The Identification and Changing Characteristics of Regional Low Temperature Extreme Events

Gong Zhiqiang; Wang Xiaojuan; Cui Donglin; Wang Yanjiao; Ren Fumin; Feng Guolin; Zhang Qiang; Zou Xukai; Wang Xiaoling

Vol.23, NO.2, 2012

Article Contents

Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2012 > 23(2): 195-204

Gong Zhiqiang, Wang Xiaojuan, Cui Donglin, et al. The identification and changing characteristics of regional low temperature extreme events. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2012, 23(2): 195-204.

Citation:

Gong Zhiqiang, Wang Xiaojuan, Cui Donglin, et al. The identification and changing characteristics of regional low temperature extreme events. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2012, 23(2): 195-204.

Gong Zhiqiang, Wang Xiaojuan, Cui Donglin, et al. The identification and changing characteristics of regional low temperature extreme events. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2012, 23(2): 195-204.

Citation:

Gong Zhiqiang, Wang Xiaojuan, Cui Donglin, et al. The identification and changing characteristics of regional low temperature extreme events. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2012, 23(2): 195-204.

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The Identification and Changing Characteristics of Regional Low Temperature Extreme Events

National Climate Center, Beijing 100081

Received Date: 2011-06-11
Rev Recd Date: 2012-01-31
Publish Date: 2012-04-30

Abstract

Abstract

When an extreme low temperature event occurs, it generally impacts a certain area and lasts for some time, which means that it is a regional extreme event. How to identify a regional extreme low temperature is the basis for studies in this area. An objective identification technique for regional low temperature extreme events (OITRLTE) is developed. This technique consists of four parts: Defining the threshold value of extreme low temperature for single station; identifying abnormality belts; distinguishing temporal continuous process of the event; an integrated index system. The index is specially developed based on the features of regional events, which includes 5 single indices: Extreme intensity, accumulated intensity, accumulated area, maximum impacted area and duration, as well as an integrated index. Case studies show that OITREE is skillful in identifying regional low temperature extreme events (RLTEs). It can objectively and automatically capture daily impacted areas of a regional event for its duration, and reasonably putting them in a "string" to shape an entire regional event. Then based on the winter daily minimum temperature from 1960 to 2009, spatial distribution and temporal changes of RLTEs is also investigated. Results show that probability distribution of lowest temperature and latitude of geometrical center of RLTEs both obey the two-peak distribution, and the center of RLTEs mainly locates at two belts of 32°N and 42°N. The annual accumulative value of the frequency, intensity and max covering area of RLTEs is decreasing, and during the end of 1980s this trend changes and the trend becomes stationary after 1990s. These characteristics might be caused by the RLTEs with long duration and wide space range that accounted for top 10% of all events. Considering the good correlation between RLTE indexes, economic loss and the number of stricken people on cold disasters, an integration index is defined based on RLTE indexes. The weighted coefficients of the first-grade integrated index are defined based on the correlation between the yearly cumulative value of first-grade index, the corresponding yearly index of economic losses and the number of stricken people on cold disasters. So, in this way the weight coefficients denote the correlation between regional low temperature extreme events and corresponding disaster losses to some extent.
- regional low temperature extreme events;
- objective identification technique;
- integration index;
- probability distribution

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References(28)

Figures and Tables

Fig. 1 Information combination of temporal possible events and low temperature belts

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图 2 2008年1月21日开始的西北—华南型区域性极端低温事件站点分布

(黑点表示达到低温极端阈值的站点；彩色填充区表示逐日累积强度值)

Fig. 2 Daily station distribution of regional extreme low temperature event located at Northwest—South China from 21 Jan 2008

(black point denotes the station of regional extreme low temperature events; shaded area denotes the daily difference between minimum temperature and threshold value of extreme low temperature, L_d)

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图 3 2008年1月21日—2月16日西北—华南型区域性极端低温事件指标逐日演变

(红线为五点平滑曲线)

Fig. 3 Daily change of index of regional low temperature extreme events located at Nouthwest—South China from 21 Jan 2008 to 16 Feb 2008

(red line denotes 5-point moving smooth)

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图 4 2008年和2011年两次区域性极端低温事件空间分布

(a)2008年1月21日开始的事件, (b)2010年12月30日开始的事件

Fig. 4 Station distribution of regional low temperature extreme events which started from 21 Jan 2008(a) and 30 Dec 2010(b), respectively (black point denotes the station of regional extreme low temperature events, and shaded area denotes the process accumulative anomalies between the minimum temperature and the threshold value of extreme low temperature, L)

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图 5 历年区域性极端低温事件的不同指标的出现频次

(a) 极端强度, (b) 中心位置, (c) 最大覆盖面积，(d) 持续天数

Fig. 5 Probability distribution of main indexes of regional low temperature extreme events

(a)Q, (b) location of geometrical center, (c)A_max, (d)N

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图 6 1960—2008年区域性极端低温事件各项指标逐年累积值的距平图

(a) 极端强度, (b) 累积强度, (c) 最大覆盖面积, (d) 累积面积, (e) 持续天数

Fig. 6 Annual change of main indexes of regional low temperature extreme events during 1960—2008 (a)Q, (b)L, (c)A_max, (d)A, (e)N

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Fig. 7 Annual change of integration index

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Table 1 Information of two regional low temperature extreme events

实况	开始时间	结束时间	极端强度/℃	累积强度/℃	累积覆盖面积/(10⁴km²)	持续天数/d	中心位置
2008年1月21日开始的西北— 华南型区域性极端低温事件	2008-01-21	2008-02-15	-39.1	-127524.0	7929.8	26	32.98°N, 106.02°E
2010年12月31日开始的全国型区域性极端低温事件	2010-12-30	2011-02-02	-49.6	-120463.0	9454.8	35	35.38°N, 109.30°E

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Table 2 Correlation coefficients between annual accumulative values of different regional low temperature extreme event index and economic loss with the number of stricken people on cold disasters

统计量	Q	L	A	N	A_max
经济损失的相关系数	-0.57	-0.54	0.50	0.61	0.65
受灾人数的相关系数	-0.47	-0.35	0.25	0.58	0.43
平均相关系数	-0.52	-0.45	0.38	0.60	0.54
权重系数	-0.21	-0.18	0.15	0.24	0.22
综合指数的相关系数	-0.69	-0.82	0.85	0.91	0.81

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