Inter-decadal Variability of the Relationship Between Winter Temperature in China and Its Impact Factors

Li Weijing; Li Yi; Chen Lijuan; Zhao Zhenguo

Vol.24, NO.4, 2013

Article Contents

Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2013 > 24(4): 385-396

Li Weijing, Li Yi, Chen Lijuan, et al. Inter-decadal variability of the relationship between winter temperature in China and its impact factors. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2013, 24(4): 385-396.

Citation:

Li Weijing, Li Yi, Chen Lijuan, et al. Inter-decadal variability of the relationship between winter temperature in China and its impact factors. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2013, 24(4): 385-396.

Li Weijing, Li Yi, Chen Lijuan, et al. Inter-decadal variability of the relationship between winter temperature in China and its impact factors. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2013, 24(4): 385-396.

Citation:

Li Weijing, Li Yi, Chen Lijuan, et al. Inter-decadal variability of the relationship between winter temperature in China and its impact factors. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2013, 24(4): 385-396.

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Inter-decadal Variability of the Relationship Between Winter Temperature in China and Its Impact Factors

1.
Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, CMA, Beijing 100081
2.
Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081

Received Date: 2013-03-20
Rev Recd Date: 2013-05-27
Publish Date: 2013-08-31

Abstract

Abstract

The inter-decadal variation characteristics of winter temperature in China and its key impact factors are analyzed by using monthly temperature data of 160 stations in China, NCEP/NACR reanalysis data, extended reconstructed sea surface temperatures data, and Arctic sea ice extent data from 1951 to 2012, focusing on the inter-decadal changes of the relationship between key influencing factors and winter temperature in China. Results show that the winter temperature in China before 1985 is in a cold period, and then a warm period follows. A significant inter-decadal variability has occurred for winter temperature anomalies. The scope and intensity of warming tendency has weakened significantly from 2004 to 2011.The main diagnostic analysis conclusions are summarized as follows. The majority of impact factors of winter temperature anomalies in China shows significant inter-decadal shift from 1970s to 1980s, most of which changes ahead of that of winter temperatures in China, such as Arctic Oscillation (AO), the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM), Western Pacific subtropical high (WPSN), Arctic sea ice cover in September, and Niño3 SST index. But the inter-decadal variability of Siberian High (SH) and the basin-wide SSTA variation in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) has the same pace with that of the winter temperature. The inter-decadal variability of relationship between winter temperature and its impact factors have changed on temporal and spatial scales. On temporal scale, the relationship between the winter temperature and IOBW index has weakened significantly from cold to warm period. But the influences of EAWM index, SH index and the WPSH area index on winter temperature have strengthened. On spatial scales, distributions of correlations between winter temperatures and affecting factors have changed from cold to warm period. The high correlation coefficient regions between EAWM and winter temperature have enlarged significantly. The correlation coefficient between AO index and winter temperature is negative in central-southern China in warm period. The inter-decadal variability of relationship between the impact factors has changed, the relationship between EAWM index and tropical SSTA in winter are significantly weakened from cold to warm period.Based on the basic facts of inter-decadal variations, a multi-factor regression prediction model of winter temperature can be established respectively in cold and warm period. This regression prediction model can reflect inter-decadal characteristics of relationship between the winter temperature and its impact factors. Such strategy may keep the stability and effectiveness of the prediction skill for winter temperature in China.
- winter temperature;
- impact factors;
- East Asian winter monsoon;
- inter-decadal variability

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References(31)

Figures and Tables

图 1 1951—2011年全国冬季月平均气温距平演变

(断线为气温距平滑动t统计量，横点线为滑动t检验量0.01显著性水平临界值)

Fig. 1 Anomalies of the winter temperature in China from 1951 to 2011

(dashed line: moving t-test statistic value; straight dotted line: 0.01 significant level critical value)

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Fig. 2 Anomalies of the temperature in December (a), January (b) and February (c) over China

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Fig. 3 Average anomalies of geo-potential height at 500 hPa during cold episodes (a) and warm episodes (b) in winter

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Fig. 4 Latitude-time section of 60°—70°E average anomalies at 500 hPa in winter from 1951 to 2011 (unit:dagpm)

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Fig. 5 Cumulative anomalies of the key affecting factors of winter temperature in China

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图 6 我国冬季气温与关键影响因子相关分布

(阴影表示达到0.05显著性水平区域)

Fig. 6 The correlation coefficients between winter temperature and key affecting factors

(shaded areas denote passing the test of 0.05 level)

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图 7 冷期 (a) 和暖期 (b) 冬季风指数与同期海温相关图

(阴影区相关系数达到0.05显著性水平)

Fig. 7 The correlation coefficients between winter monsoon index and simultaneous SSTs in cold episodes (a) and warm episodes (b)

(shaded areas denote passing the test of 0.05 level)

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Fig. 8 The hindcast winter temperature by Test 1， Test 2, Test 3 and the time series of standardized observed temperature

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Table 1 The correlation coefficients of winter temperature to external forcing and circulation factors

因子	时间	秋季	冬季
黑潮海温	全时段	0.10	0.36^*
	冷期	0.20	0.53^*
	暖期	0.04	0.12
IOBW	全时段	0.10	0.28^*
	冷期	0.15	0.33^*
	暖期	0.20	0.18
北极海冰	全时段	0.33^*(9月)	0.20
	冷期	0.03(9月)	0.06
	暖期	0.61^*(9月)	0.38^*
冬季风	全时段	-0.30^*	-0.58^*
	冷期	-0.15	-0.52^*
	暖期	0.08	-0.67^*
西伯利亚高压	全时段	-0.07	-0.59^*
	冷期	-0.24	-0.50^*
	暖期	0.20	-0.76^*
副高面积	全时段	0.21	0.34^*
	冷期	0.29	0.31^*
	暖期	0.10	0.40^*
高原高度场	全时段	0.15	0.49^*
	冷期	0.19	0.55^*
	暖期	0.07	0.37
AO	全时段	-0.04	0.19
	冷期	-0.03	0.16
	暖期	-0.07	0.19
注：*表示相关系数达到0.05显著性水平。

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