济损失

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Table 2 The partial result of loss evaluating by Gray-correlation Model

日期	地点	统一物价的经济损失/万元	受灾人口/人	受灾面积 /hm²	人口系数	面积系数	经济损失系数	归一化关联度	关联度高斯变换结果
1981-09-18	南城	2568.995	643	452	0.616	0.620	0.903	0.713	5.507
2007-07-09	北七家镇	2194.208	3518	1518	0.778	0.730	0.929	0.812	8.617
1993-07-07	黑山寨乡	217.9684	5051	2939	0.824	0.806	0.724	0.785	7.625
2003-06-27	长陵	3592.011	5051	2939	0.824	0.806	0.852	0.827	9.231
2006-06-24	长陵	441.5091	743	329	0.627	0.596	0.807	0.677	2.340
2007-07-09	长陵镇	2194.208	3518	1518	0.778	0.729	0.929	0.812	8.617
1981-09-18	气象站	2568.995	643	452	0.616	0.620	0.903	0.713	5.508

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Table 3 The statistics result of hail occurring frequency in Beijing

系数范围	频次/(点次/年)
0~0.1	94.933
0.1~0.2	31.233
0.2~0.3	28.633
0.3~0.4	19.267
0.4~0.5	13.500
0.5~0.6	5.167
0.6~0.7	1.700
0.7~0.8	1.033
0.8~0.9	0.233
0.9~1	0

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Table 4 The risk zoning standard of hail disaster in Beijing

等级	划分原则 (情景假设依据)	等级标准/km²
极高风险	[5R′，+∞)	[9.504，+∞)
高风险	[2.5R′，5R′)	[5.702，9.504)
中等风险	[0.5R′，2.5R′)	[0.95，5.702)
低风险	[0.1R′，0.5R′)	[0.19，0.95)
极低风险	[0，0.1R′)	[0，0.19)

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