The Application of the Local Analysis and Prediction System to GRAPES

Liu Chunwen; Lin Yonghui; Cao Yancha

Vol.24, NO.2, 2013

Article Contents

Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2013 > 24(2): 162-170

Liu Chunwen, Lin Yonghui, Cao Yancha. The application of the local analysis and prediction system to GRAPES. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2013, 24(2): 162-170.

Citation:

Liu Chunwen, Lin Yonghui, Cao Yancha. The application of the local analysis and prediction system to GRAPES. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2013, 24(2): 162-170.

Liu Chunwen, Lin Yonghui, Cao Yancha. The application of the local analysis and prediction system to GRAPES. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2013, 24(2): 162-170.

Citation:

Liu Chunwen, Lin Yonghui, Cao Yancha. The application of the local analysis and prediction system to GRAPES. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2013, 24(2): 162-170.

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The Application of the Local Analysis and Prediction System to GRAPES

Liu Chunwen^1,2,
Lin Yonghui^{2
,
,},
Cao Yancha^2,3

1.
Weather Modification Center of Yunnan Province, Kunming 650034
2.
State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081
3.
National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081

Received Date: 2012-08-14
Rev Recd Date: 2012-12-31
Publish Date: 2013-04-30

Abstract

Abstract

The local analysis and prediction system (LAPS) is widely applied, providing fast comprehensive analysis products for forecasters and assimilating various observational information. GRAPES_Meso is a new generation of global/regional assimilation and prediction system, developed by Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, and has been used in operation and research. However, LAPS itself does not provide any interface system with GRAPES_Meso.Based on the investigation of LAPS and GRAPES_Meso, the output data of LAPS are used as the initial condition of GRAPES_Meso model (GRAPES-LAPS), and compared with the original initial scheme of GRAPES_Meso model (GRAPES-3DVAR). Twenty-eight rainfall events in Southern China from 2008 to 2010 are simulated with the two initial schemes, which both assimilate data including 14 Doppler radar observations, 30 radiosonde observations and about 530 surface observations.The results show that the initial fields obtained by the GRAPES-LAPS scheme accurately represent the moisture fields and meso-scale environmental circulations. The simulated moisture and convergence at low level by the GRAPES-LAPS scheme are stronger than the results of the GRAPES-3DVAR scheme, and these initial fields are beneficial to improve the GRAPES_Meso model simulation. The mean square error (MSE) and threshold scores (TS) of two schemes of the twenty-eight rainfall events are equivalent, but ten rainstorm events are accurately simulated by using GRAPES-LAPS scheme and only five rainstorm events are accurately simulated by GRAPES-3DVAR scheme. The TS scores of moderate rain, heavy rain and rainstorm by the GRAPES-LAPS scheme are a little better than those of the GRAPES-3DVAR scheme, indicating that the GRAPES-LAPS scheme is more suitable to forecast strong rainfall events than the GRAPES-3DVAR scheme.
- LAPS;
- GRAPES;
- heavy storm forecast;
- TS score

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References(28)

Figures and Tables

Fig. 1 The distribution of operational radar stations, automatic weather stations and radio sounding stations in the zone of GRAPES and LAPS model simulation

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图 2 2009年7月14日08：00—15日08：00的24 h降水分布

(a) LAPS方案，(b)3DVAR方案，(c) 实况

Fig. 2 24-hour accumulated rainfall from 0800 BT 14 July 2009 to 0800 BT 15 July 2009

(a) LAPS scheme, (b)3DVAR scheme, (c) observation

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Fig. 3 The specific humidity of 850 hPa and 750 hPa at 0800 BT 14 July 2009 from LAPS and 3DVAR schemes

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Fig. 4 Divergence of 700 hPa and vertical distribution of divergence from 118°E to 119°E at 0800 BT 14 July 2009 from LAPS and 3DVAR schemes

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Fig. 5 Vorticity of 700 hPa and vertical distribution of vorticity from 118°E to 119°E at 0800 BT 14 July 2009 from LAPS and 3DVAR schemes

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Fig. 6 The root-mean-square errors of 24-hour 850 hPa humidity (a) and 500 hPa height (b) of LAPS and 3DVAR schemes

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Fig. 7 TS scores of 24-hour accumulated rainfall forecast of LAPS and 3DVAR schemes

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Fig. 8 TS scores of 24-hour rainstorm forecast of LAPS and 3DVAR schemes

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Table 1 Information of 28 cases

序号	2008年	2009年	2010年
1	05-17	05-19	05-01
2	05-18	05-20	05-02
3	05-19	05-21	05-03
4		07-07	05-04
5		07-08	05-05
6		07-09	05-6
7		07-10	05-11
8		07-11	05-12
9		07-12	05-14
10		07-13	05-18
11		07-14	05-19
12		07-15	05-20
13			05-21

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References

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