Application of GRAPES Meteorological and Hydrological Coupled Model to Flood Forecast

Wang Lili; Chen Dehui; Zhao Linna

Vol.23, NO.3, 2012

Article Contents

Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2012 > 23(3): 274-284

Wang Lili, Chen Dehui, Zhao Linna. Application of GRAPES meteorological and hydrological coupled model to flood forecast. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2012, 23(3): 274-284.

Citation:

Wang Lili, Chen Dehui, Zhao Linna. Application of GRAPES meteorological and hydrological coupled model to flood forecast. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2012, 23(3): 274-284.

Wang Lili, Chen Dehui, Zhao Linna. Application of GRAPES meteorological and hydrological coupled model to flood forecast. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2012, 23(3): 274-284.

Citation:

Wang Lili, Chen Dehui, Zhao Linna. Application of GRAPES meteorological and hydrological coupled model to flood forecast. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2012, 23(3): 274-284.

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Application of GRAPES Meteorological and Hydrological Coupled Model to Flood Forecast

1.
National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081
2.
Public Meteorological Service Center, CMA, Beijing 100081

Received Date: 2011-07-25
Rev Recd Date: 2012-04-06
Publish Date: 2012-06-30

Abstract

Abstract

The GRAPES (Global-Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System)_Meso model developed by China Meteorological Administration is coupled with a hydrological model to increase lead-time of flood forecast. GRAPES_Meso model is run in 15 km×15 km horizontal resolution and 5 km×5 km horizontal resolution. The initial fields and lateral boundaries of 15 km×15 km horizontal resolution of GRAPES is provided by global NCEP forecast datasets, and the initial fields and lateral boundaries of 5 km×5 km horizontal resolution of GRAPES is provided by 15 km×15 km horizontal resolution of GRAPES. In order to match the input scale of hydrological model, quantitative precipitation forecasts of GRAPES_Meso model is downscaled to 5 km×5 km horizontal resolution. Xin'anjiang model and grid-based distributed Xin'anjiang model are used, which have been widely applied and proven effective in flood forecasting and hydrological simulation in humid and semi-humid regions of China for a long term. Wangjiaba Station and Xixian Basin in the upper reaches of the Huai River are chosen as sensitive areas. The two hydrological models are driven by forecast datasets of GRAPES. Upstream Wangjiaba Station, the basin is divided into 10 sub-basins for the coupling experiment of Xin'anjiang model. And Xixian Basin is for the coupling experiment of grid-based distributed Xin'anjiang model. A flood which maintains from 0800 BT 28 August to 1400 BT 29 September in 2009 is forecasted by these two models. The experiment results show that compared with observed precipitation, quantitative products of GRAPES model in 15 km×15 km and 5 km×5 km horizontal resolutions are well consistent. The quantitative products of GRAPES model with 5 km×5 km are larger than the quantitative products of GRAPES model with 15 km×15 km. A promising tool is given by GRAPES meteorological and hydrological coupled hydrologic model to increase lead-time of real-time flood forecast, compared with that driven by raingauge observation. The accuracy of the flood forecasting based on the precipitation prediction of GRAPES model is approximate to the precipitation prediction. The performance may be better if the input requirements for hydrological models are exactly met.
- flood forecast;
- GRAPES model;
- coupling method;
- hydrological model;
- the Huai River Basin

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References(36)

Figures and Tables

Fig. 1 Digital drainage map of Xixian Basin

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图 2 2009年8月29日08：00—14:00累积降水量

(曲线所包围区域为试验区域，下同)

Fig. 2 Accumulated precipitation from 0800 BT to 1400 BT on 29 Aug 2009

(the circled area is Wangjiaba Basin for test)

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Fig. 3 Accumulated precipitation from 0800 BT 28 Aug 2009 to 2000 BT 30 Aug 2009

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Fig. 4 The observed hydrographs against predictions in Wangjiaba Basin from 28 Aug to 9 Sep in 2009

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图 5 2009年8月28日—9月9日王家坝站以上流域流量与水文模型模拟流量时间演变

(a) 起始时间为2009年8月28日08:00, 预见期为84 h, (b) 起始时间为2009年8月28日14:00, 预见期为78 h, (c) 起始时间为2009年8月28日20:00, 预见期为72 h, (d) 起始时间为2009年8月29日02:00, 预见期为66 h

Fig. 5 Observed hydrographs and simulated hydrographs by hydrology model in Wangjiaba Basin from 28 Aug to 9 Sep in 2009

(a) initial time: 0800 BT 28 Aug 2009, lead-time: 84 h, (b) initial time: 1400 BT 28 Aug 2009, lead-time: 78 h, (c) initial time: 2000 BT 28 Aug 2009, lead-time: 72 h, (d) initial time: 0200 BT 29 Aug 2009, lead-time: 66 h

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Fig. 6 Same as in Fig. 4, but in Xixian Basin

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图 7 同图 5，但为GRAPES-5 km模式预报6 h累加降水量

(a) 起始时间为2009年8月28日08:00, 预见期为54 h, (b) 起始时间为2009年8月28日14:00, 预见期为48 h, (c) 起始时间为2009年8月28日20:00，预见期为42 h, (d) 起始时间为2009年8月29日02:00，预见期为36 h

Fig. 7 Same as in Fig. 5, but for 6 h accumulated precipitation by GRAPES-5 km

(a) initial time: 0800 BT 28 Aug 2009, lead-time: 54 h, (b) initial time: 1400 BT 28 Aug 2009, lead-time: 48 h, (c) initial time: 2000 BT 28 Aug 2009, lead-time: 42 h, (d) initial time: 0200 BT 29 Aug 2009, lead-time: 36 h

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Table 1 Rain stations in the upper Wangjiaba Basin

子流域	雨量站
五沟营	西平
板桥
宿鸭湖	遂平、驻马店、确山
班台	上蔡、汝南、平舆、新蔡
薄山
潢川	光山、新县
息县	桐柏、信阳、罗山、息县
南湾	鸡公山
泼河
王家坝	淮滨、正阳

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Table 2 Statistics of the application for Xin'anjiang Model in the upper Wangjiaba Basin

预见期/h	输入场	洪量相对误差/%	洪峰相对误差/%	峰现时间误差/h	确定性系数
84	GRAPES-5 km模式	-39.50	-60.80	0	0.26
	GRAPES-15 km模式	-23.90	-32.20	0	0.75
	观测	81.06	87.20	-84	-1.30
78	GRAPES-5 km模式	3.39	-6.70	-6	0.94
	GRAPES-15 km模式	22.31	21.40	0	0.78
	观测	81.06	87.20	-84	-1.30
72	GRAPES-5 km模式	-0.26	-10.40	-6	0.95
	GRAPES-15 km模式	10.95	3.00	-6	0.93
	观测	73.02	84.00	-18	-0.92
66	GRAPES-5 km模式	-20.40	-41.50	-6	0.73
	GRAPES-15 km模式	-11.30	-28.20	-6	0.88
	观测	61.63	68.80	-24	-0.39
60	GRAPES-5 km模式	17.20	13.40	-6	0.88
	GRAPES-15 km模式	23.70	23.30	-6	0.78
	观测	60.30	67.60	-18	-0.30
54	GRAPES-5 km模式	26.80	27.40	0	0.72
	GRAPES-15 km模式	27.00	28.00	0	0.72
	观测	39.00	40.60	-12	0.46
48	GRAPES-5 km模式	26.80	27.40	0	0.72
	GRAPES-15 km模式	9.51	-2.50	6	0.94
	观测	9.77	-2.40	-6	0.94
42	GRAPES-5 km模式	8.00	-4.80	-6	0.95
	GRAPES-15 km模式	5.50	-4.80	-6	0.95
	观测	8.13	-4.80	-6	0.94

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Table 3 Statistics of the application for distributed Xin'anjiang Model in Xixian Basin

预见期/h	输入场	洪量相对误差/%	洪峰相对误差/%	峰现时间误差/h	确定性系数
54	GRAPES-5 km模式	9.31	4.85	0	0.94
	GRAPES-15 km模式	1.85	-11.89	0	0.96
	观测	-90.32	-95.41	-54	-0.59
48	GRAPES-5 km模式	9.31	4.85	0	0.94
	GRAPES-15 km模式	-54.55	-61.04	-6	0.38
	观测	-90.32	-95.41	-54	-0.59
42	GRAPES-5 km模式	9.31	4.85	0	0.94
	GRAPES-15 km模式	-62.62	-69.53	-12	0.16
	观测	-82.36	-91.49	-12	-0.41
36	GRAPES-5 km模式	-42.89	-45.05	-6	0.64
	GRAPES-15 km模式	-65.32	-73.24	-18	0.07
	观测	-72.67	-79.20	-24	-0.14
30	GRAPES-5 km模式	-42.89	-45.05	-6	0.64
	GRAPES-15 km模式	-71.38	-79.15	-24	-0.10
	观测	-71.39	-79.15	-24	-0.10
24	GRAPES-5 km模式	-42.89	-45.05	-6	0.64
	GRAPES-15 km模式	-39.07	-44.99	0	0.67
	观测	-39.09	-44.99	0	0.67
18	GRAPES-5 km模式	-59.35	-64.23	-12	0.26
	GRAPES-15 km模式	-5.99	-2.25	0	0.96
	观测	-6.02	-2.25	0	0.96
12	GRAPES-5 km模式	-59.35	-64.23	-12	0.26
	GRAPES-15 km模式	-3.86	-0.95	0	0.96
	观测	-5.21	-0.98	0	0.96

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