Simulation of the Precipitation and Its Variation During the 20th Century Using the BCC Climate Model (BCC_CSM1.0)

Dong Min; Wu Tongwen; Wang Zaizhi; Xin Xiaoge; Zhang Fang

Vol.24, NO.1, 2013

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Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2013 > 24(1): 1-11

Dong Min, Wu Tongwen, Wang Zaizhi, et al. Simulation of the precipitation and its variation during the 20th century using the BCC climate model (BCC_CSM1.0). J Appl Meteor Sci, 2013, 24(1): 1-11.

Citation:

Dong Min, Wu Tongwen, Wang Zaizhi, et al. Simulation of the precipitation and its variation during the 20th century using the BCC climate model (BCC_CSM1.0). J Appl Meteor Sci, 2013, 24(1): 1-11.

Dong Min, Wu Tongwen, Wang Zaizhi, et al. Simulation of the precipitation and its variation during the 20th century using the BCC climate model (BCC_CSM1.0). J Appl Meteor Sci, 2013, 24(1): 1-11.

Citation:

Dong Min, Wu Tongwen, Wang Zaizhi, et al. Simulation of the precipitation and its variation during the 20th century using the BCC climate model (BCC_CSM1.0). J Appl Meteor Sci, 2013, 24(1): 1-11.

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Simulation of the Precipitation and Its Variation During the 20th Century Using the BCC Climate Model (BCC_CSM1.0)

National Climate Center, Beijing 100081

Received Date: 2012-04-17
Rev Recd Date: 2012-10-19
Publish Date: 2013-02-28

Abstract

Abstract

The precipitation of the late 19th and 20th century (1870—2005) is simulated using Beijing Climate Center's Climate System Model (BCC_CSM1.0) under specified external forcing of solar constant, greenhouse gases, sulfate aerosols and volcanic ashes. The simulated precipitation and its variations are validated, showing that the BCC_CSM1.0 can pretty well simulate the basic climate state of global precipitation, the seasonal transition, the intra-seasonal oscillation of tropical precipitation and the inter-annual variation. The simulation shows there is an increasing trend in global land precipitation and in the extreme precipitation events during 1901—2005. The result consists with the CMAP and CRU analysis data which is based on observations in general, but there are still some discrepancies between the simulated and observed precipitation in the spatial distribution and temporal evolution. The simulation ability of the model needs improvement in some aspects. The simulated seasonal transition of the main rain belt in east part of China is faster than the observation. And the simulated precipitation over northeast part of Tibet Plateau and nearby region is heavier than observation especially in summer. The simulated intra-seasonal oscillation of the tropical precipitation is weaker than the observation. The simulated inter-annual variability is larger than the observation, which mainly occurs in the tropical region where the precipitation is large. The mean precipitation of global land, Eurasia, Asia, east part of China, the south part of the Yangtze River and North China during 1901—2005 from BCC_CSM1.0 is consistent with corresponding CRU data. In most of the above regions the simulated precipitation is lower than the observation. The simulated precipitation trend of global land, east part of China, the south part of the Yangtze and North China from BCC_CSM1.0 is consistent with that from CRU data. The simulated precipitation of global land for 1901—2005 has obvious increasing trend which is more significant than that from CRU data. But for the other regions mentioned, the precipitation trend simulation result is unsatisfactory and needs further improvement.
- National Climate Center;
- climate model;
- precipitation and its variability

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References(17)

Figures and Tables

Fig. 1 The precipitations from BCC_CSM1.0 and CMAP (1979—2005) with their difference in January and July (unit: mm·d^-1)

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Fig. 2 Averaged precipitation from 1979 to 2005(unit: mm·d^-1)

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Fig. 3 The precipitation over China for May—August during 1979—2005(unit: mm·d^-1)

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Fig. 4 The space-time spectrum of precipitation in the tropics (10°S~10°N)(unit: 10^-3 mm·d^-1)

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Fig. 5 The standard deviations of BCC_CSM1.0 simulated precipitation and CMAP data with their difference (unit: mm·d^-1)

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Fig. 6 Annual precipitation curves

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Table 1 The comparison of BCC_CSM1.0 simulated precipitation to CMAP data for each month

月份	全球			热带地区
月份	均方根误差 /(mm·d^-1)	平均值 /(mm·d^-1)	相对误差	均方根误差 /(mm·d^-1)	平均值 /(mm·d^-1)	相对误差
1	1.71	2.62	0.65	2.28	3.37	0.68
2	1.89	2.62	0.72	2.55	3.34	0.76
3	1.85	2.61	0.71	2.48	3.29	0.75
4	1.85	2.65	0.70	2.46	3.34	0.74
5	1.89	2.69	0.70	2.53	3.37	0.75
6	1.69	2.74	0.61	2.21	3.34	0.66
7	1.74	2.78	0.63	2.31	3.40	0.68
8	1.69	2.72	0.62	2.24	3.38	0.66
9	1.55	2.66	0.58	2.06	3.28	0.63
10	1.54	2.62	0.59	2.03	3.26	0.62
11	1.52	2.65	0.57	2.01	3.33	0.60
12	1.50	2.65	0.57	1.98	3.36	0.59

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Table 2 The standard deviations of BCC_CSM1.0 simulated precipitation and CMAP data with their differences (unit: mm·d^-1)

月份	全球	30°S~30°N
1	0.797	1.067
2	0.908	1.228
3	0.908	1.229
4	0.888	1.190
5	0.870	1.176
6	0.852	1.143
7	0.840	1.117
8	0.742	0.988
9	0.799	1.064
10	0.811	1.084
11	0.758	1.017
12	0.765	1.016

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Table 3 The long term trends of precipitation

范围	数据 (年份)	平均降水强度 /(mm·d^-1)	M-K法变化趋势 /(mm/10 a)	Z_s	线性回归变化趋势 /(mm/10 a)	R
全球陆地	BCC_CSM1.0(1870—2005)	1.83	0.80	3.57	0.69	0.276
	BCC_CSM1.0(1901—2005)	1.83	1.18	3.58	1.12	0.340
	CRU (1901—2005)	2.22	1.10	1.40	1.01	0.199
欧亚	BCC_CSM1.0(1870—2005)	1.54	0.80	3.12	0.73	0.233
	BCC_CSM1.0(1901—2005)	1.55	0.79	1.95	0.77	0.189
	CRU (1901—2005)	1.69	-0.27	-0.40	0.09	0.020
亚洲	BCC_CSM1.0(1870—2005)	1.75	1.31	3.08	1.30	0.272
	BCC_CSM1.0(1901—2005)	1.76	1.57	2.40	1.46	0.232
	CRU (1901—2005)	2.01	0.12	0.12	0.21	0.031
中国大陆	BCC_CSM1.0(1870—2005)	2.02	1.50	2.31	1.46	0.196
	BCC_CSM1.0(1901—2005)	2.03	1.08	1.09	1.15	0.155
	CRU (1901—2005)	2.12	-0.32	-0.26	-0.08	-0.009
中国东部	BCC_CSM1.0(1870—2005)	2.07	0.61	0.58	0.73	0.063
	BCC_CSM1.0(1901—2005)	2.07	0.89	0.58	1.68	0.108
	CRU (1901—2005)	2.38	0.49	0.35	1.08	0.082
中国江南	BCC_CSM1.0(1870—2005)	3.20	2.11	0.51	-0.02	-0.001
	BCC_CSM1.0(1901—2005)	3.18	3.61	0.59	4.85	0.094
	CRU (1901—2005)	3.70	1.61	0.27	2.64	0.058
中国华北	BCC_CSM1.0(1870—2005)	1.91	3.27	1.38	2.62	0.099
	BCC_CSM1.0(1901—2005)	1.93	0.38	0.09	0.36	0.011
	CRU (1901—2005)	1.53	2.81	0.97	2.29	0.094

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