Zhao Cuiguang, Li Zechun. The regionalization and temporal characteristic of rainfall anomalies in North China during summer. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2012, 23(6): 641-649.
Citation: Zhao Cuiguang, Li Zechun. The regionalization and temporal characteristic of rainfall anomalies in North China during summer. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2012, 23(6): 641-649.

The Regionalization and Temporal Characteristic of Rainfall Anomalies in North China During Summer

  • Received Date: 2012-04-13
  • Rev Recd Date: 2012-09-27
  • Publish Date: 2012-12-31
  • North China is one of the three rainfall areas in eastern China. Precipitation over North China shows the characteristics of burstiness and locality. According to the statistics, 80%—90% precipitation occurs from June to August. Sometimes daily precipitation of a rainstorm can be up to 50% precipitation amount of that month. So it is important to forecast precipitation correctly especially to forecast larger magnitude precipitation correctly.Objective precipitation forecast is a difficult problem in NWP products interpretation at present in which models are always established station by station. Precipitation especially larger magnitude precipitation is small probability event for individual station, so establishing an effective forecast equation is difficult. Precipitation intensity, spatial and temporal distribution over North China has its own particularity. Due to the regionality characteristic, it is difficult to summarize in one weather mode. Objective partitioning can be used in establishment of precipitation forecast mode. Similar samples in the weather region are combined together. Regional forecast mode is more stable than single-station forecast mode, because the number of large-class precipitation samples is increased. In addition, sample data time selection is important for objective precipitation forecast modeling process.Based on the data of daily precipitation at 703 weather stations over North China from 1981 to 2007, which covers the domain of 32°—42°N, 110°—124°E, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics are analyzed with Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF) method. REOF analysis manifests that precipitation fields may be divided into 7 divisions. Mann-Kendall test and running t-test are used to analyze about the temporal change characteristics of different regions over North China during summer, in order to investigate the beginning and ending dates of rainy season specifically. The 7 divisions are different in precipitation beginning and ending dates. The initial date and final date of rainy season over North China are set up, and their dates are further identified, showing obvious regional features. Rainy season begins the earliest and ends the latest in the mountainous areas of the northeast of North China. It begins the latest in the central part of North China, and it ends the earliest in the southeast of North China. The concentration of precipitation time is different from the natural seasons. The long-term variation trend of precipitation anomalies in various regions and their stage are studied.
  • Fig. 1  Spatial structures of the first seven rotational loading vectors

    Fig. 2  Precipitation regional division over North China during summer

    Fig. 3  Common factor series of the first mode and their 5-day running average

    Fig. 4  Mann-Kendall test of common factor series from 1 Jun to 15 Jul of every mode(horizontal line denotes critical value of 0.05 level; UF and UB are forward and reverse sequence statistics)

    Fig. 5  Running t-test curves of Region Ⅴ and Region Ⅵ (horizontal line denotes critical value of 0.05 level)

    Fig. 6  The inter-annual variation of summer precipitation over North China(histogram denotes standardization value of precipitation; curve denotes 5-year running average)

    Table  1  Occurrence time and area of precipitation in each partition of North China

    分区 降水主要发生区域 降水主要发生时间
    河北中、南部平原区,河南北部、山东西北部 7月初至8月中旬
    河南大部,河南与山东苏皖四省交界处 7月初至8月中旬
    京津、河北东北部,辽宁西部,内蒙古东部偏南 6月底至8月中旬
    内蒙古中部,山西北部,河北西北部 7月初至8月上旬
    山西中南部 7月初至8月底,有间断
    山东大部 7月上旬至8月底
    苏皖北部 6月下旬至7月下旬
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    Table  2  Wet years and dry years in each partition of North China during summer

    分区 多雨年 少雨年
    Ⅰ区 1990年,1995年,1996年 1983年,1986年,1997年,2002年
    Ⅱ区 1982年,2000年,2003年,2005年 1985年,1986年,1997年,1999年
    Ⅲ区 1985年,1994年,1995年 1989年,1999年,2000年
    Ⅳ区 1988年,1994年,1995年,1996 1999年,2001年
    Ⅴ区 1981年,1982年,1988年,1996年,2003年 1986年,1991年,1997年
    Ⅵ区 1990年,1995年,1998年,2004年,2007年 1983年,1989年,1992年,1999年,2002年
    Ⅶ区 1991年,2003年,2005年,2007年 1985年,1988年,1994年
    注:定义降水量标准化值大于0.8为多雨年,小于-0.8为少雨年。
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    • Received : 2012-04-13
    • Accepted : 2012-09-27
    • Published : 2012-12-31

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