Monitoring of Low Temperature in Fujian Based on the Distance to the Coastline and GIS Technology

Wang Jiayi; Chen Hui; Xia Lihua; Pan Weihua; Cai Wenhua

Vol.23, NO.1, 2012

Article Contents

Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2012 > 23(1): 96-104

Wang Jiayi, Chen Hui, Xia Lihua, et al. Monitoring of low temperature in Fujian based on the distance to the coastline and GIS technology. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2012, 23(1): 96-104.

Citation:

Wang Jiayi, Chen Hui, Xia Lihua, et al. Monitoring of low temperature in Fujian based on the distance to the coastline and GIS technology. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2012, 23(1): 96-104.

Wang Jiayi, Chen Hui, Xia Lihua, et al. Monitoring of low temperature in Fujian based on the distance to the coastline and GIS technology. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2012, 23(1): 96-104.

Citation:

Wang Jiayi, Chen Hui, Xia Lihua, et al. Monitoring of low temperature in Fujian based on the distance to the coastline and GIS technology. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2012, 23(1): 96-104.

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Monitoring of Low Temperature in Fujian Based on the Distance to the Coastline and GIS Technology

1.
Fujian Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Fuzhou 350001
2.
Fujian Provincial Meteorological Observatory, Fuzhou 350001

Received Date: 2011-01-14
Rev Recd Date: 2011-10-20
Publish Date: 2012-02-29

Abstract

Abstract

Based on the 1:250000 Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data and statistical data of the air temperature of 67 weather stations, considering the distance to coastline in Fujian Province considering the feedback effect of ocean to continent, the geographic mathematical model is established depending on the connections between factors such as the lowest temperature, latitude, longitude, altitude, and is used to simulate the fine distribution of lowest temperature in cold air processes of winter from 2008 to 2010.On the basis of the ascertainment of coastline and proven distributions, the appropriating calculation formula of the distance to coastline is ensured and the three monitoring models of low temperature processes are founded based on the choice of different distance to coastline or no distance to coastline. Moreover, the models are analyzed comparably and the best model is applied to simulate the low temperature. Contemporarily, the method of selecting appropriate the distance to coastline is approved by regression models and integrative residual sum of squares, and the transacting process of simulated errors in the joint of inter and outer coastline is introduced.The results show that the lowest temperature is well simulated by introducing the appropriate distance to coastline to the low temperature monitoring model during the cold air processes. With the increase of average cooling range of cold air, the efficiency of distance to the coastline factor to the value of the minimum temperature simulation decreases. Moreover, the distances to the coastline are changed with the different cold air processes and are not more than 50 kilometers. Furthermore, the method of how to select appropriate distance to the coastline is confirmed based on the value of different square sum. Although there is adjusting effect of ocean temperature to land temperature, with the increase of distance to coastline, the feedback effect on temperature of ocean to land decreases, and the mathematical model made up of factors such as longitude, latitude, altitude and the distance to coastline is suitable for low temperature monitoring simulation in regions where the distance to the coastline are more than 50 kilometers. Similarly, the mathematical model made up of factors as longitude, latitude, altitude and the distance to coastline is suitable for low temperature monitoring simulation in regions of the distance less more than 50 kilometers, which could increase the precision of low temperature monitoring simulation and embody the adjustment function of sea to land temperature. Finally, 9 destined samples (each sample is selected optionally from one city of Fujian) are verified in the model and the simulated results of low temperature are proved to match with actual situation substantially.
- Geographic Information System (GIS);
- appropriate distance to the coastline;
- cold air processes;
- temperature simulation;
- geographic factors

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References(31)

Figures and Tables

Fig. 1 The distance to coastline diagram of meteorological stations in Fujian Province

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Fig. 2 The distribution of minimum air temperature simulation in Fujian Province during 6—11 March 2010

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Fig. 3 Isoline of minimum air temperature in Fujian Province during 6—11 March 2010

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Table 1 The correlation coefficients of T_DP to different d

离海距	相关系数	残差平方和/℃
d	-0.7200	349.15
1/d	0.3879	615.85
d^1/2	-0.7698	295.29
d^1/4	-0.7767	287.57
d^1/6	-0.7724	292.39
lnd	-0.7493	317.92
lgd	-0.7493	317.92

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Table 2 The contrast of primal model and merged the distance to the coastline in air temperature simulation

过程	模型	a₀	a₁	a₂	a₃	a₄	R_max/℃	R_min/℃	残差平方和/℃²
1	A	57.60	1.14×10^-5	-2.13×10^-5	-0.0045	-0.147	3.68	0.01	86.2
1	B	66.41	1.80×10^-5	-2.62×10^-5	-0.0048		3.75	0.04	92.4
2	A	47.60	1.16×10^-5	-1.85×10^-5	-0.0049	-0.183	3.02	0.03	88.0
2	B	57.36	1.97×10^-5	-2.45×10^-5	-0.0053		3.38	0.09	97.6
3	A	39.69	7.60×10^-5	-1.47×10^-5	-0.0068	-0.006	2.42	0.00	51.7
3	B	40.02	7.90×10^-6	-1.49×10^-5	-0.0068		2.43	0.02	51.7
注：a₀为常数项，a₁~a₄为系数, R_max，R_min为最低气温实测值与模拟值的最大、最小残差绝对值。

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Table 3 The average cooling range of different regions and processes (unit:℃)

过程	范围	平均降温幅度/℃
1	福建省	11.73
	d≤45 km	9.55
	d＞45 km	13.38
2	福建省	7.18
	d≤41 km	6.45
	d＞41 km	7.69
3	福建省	13.93
	d≤60 km	12.06
	d＞60 km	15.55

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Table 4 Appropriate distance to the coastline confirmed by the method of integrative residual sum of squares (unit:℃²)

离海距/km	过程1			过程2			过程3
离海距/km	区域内残差平方和	区域外残差平方和	综合残差平方和	区域内残差平方和	区域外残差平方和	综合残差平方和	区域内残差平方和	区域外残差平方和	综合残差平方和
25	16.78	36.52	53.30	21.49	42.42	63.91	11.19	28.30	39.49
50	30.33	19.01	49.34	37.34	24.52	61.87	15.76	21.38	37.14
100	48.62	16.40	65.02	50.91	20.84	71.75	32.11	12.45	44.56
150	64.74	6.40	71.14	65.05	6.83	71.88	43.33	3.75	47.08
200	84.59	1.05	85.64	83.35	1.94	85.29	50.73	0.12	50.85
45	28.10	19.53	47.63
41				35.42	25.01	60.43
60							15.92	21.18	37.10

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Table 5 The influence of the appropriate distance to the coastline in low temperature simulation models

过程	离海距/km	a₀	a₁	a₂	a₃	a₄	R_max/℃	R_min/℃	残差平方和/℃²
1	d≤45	116.33	4.82×10^-5	-5.14×10^-5	-0.0020	-0.042	2.36	0.078	28.10
1	d＞45	48.34	1.02×10^-5	-1.89×10^-5	-0.0037		1.79	0.01	19.53
2	d≤41	95.38	3.83×10^-5	-4.22×10^-5	-0.0022	-0.093	2.54	0.02	35.42
2	d＞41	37.38	1.28×10^-5	-1.65×10^-5	-0.0045		2.31	0.01	25.01
3	d≤60	76.12	2.66×10^-5	-3.22×10^-5	-0.0040	-0.021	2.04	0.002	15.92
3	d＞60	34.15	8.80×10^-6	-1.30×10^-5	-0.0068		2.09	0.024	21.18

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Table 6 The actual minimum air temperature value, simulated value and absolute error of validate stations

过程	比较项目	明溪	建阳	上杭	永春	平和	闽侯	福安	莆田	同安
1	d/km	>45	>45	>45	>45	>45	>45	< 45	< 45	< 45
	实测值/℃	-4	-3.5	0.9	1.7	1.8	1.8	-0.1	6.8	6.2
	模拟值/℃	-3.00	-3.39	-0.41	1.02	2.57	1.32	-2.13	5.04	5.02
	误差绝对值/℃	1.00	0.11	1.31	0.68	0.77	0.48	2.03	1.76	1.18
2	d/km	>41	>41	>41	>41	>41	>41	< 41	< 41	< 41
	实测值/℃	-6.6	-5.6	-1.9	-0.7	0.3	-0.2	-1.2	3.1	2.8
	模拟值/℃	-5.63	-5.40	-3.51	-1.48	-0.36	-0.58	-3.64	2.51	2.72
	误差绝对值/℃	0.97	0.20	1.61	0.78	0.66	0.38	2.44	0.59	0.08
3	d/km	>60	>60	>60	< 60	< 60	< 60	< 60	< 60	< 60
	实测值/℃	-2.4	-1.5	1.2	1.8	3.4	1.5	0.9	4.3	4.1
	模拟值/℃	-1.63	-1.03	0.60	1.53	3.00	2.72	-0.95	3.85	4.13
	误差绝对值/℃	0.77	0.47	0.60	0.27	0.40	1.22	1.85	0.45	0.03

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