SPI-based Drought Variations in Xinjiang, China

Li Jianfeng; Zhang Qiang; Chen Xiaohong; Bai Yungang

Vol.23, NO.3, 2012

Article Contents

Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2012 > 23(3): 322-330

Li Jianfeng, Zhang Qiang, Chen Xiaohong, et al. SPI-based drought variations in Xinjiang, China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2012, 23(3): 322-330.

Citation:

Li Jianfeng, Zhang Qiang, Chen Xiaohong, et al. SPI-based drought variations in Xinjiang, China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2012, 23(3): 322-330.

Li Jianfeng, Zhang Qiang, Chen Xiaohong, et al. SPI-based drought variations in Xinjiang, China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2012, 23(3): 322-330.

Citation:

Li Jianfeng, Zhang Qiang, Chen Xiaohong, et al. SPI-based drought variations in Xinjiang, China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2012, 23(3): 322-330.

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SPI-based Drought Variations in Xinjiang, China

Li Jianfeng^{1,2,3
,
,},
Zhang Qiang^1,2,3,
Chen Xiaohong^1,2,3,
Bai Yungang⁴

1.
Department of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275
2.
Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in Southern China of Guangdong High Education Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275
3.
School of Geography and Planning, Guangdong Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Geo-simulation, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275
4.
Xinjiang Research Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower, Xinjiang 830049

Received Date: 2011-07-26
Rev Recd Date: 2012-03-06
Publish Date: 2012-06-30

Abstract

Abstract

Daily precipitation data at 53 stations during 1957—2009 in Xinjiang are analyzed based on Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) technique with the aim to investigate the spatial-temporal patterns of drought events. The Mann-Kendall trend test is used to detect the trends of monthly SPI values, drought intensity and drought duration. Pre-whitening technique is applied before the Mann-Kendall trend test to eliminate the autocorrelation within the precipitation series.According to the results, the frequency of mild drought in North Xinjiang is less than the theoretical frequency, while frequencies of moderate, severe and extreme droughts are higher than the theoretical ones. The statistical condition of drought events in South Xinjiang is to the opposite. Although the drought disaster in Xinjiang is abating in general, the trend varies in different areas. The decreasing of drought in North Xinjiang mainly happens in winter. However, in spring, summer and autumn, the decreasing is insignificant and has obvious influences on agriculture. As the agricultural water demand is increasing tremendously recently, this insignificant decreasing of drought hardly compensate the shortage of water demand. As a result, this change may be not beneficial to agriculture. The abating of drought in South Xinjiang mostly occurs in summer, while the drought in the south part of South Xinjiang is aggravating. The drought in East Xinjiang slightly aggravates. In North Xinjiang, both the intensity and duration of drought have decreasing trends. The intensity and duration of drought in South Xinjiang are both slightly increasing. In the middle part of East Xinjiang, the intensity and duration of drought are both significantly increasing. These results provide theoretical and practical merits for better understanding of variations of drought, monitoring of drought, and mitigating the losses of drought disaster.
- Xinjiang Area;
- drought variations;
- standardized precipitation index

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References(39)

Figures and Tables

Fig. 1 Location of precipition stations in Xinjiang

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Fig. 2 The comparison of SPI and historic drought damage area in Urumqi region during 1980—2009

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图 3 干旱发生概率空间分布

(a) 轻度干旱, (b) 中度干旱, (c) 重度干旱, (d) 极端干旱

Fig. 3 Spatial distribution of frequencies for drought categories

(a) mild drought, (b) moderate drought, (c) severe drought, (d) extreme drought

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Fig. 4 Monthly spatial distribution of SPI trends

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图 5 新疆干旱强度

(a) 及干旱历时 (b) M-K法统计量Z分布

Fig. 5 Spatial distirbutions of trends of drought serverity (a) and drought duration (b)

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Table 1 SPI categories

标准降水指标	干旱等级	发生概率
(-1.0, 0]	轻度干旱	0.341
(-1.5, -1.0]	中度干旱	0.092
(-2.0, -1.5]	重度干旱	0.044
(-∞, -2.0]	极端干旱	0.023

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