Staged Meteorological Drought Index Based on Boltzmann Function

Hou Wei; Yang Jie; Zhao Junhu

Vol.24, NO.6, 2013

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Hou Wei, Yang Jie, Zhao Junhu. Staged meteorological drought index based on boltzmann function. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2013, 24(6): 695-703.

Citation:

Hou Wei, Yang Jie, Zhao Junhu. Staged meteorological drought index based on boltzmann function. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2013, 24(6): 695-703.

Hou Wei, Yang Jie, Zhao Junhu. Staged meteorological drought index based on boltzmann function. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2013, 24(6): 695-703.

Citation:

Hou Wei, Yang Jie, Zhao Junhu. Staged meteorological drought index based on boltzmann function. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2013, 24(6): 695-703.

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Staged Meteorological Drought Index Based on Boltzmann Function

Hou Wei^{1
,
,},
Yang Jie²,
Zhao Junhu^1,2

1.
National Climate Center, Beijing 100081
2.
College of Atmospheric and Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000

Received Date: 2012-12-11
Rev Recd Date: 2013-08-22
Publish Date: 2013-12-31

Abstract

Abstract

In the practical research and business, it's often needed to evaluate the overall meteorological drought degree of a site within a certain period of time. Based on the daily meteorological drought index, the accumulative probability distribution of the number of days for different drought and flood degrees at a time scale can be obtained, and through solving the accumulative probability distribution by Boltzmann function, the standardized staged meteorological drought intensity index (I_SD) and staged meteorological drought discrepancy index (I_SDD) is designed.I_SD and I_SDD of Kunming Station at the monthly scale are constructed as an example. Through comparing and analyzing the precipitation anomaly percentage, I_SD, standardized precipitation index (I_SP) and I_SDD in the different periods, and combined with the day by day evolution of the rainfall and multi-scale standardized precipitation index (I_MSP), the effectiveness of I_SD and I_SDD index are verified. A basic principle is that the rainfall at a certain moment could affect the drought and flood states after that moment, but has no impact on the drought and flood states before.I_SD makes full use of daily meteorological drought index which contains prophase precipitation information to synthesize drought and flood characteristics of a certain period of time. The bigger I_SD is, the more serious the drought is, and vice versa. The larger (smaller) I_SDD means the drought or the flood is more concentrated (scattered). Moreover, these two indices can be calculated in different time scales for any site, and in the practical application, the other meteorological drought index also can be used by a forementioned method to build I_SD and I_SDD. A theoretical algorithm to get I_SD and I_SDD on any time scale is proposed, but the most applicable time scale should be 10 days, month and season, and on the inter-annual and inter-decadal scale, the proposed approach and other methods such as precipitation anomaly percentage and I_SP can also be used.In view of the complexity of drought, no single index can fully express its intensity, harm and the potential impact, so the drought index is still being continuously explored and improved.
- staged meteorological drought index;
- Boltzmann function;
- standardization

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References(24)

Figures and Tables

图 1 2009年7月与2008年7月昆明站各等级气象旱涝日数平均发生概率分布

Fig. 1 The average probability distribution of the number of days for different drought and flood degrees in July 2009 and July 2008 at Kunming Station

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

图 2 2009年7月与2008年7月昆明站不同等级气象旱涝日数平均发生概率的累计概率分布

Fig. 2 The average accumulative probability distribution of the number of days for different drought and flood degrees in July 2009 and July 2008 at Kunming Station

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

图 3 1981—2010年7月昆明站不同等级气象旱涝日数平均发生概率的累计概率分布

Fig. 3 The average accumulative probability distribution of the number of days for different drought and flood degrees in July from 1981 to 2010 at Kunming Station

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图 4 昆明站4个时段的逐日降水量演变

(a)2006年7—8月，(b)2006年8—9月，(c)2010年2—3月，(d)2010年3—4月

Fig. 4 The daily variation of precipitation in four periods at Kunming Station

(a) from July to August in 2006, (b) from August to September in 2006, (c) from February to March in 2010, (d) from March to April in 2010

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图 5 昆明站4个月份I_MSP演变 (a)2006年8月，(b)2006年9月，(c)2010年3月，(d)2010年4月

Fig. 5 The daily variation of I_MSP in four months at Kunming Station (a) August 2006, (b) September 2006, (c) March 2010, (d) April 2010

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

图 6 昆明站4个月份各个等级气象旱涝日数的平均发生概率及其累计概率分布

(a)2006年8月，(b)2006年9月，(c)2010年3月，(d)2010年4月

Fig. 6 The probability distribution of the number of days for different drought and flood degrees at Kunming Station

(a) August 2006, (b) September 2006, (c) March 2010, (d) April 2010

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

表 1 昆明站4个时段降水距平百分率、I_SD，I_SDD和I_SP对比

Table 1 The contrast of precipitation anomaly percentage, I_SD, I_SDD and I_SP in four periods at Kunming Station

时间降水距平百分率/% I_SD I_SDD I_SP

2006-08 -42.2 -0.15 -0.87 -1.14

2006-09 -49.7 0.32 -0.40 -1.25

2010-03 38.4 0.67 -0.48 0.78

2010-04 22.6 -0.02 -0.87 0.67

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