The Low Frequency Oscillation and Circulation Characteristics of Cold Rainy Weather in Guangdong

Ji Zhongping; Gao Xiaorong; Gu Dejun; Wu Xiulan; Shu Fengmin

Vol.24, NO.1, 2013

Article Contents

Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2013 > 24(1): 32-42

Ji Zhongping, Gao Xiaorong, Gu Dejun, et al. The low frequency oscillation and circulation characteristics of cold rainy weather in Guangdong. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2013, 24(1): 32-42.

Citation:

Ji Zhongping, Gao Xiaorong, Gu Dejun, et al. The low frequency oscillation and circulation characteristics of cold rainy weather in Guangdong. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2013, 24(1): 32-42.

Ji Zhongping, Gao Xiaorong, Gu Dejun, et al. The low frequency oscillation and circulation characteristics of cold rainy weather in Guangdong. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2013, 24(1): 32-42.

Citation:

Ji Zhongping, Gao Xiaorong, Gu Dejun, et al. The low frequency oscillation and circulation characteristics of cold rainy weather in Guangdong. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2013, 24(1): 32-42.

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The Low Frequency Oscillation and Circulation Characteristics of Cold Rainy Weather in Guangdong

1.
Guangzhou Central Weather Observatory, Guangzhou 510080
2.
Tongzhou Meteorological Bureau of Beijing, Beijing 101100
3.
Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, CMA, Guangzhou 510080

Received Date: 2012-08-13
Rev Recd Date: 2013-11-15
Publish Date: 2013-02-28

Abstract

Abstract

In order to predict cold rainy weather on medium-term and extended range during February—March in Guangdong, the relationship between annual prospect of cold rainy weather during 1953—2011 in Guangdong and that in Guangzhou, and the relationship between low-frequency oscillation of Guangzhou daily temperature and cold rainy weather are analyzed from December to next April with wavelet transform and correlation analysis. The result shows that the similar ratio between the annual prospect of Guangzhou cold rainy weather and that of Guangdong is 94.9%(56/59). In mild year of cold rainy weather, Guangzhou daily temperature exhibits quasi-periodic oscillations of 8.0—18.3 days, 10.1—28.4 days and 30—89.6 days for middle and severe year, respectively.The long cold rainy weather during February—March has mainly close relationship with the intraseasonal oscillation with period more than 18 days, especially with the oscillation intensity more than 45 days. The weather concept model of long cold rainy weather with intraseasonal oscillation of 30—64 days is set up based on composite analysis of typical cases.They reflect the evolution characteristics of atmospheric circulation of warmer—cooling—starting—maintenance—ending period of long cold rainy weather. During warmer—cooling—starting period, the blocking high in Ural Maintain and west of Baikal Lake at 500 hPa geopotential height field is maintained, the South China is controlled by straight and fluctuant westerly from weak ridge at warmer period and obvious negative anomalies of height field, the Mongolian High gradually enhances and moves southward in ground, and the South China is controlled by enormous cold pressure ridge from weak trough.The stronger cold air moves southwards and weak cold air continuously supplements. All of the above lead to strong temperature drop and the start of cold rainy weather. When the blocking high in Ural Mountain—west of Baikal Lake is weakened, an obvious ridge maintains, the South China is still controlled by straight and fluctuant westerly, the weak cold air is continuously supplement, the cold rainy weather maintained. When Ural Mountain—north of Baikal Lake controls by weak trough, the South China is controlled by weak ridges at 500 hPa and surface which moving eastwards, the cold rainy weather ends. So the blocking high in Ural Mountain—west of Baikal Lake can be regarded as 500 hPa precursor of cold rainy weather in Guangdong. When this precursor stably maintains, the straight and fluctuation westerly influences the South China, Mongolian High gradually intensifies and move southwards at surface, the long cold rainy weather in Guangdong can be predicted.
- cold rainy weather;
- low frequency oscillation;
- circulation characteristics

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References(29)

Figures and Tables

图 1 1953—2011年2—3月广州最长一段低温阴雨日数的逐年变化 (a) 及与12月—次年4月广州逐日气温不同频率的小波功率谱的相关分布 (b)

(图 1a中实横线代表历年平均值为8.3 d, 虚线为高斯九点平滑滤波；图 1b中粗、细断线分别表示0.10和0.05的显著性水平)

Fig. 1 The number of the longest cold rainy weather day from February to March during1953—2011(a) and its correlation with wavelet power spectrum of Guangzhou daily temperature at different frequency from December to the next April (b)

( the horizontal solid line denotes 8.3 d, the mean number of the longest cold rainy weather day from February to March during 1953—2011, and dashed line denotes smoothed filtered by 9-point Gaussian smoothing in Fig. 1a; the thin and thick long-dashed lines denote the level of 0.10 and 0.05, respectively in Fig. 1b)

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Fig. 2 The composition field (thick line) and anomalies (thin line) of 500 hPa height field (unit: dagpm) for phase 2—9 associated with intraseasonal oscillation of long cold rainy weather(the shaded denotes the anomaly is greater than 0 )

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Fig. 3 The composition of 850 hPa wind field for phase 2—9 associated with intraseasonal oscillation of long cold rainy weather

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Fig. 4 The composition of sea level presure field (unit: hPa) for phase 2—9 associated with intraseasonal oscillation of long cold rainy weather

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Table 1 The regulation of cold rainy weather intensity for different regions of Guangdong

位置	强度	2月下旬 (北部) 或2月 (中南部) 低温阴雨日数/d	3月低温阴雨日数/d	2—3月最长一段低温阴雨日数/d
北部 (韶关)	重	≥7.0	≥13.0	≥13.0
	中	3.0~6.9	9.0~12.9	6.5~12.9
	轻	< 3.0	< 9.0	< 6.5
中部 (广州)	重	≥14.0	≥7.0	≥ 11.0
	中	8.1~13.9	3.1~6.9	6.0~10.9
	轻	≤8.0	≤3.0	< 6.0
南部 (阳江)	重	≥12.0	≥ 4.7	≥ 9.0
	中	7.1~11.9	1.7~4.6	5.0~8.9
	轻	≤7.0	≤1.7	< 5.0

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Table 2 The annual intensity of Guangzhou cold rainy weather and the main oscillation periods from December to the next April during 1953—2011

年份	年景	主要周期/d
1953	中	13.8^*
1954	中	13.1^*, 47.2
1955	轻	10.3^*, 25.0
1956	重	18.7^*, 47.2
1957	重	8.6^*, 25.5
1958	中	10.1^*, 81.5
1959	中	48.1
1960	轻	20.4
1961	轻	9.7^*
1962	轻	13.2^*
1963	轻	13.5^*
1964	重	8.8^*, 26.1
1965	中	10.6^*, 49.0
1966	轻	9.4^*
1967	中	10.6^*, 39.2
1968	重	8.4^*, 63.2
1969	重	20.4^*
1970	中	6.9^*, 49.0
1971	中	10.4^*, 30.9
1972	中	16.7^*
1973	轻	8.8^*
1974	重	16.7^*
1975	轻	9.9^*, 24.4
1976	中	16.3^*
1977	中	21.9^*
1978	中	12.9^*
1979	中	13.8^*
1980	中	11.2, 37.2
1981	轻	8.0^*, 52.8
1982	重	13.8^*
1983	重	10.4^*
1984	重	21.4
1985	重	16.3^*, 62.2
1986	中	21.4
1987	轻	8.6^*
1988	重	13.8^*
1989	中	13.8^*, 54.8
1990	中	32.2
1991	轻	18.3^*
1992	重	15.9^*
1993	中	11.2^*, 26.6
1994	中	17.0^*, 28.4
1995	中	9.2^, 5.9^
1996	中	10.4^*
1997	重	16.3^*
1998	中	11.4^*, 45.0
1999	轻	8.2^*, 28.4
2000	中	27.8
2001	轻	9.9^*
2002	轻	37.2
2003	轻	13.8^*
2004	轻	8.6^*, 51.8
2005	中	11.4^*, 51.8
2006	轻	11.7^*
2007	轻	15.5^*
2008	重	14.5^*, 89.6
2009	轻	19.1
2010	中	20.4^*
2011	中	8.8^*, 20.4
注：*达到0.05显著性水平。

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Table 3 The occurrence time, number of days and corresponding period for the longest cold rainy weather more than 11 days since 1953

序号	年份	时段	日数/d	对应周期/d
1	1956	02-17—03-04	14.9	60^*
2	1957	02-05—28	21.9	28^*
3	1959	02-18—03-01	11.1	23^*
4	1964	02-17—28	11.0	24^*
5	1968	02-01—27	25.1	64^*
6	1969	02-20—03-14	16.4	40^*
7	1974	02-01—13	13.0	30^*
8	1980	02-01—12	12.0	28^*
9	1982	02-06—16	11.0	22^*
10	1984	02-01—19	17.7	48^*
11	1989	02-01—12	11.1	60^*
12	1992	02-05—25	15.4	32^*
13	1996	02-18—29	11.6	18^*
14	1997	02-03—19	17.0	28^*
15	2008	02-01—20	16.7	64^*
注：*表示达到0.05显著性水平。

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