Causes and Dynamic-statistical Forecast of the Summer Rainfall Anomaly over China in 2011

Zhao Junhu; Yang Jie; Feng Guolin; Zhang Shixuan

Vol.24, NO.1, 2013

Article Contents

Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2013 > 24(1): 43-54

Zhao Junhu, Yang Jie, Feng Guolin, et al. Causes and dynamic-statistical forecast of the summer rainfall anomaly over China in 2011. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2013, 24(1): 43-54.

Citation:

Zhao Junhu, Yang Jie, Feng Guolin, et al. Causes and dynamic-statistical forecast of the summer rainfall anomaly over China in 2011. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2013, 24(1): 43-54.

Zhao Junhu, Yang Jie, Feng Guolin, et al. Causes and dynamic-statistical forecast of the summer rainfall anomaly over China in 2011. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2013, 24(1): 43-54.

Citation:

Zhao Junhu, Yang Jie, Feng Guolin, et al. Causes and dynamic-statistical forecast of the summer rainfall anomaly over China in 2011. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2013, 24(1): 43-54.

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Causes and Dynamic-statistical Forecast of the Summer Rainfall Anomaly over China in 2011

1.
College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000
2.
National Climate Center, Beijing 100081

Received Date: 2012-03-29
Rev Recd Date: 2012-10-16
Publish Date: 2013-02-28

Abstract

Abstract

The large-scale rainfall over China in summer of 2011 is reviewed, the prediction results of dynamic-statistical objective quantitative (DSOQ) and dynamic-statistical diagnostic (DSD) methods are evaluated. Compared to the DSOQ, the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) and predictive score (PS) of which are 0.12 and 70, the DSD method has obvious advantage in predicting skill by increasing the ACC and PS to 0.25 and 75, respectively. Taking the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze (MLRY) as an experiment region, the differences in predictive factors of these two methods are compared and the advantages of DSD method are analyzed. The probable causes of summer rainfall anomaly distribution in 2011 and the relevant circulation anomaly characteristics are also discussed, such as the blocking-high (BH) anomaly in middle-high latitudes and the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) anomaly in low latitudes. The results indicate that the abundant rainfall in June over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze and the uneven distribution of June-July-August (JJA) rainfall are the direct causes for the southerly rainbelt in the summer of 2011. And this is related to the BH activities, the intra-seasonal oscillations (ISO) of WPSH and the monthly different configurations between them. In June, the atmospheric circulations reveal two trough areas and one ridge area at the middle-high latitudes. The intensity and western boundary of the WPSH are normal, while the latitude of the ridge line is northerly. The southward cold air behind the trough converges with the northward warm wet airflow over MLRY, which causes substantial precipitation in this area. Compared with June, the atmospheric circulations in middle-high latitudes change into the two ridge areas and one trough area in July, the WPSH becomes weaker and its western boundary moves eastward, and the ridge line is more northward. These situations lead to stronger cold air than the warm wet airflow, resulting in drought of the whole areas. In August, the strength of the trough and ridge weaken relative comparing to July, which makes the convergence of the southward cold air and the northward warm wet airflow over East China. The situations above lead to a large amount of precipitation in East China. Besides, the variation of the BH and the ISO of WPSH is affected by the interactions among the East Asian circulation systems (EACS), and the external forcing of sea surface temperature (SST) and snow cover. The interactions and configurations among EACS are key effective factors of summer climate. Thus, by predicting the seasonal and monthly key circulation factors (e.g., BH and WPSH, etc.) to revise the summer precipitation prediction would be a feasible way for the improvements of the dynamic-statistical prediction skill.
- summer rainfall;
- dynamic-statistical objective quantitative (DSOQ);
- dynamic-statistical diagnostic (DSD);
- circulation anomalies

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References(50)

Figures and Tables

Fig. 1 Rainfall anomaly percentage over China in summer of 2011

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图 2 2011年我国夏季降水距平百分率预测

(a) 动力统计客观定量化预测, (b) 动力统计-诊断预测

Fig. 2 Rainfall anomaly percentage over China in summer of 2011 predicted by dynamic-statistical objective quantitative (DSOQ) model (a) and dynamic-statistical diagnostic (DSD) model (b)

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图 3 2011年北半球500 hPa高度场（阴影：高度距平; 等值线:位势高度; 蓝色实线为气候态; 单位：gpm ）和850 hPa风场的距平场 (矢量) (a) 夏季, (b)6月, (c)7月, (d)8月

Fig. 3 The distribution of 500 hPa geopotential height (shaded: anomaly; contour: geopotential height; blue solid line: the climate state; unit:gpm)and 850 hPa wind anomalies (vector) over North Hemisphere in 2011

(a) summer, (b) June, (c) July, (d) August

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图 4 2011年海表温度距平分布图

(a) 前冬, (b) 春季, (c) 夏季

Fig. 4 The distribution of SST anomaly in 2011

(a) previous winter, (b) spring, (c) summer

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Fig. 5 Time-longitude section of daily 500 hPa geopotential height along 50°N in summer of 2011

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图 6 2011年夏季5°~25°N平均的垂直距平环流

(阴影：垂直速度, 单位：10-2 Pa/s；纬向风单位：m/s；矢量：合成风)(a)6月，(b)7月，(c)8月

Fig. 6 Vertical circulation anomalies averaged over 5°—25°N in Jun (a), Jul (b), Aug (c) of 2011

(shaded area: vetical velocity, unit: 10-2 Pa/s; unit of zonal wind: m/s; vectors: composite winds)

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图 7 2011年夏季125°~150°E平均的的垂直距平环流 (a)6月，(b)7月，(c)8月

(阴影：垂直速度，单位：10-2 Pa/s；经向风单位：m/s；矢量：合成风)(a)6月，(b)7月，(c)8月

Fig. 7 Vertical circulation anomalies averaged over 125°—150°E in Jun (a), Jul (b), Aug (c) of 2011

(shade areas: vertical velocity, unit: 10-2Pa/s; unit of meridional wind: m/s; vectors: composite winds)

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图 8 2011年和气候态的夏季200 hPa高度场 (长虚线，单位：dagpm)、急流 (阴影：纬向风速u≥30 m/s) 和500 hPa高度场 (实线，单位：dagpm)

Fig. 8 200 hPa geopotential height (long broken line, unit: dagpm), upper westerly jet (shaded area, zonal wind speed greater than 30 m/s) and 500 hPa geopotential height (solid line, unit: dagpm) in 2011 and climate state

(a) Jun 2011, (b) climate state of Jun, (c) Jul 2011, (d) climate state of Jul, (e) Aug 2011, (f) climate state of Aug

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Fig. 9 The possible mechanism of rainfall anomaly over China in 2011

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Table 1 The predictive factors for the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze in DSOQ

月份	因子	相关系数	距平相关系数
8	加勒比海SST指数^*	0.49	0.34
1	热带北大西洋SST指数^*	0.37	0.22
10	西半球暖池指数^*	0.41	0.22
7	加勒比海SST指数^*	0.57	0.21
12	热带北大西洋指数^*	0.31	0.18
4	东太平洋副热带高压强度指数^**	0.31	0.17
2	大西洋副热带高压脊线指数^**	0.21	0.10
6	北非大西洋北美副热带高压面积指数^**	0.18	0.01
5	登陆台风指数^**	-0.03	0.05
12	飓风活动指数^**	-0.49	0.06
注：3—12月因子为上一年因子，1—2月因子为当年因子。*表示因子来自NOAA的40项月气候指数；表示因子来自国家气候中心气候系统诊断预测室提供的74项月环流特征量资料。下同。

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Table 2 The predictive factors for the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze in DSD

月份	因子	COR	ACC
12	西太平洋副热带高压面积指数^**	0.32	0.32
1	热带北大西洋SST指数^*	0.37	0.22
10	西半球暖池指数^*	0.41	0.22
12	冷空气指数^**	-0.43	0.26
12	大西洋几十年涛动指数^*	0.43	0.19
1	El Niño演变指数^*	0.35	0.16
2	亚洲区极涡面积指数^**	-0.39	0.16
10	太平洋10年涛动 (PDO) 指数^*	-0.37	0.13
9	青藏高原高度场指数^**	0.42	0.16
8	印缅槽指数^**	0.42	0.14

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Table 3 Seasonal and monthly indices of WPSH in summer of 2011

副高指数	6月		7月		8月		夏季
副高指数	距平	标准差	距平	标准差	距平	标准差	距平	标准差
强度指数	12	21	-31^Δ	24	11	26	-4	21
脊线指数	2^Δ	2	2^Δ	2	4^Δ	4	3^Δ	2
西伸脊点指数	-3	12	16^Δ	15	-2	16	3	11
注：Δ表示达到1倍标准差。

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